Blueprint for New York Jets to Upset Denver Broncos

By Greg Sulik @GregSulik on October 10, 2014

You don’t need me to tell you that the Denver Broncos are a much better team than the New York Jets, and in all likelihood Peyton Manning and his cast of Pro Bowl receivers are going to blow Gang Green out of the water on Sunday. However, they play the games for a reason, and stranger things have happened before. A Jets upset win is extremely unlikely, but here’s how they could do it.

First we’ll start with obvious: the Jets have to play perfect football, with the Broncos playing their worst game in a long time. That will begin with pass rush for the Jets. The Jets are tied for the league lead in sacks, and Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson, Quinton Coples and the rest of the of the Jets’ front seven have to create pressure on Manning. The Broncos have allowed the second fewest sacks in the NFL this season, partly because Manning gets the ball out his hands so quickly.

That brings us to the next key point, which is that every defensive back the Jets have will have to be on top of their game. Look at the matchups: Dee Milliner vs Demaryius Thomas, Darrin Walls vs Emmanuel Sanders, Kyle Wilson vs Wes Welker, Antonio Allen vs Julius Thomas. There isn’t a single matchup there that you’re picking a Jets player to win.

However, the Jets have to find a way to slow the Broncos receivers long enough to allow the pass rush to get to Manning. The Jets could use more zone looks than normal to take away the big plays, and look for them to have safety help on both the Thomases, with Calvin Pryor as the key player.

The Jets also need to limit the quick hitters to Welker and Sanders, as those are the plays that prevent a pass rush from ever getting near Manning. Press coverage with a linebacker sliding out into the curl zone or a safety dropping down could help limit some of the underneath routes that Manning uses so successfully. Look for the Jets to use a lot of nickel or three safety packages, and Demario Davis and Dawan Landry will play key roles here.

Offensively, the Jets can’t turn the ball over, period, end of story. The Jets are going to have enough problems keeping up with the Broncos to begin with, and they cannot afford to waste possessions. Denver ranks 7th in the NFL in rush yards allowed per game, but the Jets don’t have a choice other than to try to run the ball and control the clock. Limiting Denver’s possessions is a huge key to the game. Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson must be effective on the ground and allow the Jets to sustain long drives.

When they do throw, Marty Mornhinweg needs to keep it simple and set Geno Smith up to succeed. Quick passes that get the ball to Eric Decker and Jeremy Kerley in space will be the best options. D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Breno Giacomini will have to turn in huge performances against Von Miller and Demarcus Ware, and Giacomini will probably need help from a tight end or running back. If they can keep Smith upright and give him time to make decisions, especially on third down, they will have a chance.

Finally, the Jets must execute in the red zone. The Broncos rank first in the NFL in red zone touchdown percentage, the Jets rank last. You don’t need to be a math genius to figure out that the Jets kicking field goals while the Broncos score touchdowns only ends one way. Mornhinweg needs to stick to the ground game in the red zone and let Ivory wear defenses down. When he does call passes, limit the gimmicks that have so often led to confusion and broken plays.

Obviously there are a lot of things that need to go right, and it shows the mountain the Jets have to climb here. If they can pressure Manning and prevent big plays on defense while controlling the clock and executing in the red zone on offense, they will have a fighting chance. The Jets are major underdogs and it will take a near perfect performance to win, but they have a shot to stun everyone and get their season turned around.

Greg Sulik is a New York Jets writer for Rant Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GregSulik or add him to your network on Google