NFL Draft 2013: Who Should Go No.1 Overall?

By Rick Stavig
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

As we get closer and closer to the 2013 NFL Draft, one thing becomes more and more apparent: there’s no sure-fire No.1 overall pick.  This is somewhat of a rarity, folks.  Usually, in draft classes that aren’t known for their top-tier talent or depth, there’s at least a quarterback worthy of the first selection.

But not this year.  No Andrew Luck.  No Cam Newton or Eli Manning.  Heck, not even a physical marvel worthy of comparison to a mythical god like Mario Williams coming out in 2006.

Considering no one in the world knows who will be picked first by the Kansas City Chiefs (no, not even new head coach Andy Reid), there’s ample room for pure speculation.  We first heard it would be West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Geno Smith (and didn’t we all get a rise out of the people that actually believed that?), until the Chiefs picked up a recycled Alex Smith, thus eliminating a quarterback at the top.

After that, most began predicting Texas A&M’s left tackle Luke Joeckel, one of only a few players who make sense with the first pick.  Then the floodgates opened, and now we’re hearing of possibly DT Sharrif Floyd (Florida Gators) or CB Dee Milliner (Alabama Crimson Tide).

Let’s get this out of the way.  No, there will not be a quarterback taken number one overall this year by the Chiefs. There’s a slight (incredibly slight) chance someone trades with the Chiefs to take Geno Smith or another quarterback, but that wouldn’t make any sense.  There are no future elite signal callers in this draft.  Realistically, there shouldn’t be any quarterbacks taken in the first round at all.  Obviously there will be, but not based on pure talent, that’s just the economics of the game.  This isn’t a good year for quarterbacks, that was last year.  So no, a quarterback won’t be the first pick.

What about Floyd?  Well, history isn’t on his side.  A defensive tackle hasn’t gone number one overall since Dan Wilkinson was selected by the Cincinnati Bengals in 1994.  Granted, Floyd is an elite talent.  Heck, he always has been.  I remember grading him out at a top 5 level overall nationally coming out of George Washington High School (Philadelphia, PA) back in 2010.  He did nothing to disappoint in Gainesville, either.

Floyd has the perfect size for a penetrating 3-tech in a 4-3 scheme, but has the strength and athleticism to play all along the line if necessary (as was the case at Florida).  Many are also predicting he hasn’t even tapped into his true pass rushing potential, and could turn into another J.J. Watt once he gets to ‘The League’.  Overall, he’s better suited for a 4-3, and the Chiefs have made it known they’re sticking with the 3-4.  I doubt Floyd goes #1.

Milliner?  Milliner is exactly what you look for in an elite cornerback.  Great size (6’1” 200lbs), speed (blazing 4.37 40), pedigree (a defensive back disciple hailing from Nick Saban? Not too shabby), and production (unanimous All-American).  Would he be a good fit in the Chiefs defense?  Yes, absolutely.  He’s been playing in a 3-4 ever since Saban brought him into Tuscaloosa, and is very well versed in the complexities of the scheme.  History isn’t on Milliner’s side, however, as he’d be the first cornerback taken number one overall.  He’s good enough to go here, but I doubt he does.

Which leads us to Joeckel.  There’s no doubt he’s a blind side protector, he’s been hailed as a true left tackle since he first suited up for the Aggies.  At 6’6”, 306lbs with excellent wings (34.25″ arms) and tremendous footwork, this is the guy who should go number one overall.  Not only does he have the talent for the selection, but he plays a premium position, and the Chiefs have a hole there.  Branden Albert was franchised by the Chiefs, meaning he’s really only going to be there one more year, and they released right tackle Eric Winston, so this is desperately a need position.  Also, if anyone is familiar with coach Reid, you know how much he likes taking offensive linemen early on.

This would be a solid selection by the Chiefs, instantly filling a hole for the next decade.

Rick Stavig is a National Recruiting Columnist for In addition to covering College Football, he also covers the NFL and NFL Draft.  Follow him on Twitter @rickstavig or add him to your network on google.

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