2013 NFL Draft: Week 3 Update 1 Round Mock
2013 NFL Draft
Everyone loves a good mystery. So if you are a fan, then the 2013 NFL draft should be right up your alley. This has been one of the most fascinating offseasons that I can recall. I have never seen a draft with so little consensus among draft writers and pundits about who the best players are at any given position. Even the top overall spot, which by now is usually set this year is completely up in the air.
To take it a step further, no one is even sure if the Kansas City Chiefs, who hold that top overall pick, will even be the one making it. Typically the top overall pick in a given draft is worth a king’s ransom on the open market. However this year with so much confusion about who the top players even are, the price for that pick is down. The Chiefs would certainly like to move out of that pick if possible and stockpile some picks, and they should be able to, assuming their asking price isn’t too high.
But beyond the Chiefs and that top pick there are some significant changes in this week’s mock draft update. Pro days and private workouts along with medical checks drive much of this week’s movers along with more significant free agent signings. The draft is just over four weeks away so of course a ton will change between now and then. There are still some big name free agents out there, and once they are signed should impact the draft needs in the first round of several teams.
1.1-Kansas City Chiefs-Luke Joeckel, OT Texas A&M
Joeckel remains my pick here for the Chiefs as trade talks heat up for offensive tackle Branden Albert. Joeckel is the top player in this draft, and even if Albert isn't dealt it would be tough to pass on him.
1.2-Jacksonville Jaguars-Geno Smith, QB West Virginia
I've contended all along that the Jaguars have to be looking quarterback first in this draft. Jaguars fans have been adamant that the Jaguars need other positions more, but the fact is Smith is the top quarterback in this draft, and with a new head coach and new ownership it's hard to imagine they don't want a new quarterback.
1.3-Oakland Raiders-Star Lotulelei, DT Utah
A clean bill of health moves Lotulelei back up to the top of the first round. The Raiders will likely be in the mix to trade up to No. 1 overall to get Smith, but if they stay put Lotulelei is the best player on the board that fills a need.
1.4-Philadelphia Eagles-Eric Fisher, OT Central Michigan
The Eagles need offensive tackle and defensive end in the worst way. I've had them taking a defensive end almost exclusively to this point, but rumors are swirling that the Eagles are very high on Fisher and his ability to run block.
1.5-Detroit Lions-Barkevious Mingo, DE LSU
The Lions defense took some hits in free agency this offseason, one of which was defensive end Cliff Avril. Replacing him needs to be a top priority, and Mingo looks to have the type of skills that would complement that strong Lions interior defensive line.
1.6-Cleveland Browns-Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Tennessee
The Browns could go a number of directions here, but with the progress they have made in free agency, they should have the luxury to go with a player like Patterson a little early. Patterson is dynamic after the catch and would be a great pairing to the rest of those Browns offensive tools.
1.7-Arizona Cardinals-Dion Jordan, DE/LB Oregon
There's a part of me that wants to put a quarterback here for the Cardinals, but the organization sounds like they aren't in any hurry to reach out for a rookie quarterback. Instead the Cardinals turn their attention to the defense and add a big explosive pass rusher in Jordan.
1.8-Buffalo Bills-Matt Barkley, QB USC
I really don't like this pick. Not at all. But the Bills seems committed to drafting a quarterback, and I don't think they can wait. Barkley is not the player I would put in here, but this is a prediction of what might happen, not what I would do, so I lean to the hype and put Barkley here. A defensive end would make sense here as well, along with a wide receiver.
1.9-New York Jets-Ezekial Ansah, DE/LB BYU
The Jets have struggled to rush the passer for the past several seasons, so I plug in Ansah and all his potential here. He's a big, athletic guy with limited experience but what seems to be an unlimited ceiling. He could move to outside linebacker in the 3-4 where he can focus on coming off the edge.
1.10-Tennessee Titans-Dee Milliner, CB Alabama
The Titans have done a nice job putting together some solid pieces on defense, but the defensive secondary is a high priority. Milliner isn't my top cornerback, but most projections have him coming off the board first, so he gets plugged in here to the Titans. The fact that he could probably play from free safety if need be early on is a plus.
1.11-San Diego Chargers-Lane Johnson, OT Oklahoma
This pick has been written in pen for a long time. Offensive tackle is far and away their greatest need, and Johnson is the top player left on the board and the last elite left tackle prospect in this draft. Johnson is very athletic and if he can get stronger could end up one of the top left tackles in the league.
1.12-Miami Dolphins-Desmond Trufant, CB Washington
It's good to see so much of the draft community finally getting on board with Trufant. He is a special player and would be a day one starter for the Dolphins. This pick will hinge on whether or not the Dolphins can fill their tackle needs via free agency.
1.13-Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Sharrif Floyd, DT Florida
The Buccaneers have multiple holes on defense that need to be taken care of. Because of that, I go with the best player on the board that fills one of those needs in Floyd. Some consider Floyd a top 5 prospect so getting him at 13 would be considered a steal.
1.14-Carolina Panthers-Sheldon Richardson, DT Missouri
Back to back athletic defensive linemen with Richardson going to the Panthers. The other needs the Panthers have aren't really good value picks at 14, but Richardson is well worth it. He's a penetrating pass rusher who has a suddenness to his game and rare physical gifts.
1.15-New Orleans Saints-Jarvis Jones, DE/LB Georgia
I am not at all convinced that the moves the Saints have made toward the switch to the 3-4 defense are adequate, especially at the rush outside linebacker position. Jones is one of the five best players in this draft on defense and would represent a great value here at 15. Assuming Jones is healthy he'll turn out to be a real steal here.
