The Kansas City Chiefs come into the first game of the NFL regular season with a new quarterback in Alex Smith, new head coach in Andy Reid and new general manager John Dorsey. Each comes with a good pedigree and the fans of the Chiefs are hopeful for the quick turnaround from worst to at least playoff contention.
Their opponent, the Jacksonville Jaguars, tied the Chiefs for the worst record in the league last year. The Jaguars get back their Pro Bowl running back in Maurice Jones-Drew but still have potentially the worst starting quarterback in the league in Blaine Gabbert, a former first-round pick with the title of “Bust” roaming over his head.
The line for the Chiefs at Jaguars opened at -3.5 for the Chiefs. It has now gone up to -4 in some books, but I still think it doesn’t matter. I don’t see the Jaguars scoring more than 14 points in this game, because the Chiefs have a really good defense. So the question really lies with the Chiefs’ offense. Last year they only averaged 13 points a game, but that was under Romeo Crennel, whom was once asked why Jamaal Charles had less than ten touches in a game and his answer was “I don’t know.”
The Chiefs may not rack up the points on offense by itself, but given that their special teams is much improved under Dave Toub, who made Devin Hester famous for the Chicago Bears, it’s not insane to think that they will put up 20 or more which would put them at a comfortable cover.
I expect the Chiefs’ defense to set up at least one scoring opportunity and the special teams to set up another. So if the offense can just get 10-14 points the Chiefs cover and cover comfortably. Take the Chiefs -4, feel good about picking your team to cover (which also means they win), and have fun watching the game.