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Who’s the Better NFL Draft Prospect, Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston?

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By @rickstavig

Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston

Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports

Two quarterbacks are starting to really separate themselves from the rest of the pack in the 2015 NFL Draft class. You can probably correctly assume they’re Oregon’s Marcus Mariota and Florida State’s Jameis Winston.

Now, before we even go further, we have to realize that they’re still underclassmen as Mariota is a redshirt junior and Winston a redshirt sophomore, so they may not even be in next May’s draft. But considering they’re both looking like top-five picks, let’s assume they’ll go pro, just for sake of the argument. Who should go No. 1?

We’ll break them down in a few ways: size, arm strength, accuracy, mechanics, mobility, durability and intangibles.

As far as size goes, it’s pretty close with Winston only having a slight edge. Mariota is 6-foot-4, 220 pounds and Winston 6-foot-4, 230 pounds. Winston does have a thicker frame but it’s not like the former can’t put on 10 pounds of muscle in the future. This is practically a wash.

In regards to arm strength, also close to a wash when both set their feet properly. Both have plus-strength arms and the ability to make all the throws you need to make at the NFL level. Their arm strength is also evident when throwing on the run. If you had to give an edge to one, it’d go to Winston, who generates a ton of velocity on his deep and intermediate throws.

Accuracy is another close call, with both having impressive arms in that category. The difference is Winston is more consistent with his accuracy, particularly in the face of pressure. But again, when they set their feet in the pocket, plus accuracy for both. Another slight edge to Winston.

Mechanics is an interesting area to look at. Winston’s release is rather slow and encumbered with a dragging windup. He also doesn’t consistently step into his throws, which would give him even greater arm strength and accuracy than he already has. Mariota has a very quick release, smooth windup and delivery and great feet in the pocket. Edge to Mariota.

Mobility is clearly a major strength of Mariota, evidenced by his estimated 4.5 40 and 1,623 rushing yards in 29 games. He has long strides and looks like a gazelle on film. Winston has above average speed and can run when he needs to, much like Andrew Luck, but it’s obvious there won’t be a regular package of read-option plays for him at the next level. Edge to Mariota.

Durability goes to Winston, and a big reason why is his thicker frame to take punishing hits and the fact he stays in the pocket more. Mariota doesn’t necessarily need to stop running (it’s clearly a weapon to be used), but just needs to do a better job of taking less hits when possible, whether it’s sliding, throwing it away or getting out of bounds. Edge to Winston.

Then we come to intangibles, where there’s mixed results on one end. Winston has good leadership qualities, can lead the team on a game-winning drive when it matters most, plays in a pro-style system and has an elite football IQ. But he’s also been arrested multiple times and has been accused of rape (kind of a big deal). His intelligence on the field is impressive, but where’s that intelligence as he walks out of a grocery store with stolen crab legs? Obviously this is an area where scouts are going to spend the bulk of their time grading Winston.

Mariota on the other hand, offers no worries other than the fact he’ll have to get used to making proper progressions on reads and dropping back from under center. He’s a highly intelligent player on and off the field, is a good leader and carries himself like a consummate professional. You won’t have to worry about him making headlines for the wrong reason like you will Winston.

Overall, Winston has the slightly better physical skill set for the NFL, but comes with significant risk off the field. Mariota has a very good physical skill set and he’ll be a good pro, though he’ll need more developmental time. But he’ll make an excellent face of the franchise, so I’m giving him the slight edge. Again, it’s early though.

Rick Stavig is an NFL Draft Columnist for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @rickstavig or add him to your network on Google+.

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