The battle for rookie of the year in the NFL this year is coming down to the smallest of margins. Depending on who you talk to, it’s going to come down to Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck. The national spotlight for some reason has been focused on Griffin all year and really considers Luck an after thought. Right now many experts say it’s Griffin’s race to lose.
I honestly think not so fast that Luck should win the award based off a number of factors but none more than one stat. The rookie of the year is similar to the MVP award. It’s a popularity vote, but does go to what it stands for; Most Valuable Player.
Last year, the Indianapolis Colts were a dismal 1-7 in games decided by one possession. They didn’t have the play to close out games and get just one more field goal or touchdown. This season, the Colts have improved dramatically in one possession games as they’re 7-1 on the season entering the final four weeks.
Credit Luck for that turnaround.
The Colts did a huge overhaul this past off-season and brought in 30 guys with two years or fewer NFL experience. Luck is literally throwing to rookie receivers and tight ends (minus Reggie Wayne) and making them look good. Some people may fire back that maybe it was the other rookies around him making him better. This next stat will dispel that.
Luck has led the Colts to five game-winning drives this season by himself which is tied for an NFL record among rookies. Griffin has a grand total of one game winning drives and is 4-5 in games decided on one possession. The Washington Redskins are only one win better this year currently than last while the Colts are six games with four weeks left.
The schedule favors the Colts as they should go 3-1 if not 2-2 at worse to finish 11-5 or 10-6. That would be between a 8-9 win differential between this year and last that can be all credited to one guy in Luck. The Redskins will go 2-2 at best to close out the year and only finish 8-8 on best case scenario. That’s only a win margin of three from last year.
Mix in Luck is breaking nearly every rookie record and only needs just over 400 yards to break Cam Newton’s passing yard record. He has over 1,000 more yards than Griffin through the air and should make the playoffs where Griffin likely won’t. It’s a no brainer here who’s the better quarterback and who should win the rookie of the year.