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NFL Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs Can Still Win the AFC West

By @bradberreman24

Jamaal Charles, Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

After an 0-2 start, the Kansas City Chiefs won seven out of eight games (five in a row) to put themselves in a tie with the Denver Broncos for first place in the AFC West heading into Week 12. Even on a short week, Thursday night’s game on the road against the winless Oakland Raiders looked like a sure win, but the Chiefs could not hold up their end of the bargain in a 24-20 loss.

The Chiefs are now one behind the Broncos in the loss column, with a 7-4 record, but Kansas City can absolutely still win the division and set themselves up for at least one home game in the AFC playoffs.

The Broncos have lost two of their last three games, and they have a lengthy injury report heading into Sunday’s game against the Miami Dolphins.

Wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders (concussion), tight end Julius Thomas (ankle) and running back Montee Ball (groin) all notably left last Sunday’s loss to the St. Louis Rams, which was a big reason Denver scored just seven points in the game.  Sanders is expected to play on Sunday against the Dolphins, but Thomas is headed for a game-time decision and Ball will miss his sixth game of the season. Also notably on the Broncos’ Week 12 injury report, listed as probable, are offensive tackles Ryan Clady (groin) and Paul Cornick (shoulder), and of course running back Ronnie Hillman remains out with a foot injury.

Three of Kansas City’s final five games will be at home, including Week 13 against the Broncos and a Week 15 rematch with the Raiders, and they are 4-1 at Arrowhead Stadium so far this season. The two road games will be in Week 14 against an Arizona Cardinals team that is down to Drew Stanton at quarterback, and then Week 16 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have been inconsistent this season to say the least.

The Chiefs competed well with Denver back in Week 2, losing by just seven points on the road after only allowing three points in the second half of the game. They also outgained the Broncos in the game 380-325, with the only key skill player Denver was missing being wide receiver Wes Welker, who was serving the end of a suspension for performance-enhancing drugs and working his way back from a concussion. So Kansas City can clearly hold their own against the Broncos even when they are at full strength, and it’s possible they still won’t be when next Sunday night comes.

Broncos’ quarterback Peyton Manning has a poor record in cold weather games during his career, and that was on full display last February in Super Bowl XLVIII against the Seattle Seahawks. The forecast in Denver for Sunday’s game against the Dolphins looks fine, with a high of 40 degrees and no precipitation coming, but after that only one game on the Broncos’ schedule has little or no chance for bad weather (Week 15 against the San Diego Chargers on the road). That’s not to say Denver will lose out due to injuries and the potential for multiple cold weather games in December, but the opportunity to stay in the race for a division title clearly remains for the Chiefs if they can get back on track.

Kansas City has a solid defense, a prolific running game led by Jamaal Charles and a quarterback in Alex Smith who takes care of the ball well (just four interceptions this season). That is a formula for success late in the season, as the weather becomes a bigger factor, and frankly teams that combine those elements consistently win a lot of games regardless of the conditions.

Week 13′s matchup with the Broncos may wind up effectively being for the division title, since a season sweep by Denver would give them a clear leg up heading into the final month of the regular season. But if Kansas City can earn a split with a victory on national television, and stay tied with Denver through December, they have wins over the Seahawks and Rams that the Broncos don’t have. A third advantageous win over a common opponent would come if the Dolphins are able to beat the injury-plagued Broncos on Sunday, since the Chiefs beat Miami back in Week 3.

Four of the the Chiefs’ final five games are likely to have playoff implications for one or both teams, so a new five-game winning streak to wrap up the season looks fairly unlikely. But that also can’t be totally ruled out, particularly if they don’t have to do without any key players down the stretch.

I’m not yet comfortable going out on a limb to say the Chiefs will win the AFC West, since the Chargers are also in the mix as of now and it’s shaping up to be a close race right to Week 17.

Thursday night’s loss to the Raiders obviously does not have Kansas City’s arrow pointing up with Thanksgiving around the corner, and rightfully so. But everything is still in front of the Chiefs, as they control their own destiny in the AFC West race, and they can put themselves in the conversation for home field advantage throughout the playoffs by beating the Broncos in Week 13.

Brad Berreman is a Columnist at Rant Sports.com. Connect with him on Twitter or Google +.

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