1.16-St. Louis Rams-Tavon Austin, WR WVU
After losing wide receiver Danny Amendola to free agency, the Rams have to be thinking about replacing him early in a loaded wide receiver class. Austin might be the most explosive player in this entire draft with the football in his hands whether it's as a running back or wide receiver. He'd fill a dual role for a Rams team in dire need of playmakers on offense.
1.17-Pittsburgh Steelers-Kenny Vaccaro, S Texas
The Steelers are another team with multiple holes to fill on defense, which means they take the highest rated player on their board with this pick, and tailor the rest of the draft around them. Vaccaro is far and away the best safety in this draft, and would be a day one starter, even if it's only as a nickel cornerback. Vaccaro's skills are elite among safeties as he can play the run with physicality and shows tremendous range in man coverage as well.
1.18-Dallas Cowboys-Chance Warmack, OG Alabama
The Cowboys get a real bargain at 18 with Warmack who is one of the top offensive players in this entire draft. The Cowboys need a guard without a doubt, and Warmack is a full blown road grader who can just overpower defensive players.
1.19-New York Giants-Tank Carradine, DE FSU
If Carradine were 100% right now, he'd probably be a top 10-12 pick. But with some questions about how ready for the season he will be as he rehabs a knee injury does impact his draft status. The Giants should be able to use a player like Carradine in multiple sets and utilize his excellent combination of size and speed to terrorize quarterbacks.
1.20-Chicago Bears-Arthur Brown, LB K-State
With the likelihood of linebacker Brian Urlacher to the Bears less and less likely, the need for a new middle linebacker becomes more important. Brown is a missile at inside linebacker with sideline to sideline range and amazing instincts and athleticism.
1.21-Cincinnati Bengals-Bjoern Werner, DE FSU
The Bengals have other needs that are likely more pressing than defensive end, but the talent at those positions just doesn't weigh out very well at this point in the round. Werner is an excellent football player how is a great pass rusher when putting forth maximum effort. It appears as if the Bengals are going to be able to retain offensive tackle Andre Smith so right tackle won't be a need, and there isn't really a good value for taking a running back or safety at this point in the round.
1.22-St. Louis Rams (from Washington)-Jonathan Cooper, OG North Carolina
Even with the addition of tackle Jake Long, the Rams offensive line can still use more talent. Cooper is nearly as good as Warmack and in some ways, especially his quick feet and ability to get to the second level. The Rams have the luxury of a pick like Cooper having an additional 1st round pick. Adding Cooper and Austin in the first round will let them focus on defense after this point.
1.23-Minnesota Vikings-Xavier Rhodes, CB FSU
As I look over the Vikings roster, it seems to me that they are very thin at cornerback and linebacker. So looking at the two positions, Rhodes at cornerback represents a better value at 23 than the next best linebacker would. The Vikings have an additional 1st round pick after their trade so they can address another need later in the round.
1.24-Indianapolis Colts-Damontre Moore, LB Texas A&M
In the wake of likely losing linebacker Dwight Freeney to free agency, replacing him and creating a pass rush rotation is a top priority. Moore slides in the round because he lacks the elite athleticism of some of the other rushers in this draft, but he's incredibly productive and has shown success in multiple formations and positions.
1.25-Minnesota Vikings (from Seattle)-DeAndre Hopkins, WR Clemson
The Vikings were able to sign free agent Greg Jennings at wide receiver, but that doesn't mean you pass on a player like Hopkins to further bolster the struggling Vikings offense. Hopkins is such an underrated prospect, and does all the little things you expect from a great wide out.
1.26-Green Bay Packers-Alec Ogletree, LB Georgia
Ogletree slides to 26 here in light of some off-field concerns as well as some limitations that have shown up on film. He's a violent and aggressive player who finds himself out of position at times, but for the Packers he'd be a great injection of speed and strength at any of the linebacker positions.
1.27-Houston Texans-Keenan Allen, WR Cal
The Texans choose to go with best player available here with Allen. He's got a lot of Reggie Wayne in his game and would be a great complement to wide receiver Andre Johnson on the outside. The Texans have other positions of higher priority, but Allen is too good to pass on this late in the round.
1.28-Denver Broncos-Alex Okafor, DE Texas
Now that the Broncos have lost defensive end Elvis Dumervil, the need for a pass rusher becomes a top priority. Okafor is the top pass rusher left on the board and his ability to not only rush the passer, but to be able to set the edge as a run defender makes him an excellent fit for the Broncos and a very good pick this late.
1.29-New England Patriots-Sylvester Williams, DT North Carolina
Williams looks just like a Patriots type of pick. He's an athletic defensive tackle prospect who looks like he can play multiple spots in the Patriots complex defensive fronts. If Williams was a better tackler he'd be a top 15 pick, but he can be coached up.
1.30-Atlanta Falcons-Johnthan Banks, CB Mississippi State
The Falcons have made a very good signing in defensive end Osi Umenyiora to eliminate one need. This allows them to instead shift their attention to adding another starting cornerback. Banks has been in and out of the first round the entire offseason for me and would be a very nice value pick here at this point to fill a definite need for the Falcons.
1.31-San Francisco 49ers-Jesse Williams, DT Alabama
The 49ers have the luxury of taking the best player available at this point, and for a team that utilizes a massive nose tackle prospect, Williams represents very much the best player. Williams is more than a simple 0-technique nose, who has a good level of athleticism but his game is built all around power. Williams would likely be plugged in as the starting nose tackle very early.
1.32-Baltimore Ravens-Jonathan Cyprien, S FIU
The Ravens seem to be gutting out their roster, especially on defense. But after bringing in an elite pass rusher in Elvis Dumervil, they can turn their attention to replacing safety Ed Reed at the end of the round with Cyprien. Cyprien is a rangy and physical safety he can hone his skills in the NFL after his career against some lower level competition.