Super Bowl Pick Against The Spread

Broncos

Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports

It has been 22 weeks since the start of the NFL season. On Sunday, it will mark 150 days, which amounts to over 216,000 minutes, or almost 13 million minutes since Peyton Manning torched the Baltimore Ravens for seven touchdowns.

Since then we saw every quarterback record broken, 152 players left games with a concussion, two Super Bowl candidates have the top six picks in the draft, Tom Brady somehow getting a bye without five of his top six targets from the season before, Cam Newton showing that he should not be forgotten, Robert Griffin III maybe taking a back seat, Matt Flynn needed four teams to finally get a starting job and much more. This season has been a roller coaster ride for all 32 franchises.

Finally, we are to Super Bowl week. The playoffs were just as exciting as the season and the best teams are now set to play.  The number one offense will take on the number one defense. It is Richard Sherman taking on Manning. Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch taking on Pot Roast. The matchups can go on and on.

So where do you go with the pick?

Denver Broncos (-2.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks

Can you bet against Manning here?  Should you look at when the Oakland Raiders played the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and be weary of how great offenses play great defenses? Will the weather be a factor?

Too many questions need to be answered.  The two weeks in-between games gives you extra time to analyze the game. There are thousands of stats going around saying why one team or the other will win. Millions of dollars will be gambled between the many prop bets and the game itself.

This game’s line moved a lot since it came out.  Now the Denver Broncos are favored by 2.5 based on the way the public has bet.  People are putting their money on Manning. While I can’t blame them, I have to disagree with them.

I think the Seattle Seahawks defense is perfect to play this Broncos team.  They are deep at cornerback, so they can cover Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker better than every other team.  They have some of the best defensive ends in the league in Red Bryant, Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril and Chris Clemons.  They are going to get to Manning, which has yet to happen in the postseason.  There is going to be a defensive or special teams touchdown (prop bet alert!) scored by the Seahawks that will push them over the edge.  It will be a relatively low scoring affair, which is right in this team’s wheelhouse.

The experience is a concern, but not the biggest factor.  The only way that the Hawks can blow it is if Pete Carroll over thinks the game and gets out coached by John Fox.  Even with that risk, I am still going with the Seahawks.

Denver 24 Seattle 28

Playoff Record: 4-6

2013 Season: 135-118-2

 


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