The Minnesota Vikings‘ pass offense can go as far as Christian Ponder can take them. Ditto for the run game and Adrian Peterson. The major question entering 2013 is whether Ponder’s extremely poor play the conservative game plan’s that are built around his weaknesses — dare it continue into 2013 — could eventually have impacting consequences for Adrian Peterson‘s fantasy value.
(The following analysis is based on FantasyPros.com aggregate average draft position drawn from major websites. The first number in parenthesis is ADP overall in a non-PPR format; the second is ADP by position. I am not saying these players will be terrible or amazing, just that I see them significantly outperforming or underperforming their fantasy value at the current ADP.)
Underrated: Cordarrelle Patterson (142, 50), Vikings Defense (248, 21)
Whether Ponder or Matt Cassell is taking over at quarterback, we’re left with little reason to believe this passing game isn’t crippled. However, the one player that can have some immunity from this is the Percy Harvin type. Enter first-rounder Patterson, who is Pro Football Focus grading’s No. 7-ranked receiver this preseason. Patterson has the electricity to turn Ponder quick-hits into big gains. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s defense could very well improve considerably with first-rounders DL Sharrif Floyd and CB Xavier Rhodes along with S Harrison Smith entering his second year.
Overrated: Adrian Peterson (1,1), Greg Jennings (82, 33)
I am not arguing against taking Peterson No. 1 overall in a fantasy draft, but that it’s not an unquestionable selection. Those who say it’s stupid not to take Peterson are also often the same people who worry about running backs who top the 350-carry mark, and Peterson neared 400 last season. I also worry about defensive coordinators adjusting to the utter lack of pass threat out of the QB position, which Jennings could suffer from with his new team.