NFL Picks: Week 11
Week Eleven: NFL Picks
In case you didn’t know it all ready, the NFL is a quarterback driven league. I’ve always known that but it really hit home on Monday night as I was watching the Pittsburgh Steelers versus the Kansas City Chiefs. Actually the truth is I slept through a lot of the game but I saw enough to draw some fairly obvious conclusions.
As we head down the home stretch and then into the playoffs, if your team does not have an elite quarterback then your chances of winning the whole thing are slim. As great as the Houston Texans look now, who would you pick if it is the Texans versus the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game? Be honest! I would take the Patriots for one reason, Tom Brady is elite and Matt Schaub is not. Schaub is very good but not elite.
Going back to Monday night, what struck me is there really is not that big of a difference between the Steelers and the Chiefs outside of the quarterback. Sure the Steelers are probably a little more talented than the Chiefs, but not by much. However the Steelers are a lot more talented than the Chiefs at the one position that counts, quarterback. Ben Rothlisberger is one of the best in the league and Matt Cassel is one of the worst in the league. That’s the difference between the two teams and we saw what happened to the Steelers after Rothlisberger left the game with an injury. They went from an elite team to a very average team that quick.
So what’s the point? It’s very simple; if your favorite team has one of those elite quarterbacks then you have a shot to be a very happy person in early February. If your team does not have one of those elite quarterbacks, then it’s going to be awfully tough.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Two weeks ago, the Miami Dolphins looked like one of the surprise teams in the NFL. They played well in a road loss to the Indianapolis Colts but then were routed at home by a mediocre Tennessee Titans team. On the other sideline, the Buffalo Bills have turned in two straight good performances in close losses to the Houston Texans and New England Patriots. The Dolphins are trending down and the Bills are trending up, so give me the Bills.
Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons
This is a bad spot for the Arizona Cardinals; the Atlanta Falcons are coming off of their first loss of the season and will be looking to get back on track. This one could get ugly in a hurry. I’ll take the Falcons, big!
Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys
As bad as the Dallas Cowboys have been at times this season, they still have a shot to get back into the playoff race. The division is not very good and the Cowboys have an easy schedule coming up. This is the type of game that the Cowboys should win but always find a way to lose, so be aware of any pick on this one. The Browns seem to play everyone tough but always find a way to lose and they will again versus the Cowboys.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
The Green Bay Packers are playing great football right now and will look to keep it rolling versus the Detroit Lions. This is a classic matchup of two teams who have similar talent but a completely different makeup. The Packers know how to win and the Lions do not. For that reason, the Packers continue to roll!
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
The Cincinnati Bengals are playing to get back into the playoff race and the Kansas City Chiefs are just trying to find another win. The Chiefs put forward a great effort on Monday night versus the Steelers and fell just short. They won’t be able to muster that kind of effort two weeks in a row, and the Bengals simply have more talent. The Bengals win but closer than most think.
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins
I’m picking this game because I have to but does anyone really care? The Philadelphia Eagles are a mess, Andy Reid is on his way out, Michael Vick is out and they look disinterested. The Redskins have very little talent outside of Robert Griffin III and Mike Shanahan has started calling guys out. The Redskins are at home so I’ll take them.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Believe it or not, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are one of the better teams in football right now. The Carolina Panthers, on the other hand, are in disarray. The Buccaneers will be able to score points at will and Cam Newton will do what he always does when the going gets tough, he’ll quit. The Buccaneers keep rolling with a big win.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
The Houston Texans are coming off of an impressive win over the Chicago Bears while the Jacksonville Jaguars are trying to figure out which way is up. This game has blowout written all over it and that’s the way I’m going. The Texans move to 9-1 with an easy win.
New York Jets at St. Louis Rams
There’s not much else to say about the New York Jets, they are one of the worst teams in football despite what the players and coaches say. The Jets are in a complete downward spiral and the St. Louis Rams are playing decent football. These are two teams going in different directions; give me the one on the way up. The Rams win, easy.
New Orleans Saints at Oakland Raiders
The Oakland Raiders gave up 55 points to the Baltimore Ravens last week and now they play the New Orleans Saints. Drew Brees and the Saints offense are on fire, and they will put a big number up on the Raiders. Every passing and scoring record is in danger this weekend in Oakland. The Saints keep rolling!
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos
The season turned for both the Denver Broncos and San Diego Chargers in the second half of the October meeting. The Chargers were rolling and on their way to a two game lead in the division, and then Manning happened. The Broncos scored 35 second half points to get the win and haven’t been challenged since. Meanwhile, the Chargers have only one win since that night and are right on the ledge. The Broncos will push them over that ledge with their fifth straight win.
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
No one thought this one would be a big game when the season started, but the Indianapolis Colts versus the New England Patriots is a huge game in the AFC playoff picture. The Colts and Andrew Luck are a terrific story, and they will continue to be. However they are not quite ready to play with a team like the Patriot yet, but this one will be fun to watch. Pats win but its close.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
This one was supposed to be the game of the week and it still might be but, it is going to be tough for the Pittsburgh Steelers to beat the Baltimore Ravens without Ben Rothlisberger. All early indications are that Rothlisberger will be out for at least this game, and I don’t see the Steelers beating the Ravens without him. The Ravens win a hard-fought, defensive battle.
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers
Week eleven closes with two of the best teams in the NFC facing off as the San Francisco 49ers host the Chicago Bears. Both starting quarterbacks are questionable after suffering concussions making this one difficult to pick. The 49ers are at home and have a better backup quarterback, so I’ll take them but keep an eye on that quarterback situation.
It was a tough week in week ten, we’ll see if week eleven has better things in store.
Week 10 record- 8-5-1 Overall record-20-7-1
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