Indianapolis, IN- The Indianapolis Colts (9-5) travel to Arrowhead Stadium Sunday to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (11-3). Most are considering this game to be kind of lopsided as they expect the Chiefs to manhandle this Colts team at home.
In reality, though, this game should be closer than most people think.
Everyone is going to look at the Colts’ struggles to run the ball and protect Andrew Luck going against a Chiefs team that has one of the best if not the best pass rush in the NFL. The pressure Kansas City brings forces a lot of turnovers as they get a lot of interceptions and fumble recoveries.
Everyone will also look at how the Chiefs have put up 45 and 56 points on the scoreboard the last two weeks respectively. Mix that with playing in front of a raucous crowd in Arrowhead and this game could be swayed towards Kansas City very easily.
But if you look at bit deeper, Indianapolis could actually win this game.
The Colts’ defense played a lot better Sunday giving up only three points while intercepting Case Keenum twice and sacking him four times. Kansas City doesn’t have the best offense in the world as they are game managers on that side of the ball.
Yes, Jamaal Charles scored five touchdowns last Sunday, but look at who it was against. The Oakland Raiders have done nothing against Kansas City this year. They’ve given them most of their defensive stats. Outside of the seven turnovers last week, the Raiders still put up 31 points.
Reality is Kansas City’s once dominant defense is reeling. They’ve given up 27 or more points in five of the last six weeks. Outside of the Washington Redskins game two weeks ago, the defense has only two sacks since Week 8.
Speaking of Week 8, that’s the last time Kansas City won a home game. They’ve lost their last two at home and barely won the two prior as they beat the Cleveland Browns 23-17 on October 27 and the Houston Texans 17-16 the week before.
All Indianapolis has to do is not turn the ball over, play decent defense and not allow Kansas City to get going in the return game. As I said earlier, this Chiefs’ offense will give Indianapolis opportunities. The Colts have to shut down Charles in the run game and keep an eye on him when he comes out of the backfield to run routes.
They don’t want to make this a shootout. Make this a possession to possession low scoring game and Indianapolis can win Sunday. If they allow Kansas City to convert third downs and show little resistance then it could be a long day.
Kansas City thrives on getting points on defense and special teams. They’ve scored four touchdowns the last three weeks on defense and special teams which is where they get their momentum. If Indianapolis can maximize cover kicks and punts and play defense then they will win this game.