Picking the Spread: Week 6

Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow

Charles LeClaire- US Presswire

Ouch! I had my first bad week of the season last week. There were a lot of surprises and a lot of upsets, and what is up with the Green Bay Packers?  A losing record going into week 6 does not sound like the Packers I know. Let’s try this again this week and hopefully pull off 4-0 to make up for last week.

Colts @ NYJ (-3.5): I’m going to give this game to the desperate team here. The New York Jets put up a surprisingly good fight last week against undefeated Houston Texans, only losing 23-17, when many predicted a blow-out. The Indianapolis Colts are coming off a very emotional come-back win against the Packers after being down big at halftime. Now they are going on the road to the Meadowlands against a team hungry for a win.

Even without star cornerback Darelle Revis, the Jets defense may be the strongest match-up that Andrew Luck has faced yet aside from week one. Prior to this week, the strongest defense Luck has faced is the Chicago Bears,where he threw 3 picks and lost big 41-21 on the road. I think the Jets and Rex Ryan will be playing desperately and the Colts will be letting their guard down after their upset win. Jets will cover at home and Mark Sanchez will quiet the crowds for a couple more weeks.

Lions @ Eagles (-3.5):   I’m going with another team in desperation mode, the Detroit Lions. Somehow, the Philadelphia Eagles sit atop the division with the New York Giants in the NFC East. This team is going to explode from the inside soon and not in a good way. Michael Vick will not be able to continue sustaining the beating that he takes every week because that offensive line stinks and he holds onto the ball too long. Through five weeks, in their three wins, the Eagles have won by a combined 4 points in low scoring match-ups and they have only scored more than 20 points in one of their games.

While the Lions defense has not been playing particularly great, they do play aggressive defense and I expect to see Vick on his back many times in this game. Megatron, aka Calvin Johnson, also has yet to break out and I think this is the week that he has a big day as the Lions fight their back from the bottom of the division. Even if they don’t win, I’m going with history and I think it will be another close game that the Lions cover.

Vikings @ Redskins (-2.5): Did you say the Minnesota Vikings are leading their division right now?  I thought so. Nobody predicted that, but Christian Ponder seems to be progressing nicely for the Vikings and is complimenting Adrian Peterson as he continues to run up the charts with 420 total rushing yards so far this season. Percy Harvin is ranked number 11th overall as a wide receiver and becoming one of Ponder’s main targets.

On the other side of the ball, Robert Griffin III had his first injury in the NFL with a bell ringing concussion, but was cleared to play on Wednesday. How is that new concussion rule working out? I think he has a tough time bouncing back this week and probably shouldn’t be out on the field, so he will play more timid than he has through the first five weeks. It looks like this game will be a battle of the offenses this week and I expect a lot of scoring in it. I think Ponder has the edge with experience and continues on their hot streak to win outright.

Patriots @ Seahawks (+3.5): Yes, I know that the Seattle Seahawks are a tough team to beat at home, but now that Bill Belichick has realized that he needs to use Wes Welker  if he wants to win and the New England Patriots have seemed to establish a running game, that makes them pretty scary with Tom Brady behind the wheel. The Patriots seem back in business to me and, while Seattle has impressed so far, I think they stand to be no match up against the strong Patriots offense.

The Patriots have scored 165 points in their first five games, while the Seahawks have only scored 86 points. This will be a battle of good defense against good offense but I think with the spread being much lower than I expected, the Patriots only giving up 3.5 is too tempting. Tom and the Patriots go into Seattle and quite the noise this week.

 

Check out my top four picks every week for Sunday and Monday games and let me know what you think. Follow me on Twitter too @christynepolle.


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