Home-Field Advantage Not a Must For New England Patriots In Playoffs

By Justin Patrick @calling_allfans on November 11, 2014

With their Week 9 thumping of the Denver Broncos, the New England Patriots claimed control in the AFC and are currently the No. 1 seed. Both the Patriots and Broncos are 7-2, and now New England holds the all-important head-to-head tiebreaker. That puts them in the driver’s seat in the AFC. But for the sake of argument, let’s pretend Denver’s easier schedule (both team’s schedules are below) allows them to finish with a better record than the Patriots and Peyton Manning and company secure the No. 1 seed come playoff time. Let’s also assume that the AFC plays out as most football fans expect with New England vs. Denver.

New England (remaining opponent’s record this season: 36-28):

at Indianapolis Colts

vs. Detroit Lions

at Green Bay Packers

at San Diego Chargers

vs. Miami Dolphins

at New York Jets

vs. Buffalo Bills

Denver (remaining opponent’s record this season: 29-33-1)

at St. Louis Rams

vs. Dolphins

at Kansas City Chiefs

vs. Bills

at Chargers

at Cincinnati Bengals

vs. Oakland Raiders

If both of those scenarios play out, would it really matter that much if the Patriots end up playing in Denver when the AFC Championship game comes around in January?

Not really.

For starters, home-field advantage in the NFL just doesn’t mean what it used to. There are very few places that provide a true “home-field advantage” anymore. Of the 20 teams that reached the Super Bowl in the past decade, only 10 of them enjoyed home-field advantage throughout the entire playoffs (due to achieving the best regular season record or a No. 1 seed losing prior to the conference championship game). A success rate of 50 percent doesn’t exactly say that home-field advantage is necessary. Additionally, only three teams who had home-field advantage throughout the playoffs in the past 10 seasons have actually won the Super Bowl. Being the No. 1 seed come playoff time is great, but it is a far cry from meaning a team will definitely win, or even go to, the Super Bowl.

There is also a very good chance that Denver is cold in January, and Peyton’s record in sub-40 degree games is 8-12, while Tom Brady is extremely comfortable playing in cold weather. That’s not to say that the temperature will definitely be colder than 40 degrees or that if it is the Patriots will automatically win, but that’s certainly an advantage for the Patriots.

The Patriots lost to the Broncos in the AFC Championship game last season in Denver, but over the past five weeks this season’s Patriots team has proven they are different than last year’s squad. The offense struggled mightily in last season’s AFC Championship game, scoring only 16 points. Over the past five weeks the offense has come together. The coaching staff has found the configuration that works for the offensive line; other wide receivers, besides Julian Edelman, are becoming true targets for Brady; and TE Tim Wright is playing well and allowing offense coordinator Josh McDaniels to run two tight-end sets like he wants to do. TE Rob Gronkowski has stayed on the field thus far and he is playing like the Gronk of old. A healthy Gronk is the best tight end in the NFL, and he makes the Patriots’ offense exponentially more dynamic when he’s on the field. The Patriots’ secondary, led by offseason acquisitions CB Darrelle Revis and CB Brandon Browner, is also improved from last season.

Ultimately, the Patriots having home-field throughout the playoffs and hosting the Broncos at home would be nice and it’s what the Patriots and their fans want. But it’s not something that is needed as much as, say, a healthy Gronkowski throughout the playoffs for the first time.

Justin Patrick is a New England Patriots writer for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @calling_allfans, like him on Facebook and add him to your network on Google. You can also email him at [email protected]