Picking the Spread: Week 8
So I didn’t see the New York Jets forcing the New England Patriots into overtime, but I don’t think many did. That being said, I went 3-1 with my picks last week and feel even better about the picks going into week 8. The AFC is still up in the air and the NFC seems to have their top dogs lined up. This week I have seven NFC teams in my picks and four NFC winners.
Seahawks @ Lions (-2.5): The Seattle Seahawks are doing much better than anyone expected, while the Detroit Lions are worse than anyone expected. The Lions defense has under-performed thus far, and going up against one of the top defenses in the league will be a tough mountain for the offense to climb, especially if they are playing from behind. This week, Nate Burleson suffered a broken leg that required surgery leaving the receiving all to Calvin Johnson. Johnson has had a slow start with only one touchdown and 592 yards receiving. He probably won’t have his break out game against a defense who has already recorded wins against Tony Romo, Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. It’s going to be a close game but Seattle is 4-0 against teams outside the division this season. I think the Seahawks will hold off Matthew Stafford and will win outright.
Jaguars @ Packers (-13.5): Lucky for the Green Bay Packers, and my fantasy team, Rodgers seems to have found his groove and has been firing at will. In his last two wins, he has thrown for nine touchdowns and 680 yards, with no turnovers. Randall Cobb seems to be fitting in nicely due to the injury of Greg Jennings; also good for my fantasy. With both Cobb and Jordy Nelson as options on the offense, it will be tough for any defense to stop the duo going forward, as long as Rodgers continues to fire away like he has been. Do I even need to talk about the Jacksonville Jaguars? While I am hesitant on the huge spread, I may have been convinced to pick the Drew Brees and Peyton Manning battle if the spread was 14 instead, but I think the Packers will win by at least 14 points this week against arguably one of the worst teams in the league.
Falcons @ Eagles (-2.5): I’m still wondering who thinks the Philadelphia Eagles are that good? I have picked against the Eagles twice this season with small spreads and have won both. I’m going for the three game streak as the Atlanta Falcons are the obvious pick here. Matt Ryan is playing some of his best football this season throwing for 1756 yards and 14 touchdowns. The team is still undefeated and while I hate picking teams that are undefeated, I just think the Eagles are struggling too much to be able to hold off the Falcons offense. Teams off the bye have a slightly higher winning record, at 52%, but ironically enough, both teams are coming off the bye so someone has to lose. I don’t think the Falcons will be that team, and the champagne bottles will stay closed for another week. Falcons win outright in Philadelphia.
San Fran @ Arizona (+6.5): I flip-flopped between a couple games before deciding, but I just kept going back to this game. I’m going with my gut. The Arizona Cardinals were lucky in the beginning but that seems to be over as they have lost their last three games. John Skelton has taken over as quarterback while Kevin Kolb is still recovering from a head injury suffered against the Buffalo Bills. Skelton holds the longest active streak in the NFL as he has thrown at least one interception in his last ten consecutive games, including the game against the Bills where he came in for injured Kolb at the end. I don’t see the San Francisco 49er‘s losing too many more games this year and I am not thinking it will be against the Cardinals. For a defensive powerhouse like the 49er’s, when winning the game they have outscored opponents 149-50 this season. I’m going with the visiting team and expecting them to win by at least a touchdown.
Check out my top four picks every week for Sunday and Monday games and let me know what you think. Follow me on Twitter too @christynepolle.
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