Denver Broncos 3 Most Under- and Overvalued Players From 2012
Manning Might Have a Different View Than PFF
The Denver Broncos received enormously efficient play for most of the 2012 NFL season from many of its young players such as Chris Harris, Rahim Moore, Demaryius Thomas and others. Recently, profootballfocus.com unveiled their algorithm for performance based value among individual players as well as teams. Whether you buy into this way of thinking, it must be noted that they are not way off base with their declarations.
While I might not agree with some of their findings, such as Peyton Manning being overvalued, the basis for any argument of this sort is just that: it is an argument. Anyone can look at the list presented by PFF and realize that there are some issues.
Manning was the reason the Broncos went as far as they did, yet PFF claims he is not worth the money given. How about Champ Bailey, who had one relativelybad game, be overvalued as well? You might be surprised at who they say is the most overvalued player on the Broncos.
So yes, we can debate all day long, and this list is only going to provide you with the top three overvalued and undervalued players from the 2012 Broncos. You can take it for what it is worth and feel free to check out all players that PFF came up with, too. They list 33 players on the roster as having positive value, while 28 received negative value.
PFF did say this, however, when summing up the Broncos as a whole:
"There’s no other way to spin it, the Broncos killed it with finding regular season value. Even counting how much they’re overpaying Dumervil the tremendous value they’re getting throughout the team (especially on defense) is a testament to an extremely well built roster."
So let the fodder begin. "Rant" your views below on the Broncos listed here, as well as others that were given their value, good or bad.
Undervalued No. 3 Demaryius Thomas
Demaryius Thomas was one half of arguably the best wide receiver duo in the NFL last season. PFF had this to say about the young wide-out:
"His breakout year saw him reel in a number of spectacular catches, finish second overall in our wide receiver rankings and average a quite ridiculous 2.5 yards per route run. His cap hit isn’t designed to be team friendly, but his performances ensured that it is."
2012 Cap Hit: $5.1m
2012 Performance Based Value: $10.5m
Value Differential: +$5.3m
I couldn't agree more. Thomas made some early dumb moves fumbling in open space, but focused to have a great season for the Broncos. The Broncos must ride this horse now because his pay day will surely come.
Undervalued No. 2 Chris Harris
Chris Harris was the ultimate surprise other than Wesley Woodyard on the defensive side of the ball. His shut-down ways complimented Bailey on the opposite side and helped transform the Broncos into a number two defense. PFF had this to say about Harris:
"There are those who will probably say Harris had an easier job of things with Champ Bailey tracking a team’s top receiver. That only tells half the story, with Harris not only coping outside, but showing his worth as a slot cornerback who proved capable of defending two-way releases."
2012 Cap Hit: $475k
2012 Performance Based Value: $9.4m
Value Differential: +$8.9m
Harris will undoubtedly be waiting for his salary increase soon, especially with another big year in 2013.
Undervalued No. 1 Von Miller
Von Miller was my choice for Defensive Player of the Year, not because I write on the Broncos, but after watching him game after game, no other player does what he is capable of doing. Nobody! PFF seems to agree because they state:
"His 86 combined sacks, hits and hurries were the joint most of any defensive player, and what makes that all the more impressive is the nature of them...Not only that, but Miller is exceptional at getting off blocks in the run game to make plays, and made 15 tackles for losses. He’s every bit the playmaker he was drafted to be and near impossible to overvalue."
2012 Cap Hit: $4.8m
2012 Performance Based Value: $18m
Value Differential: +$13.2m
Miller is the complete linebacker. He proved that in his rookie year and followed that with a solid sophomore season. If this play continues, his prediction of a Super Bowl win for the Broncos may not be that far-fetched.
Overvalued No. 3 Tracy Porter
This touchdown return for Tracy Porter against the Pittsburgh Steelers in week one was the highlight of his season. After not playing for most of the year with seizure symptoms, a concussion and whatever else ailed him, it is no surprise that PFF had this to say:
"...injury saw him leave the line-up and the fine form of Chris Harris and Tony Carter would ensure there wasn’t a spot for him when he was deemed healthy enough."
2012 Cap Hit: $4m
2012 Performance Based Value: $700K
Value Differential: -$3.3m
Harris and Carter, along with Porter's injuries, have all but assured that he will not return for a second season in Denver.
Overvalued No. 2 Chris Kuper
Chris Kuper has been a solid guard over his career in Denver, but 2012 saw him miss substantial time due to injuries. His play suffered, and so did the play of the offensive line, sans Ryan Clady. PFF seems to agree that his value suffered solely to lack of time on the field:
"His pass blocking when he came in was fine, and though he struggled to get much push in the running game he wasn’t a liability. Sometimes it’s just all about the playing time."
2012 Cap Hit: $4.5m
2012 Performance Based Value: $1m
Value Differential: -$3.4m
With a healthy Kuper, this line is all the better, but the Broncos are going to have a rough go of it this offseason with four out of five linemen rehabbing injuries.
Overvalued No. 1 Elvis Dumervil
When I first saw this, I thought it was a severe misprint. How can Elvis Dumervil record 11.5 sacks, and consistently be a force at the line be considered overvalued? Well, PFF set me straight with this:
His 60 combined sacks, hits and hurries isn’t a terrible return for a pass rusher, but when you get swallowed up as much in the run game as Dumervil and get flagged for eight penalties, are you really worth such a big cap hit?
2012 Cap Hit: $15.6m
2012 Performance Based Value: $1.6m
Value Differential: -$14m
I'm still not convinced he was only worth $1.6 million in 2012. If that's the case, I'll take Dwight Freeney and Osi Umenyora for a cool $2 million, Bob!