Of all the times filled with great uncertainty in the NFL, the Washington Redskins are hardest for me to gauge. They don’t have any potential massive suspensions looming or very much roster turnover. It all comes down to 1) How Robert Griffin III stays 100 percent healthy with the reconstructed knee after missing (presumably) all of preseason 2) How this offense adapts to RG3′s injury and if it can find similar success despite scaling back the quarterback runs.
Obviously, the fantasy value and win-loss differential associated to Griffin’s performance are absolutely huge. You won’t find me on the Kirk Cousins bandwagon based off his limited work last season.
(The following analysis is based on FantasyPros.com aggregate average draft position drawn from major websites. The first number in parenthesis is ADP overall in a non-PPR format; the second is ADP by position. I am not saying these players will be terrible or amazing, just that I see them significantly outperforming or underperforming their fantasy value at the current ADP.)
Underrated: Pierre Garcon (58, 22), Fred Davis (153, 17)
It’s difficult to remember considering that he only record 48 catches last season but Garcon ranked at the top-end of receiver No. 1 over the final month last season, and was arguably the most dangerous receiver after the catch. Meanwhile, Davis has quietly been one of the best tight ends in the league in 2012 and I believe RG3 wouldn’t found his tight ends more if Davis didn’t hit IR so early.
Overrated: Robert Griffin III (64, 9), Roy Helu, Jr. (235, 56)
RGIII led the league among quarterbacks in rushing last season and I expect the Shanahan to scale back his carry total drastically. This should be a run-heavy offense that decreases the QB run and this could bump Griffin out of the top ten QBs in fantasy. Helu had a nice long touchdown run against the Pittsburgh Steelers‘ reserves Monday night but his fantasy value is greatly sapped by Alfred Morris clearing 300 carries in all likelihood while increasing his role in the pass game. This is nothing against Helu, just Morris is awesome and has a good health record.