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2015 NFL Draft: Evaluating Marcus Mariota’s Stock After Week 14

By @Spencer_NFL

Marcus Mariota Oregon

Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports

Jesus, girls and Marcus Mariota. That sums up the impact the Oregon QB has had on college football in the Pacific Northwest. The question now isn’t ‘will he stay or will he go?’ it’s ‘how high will he be drafted?’

Mariota wasn’t even the favorite to win the starting job when he arrived in Eugene. Many believed Bryan Bennett had the advantage heading into the 2012 season. As we now know, Chip Kelly went with Mariota, Bennett transferred to Southeastern Louisiana and the rest is history.

In three seasons, Mariota has taken the dynamic Oregon offense to a new level. His effectiveness through the air and on the ground is something the Ducks lacked with previous one-dimensional quarterbacks. He can’t be compared to former Oregon quarterbacks who have failed in the NFL because he’s much more of a complete player.

When it comes to running the football from the quarterback position, Mariota is in a league of his own. Oregon has plenty of designed runs for the junior signal-caller, but it’s what he does when the play breaks down that is so impressive. Mariota is very quick with his reads and is able to go through multiple progressions before taking off. This is one area in which many dual-threat quarterbacks, most notably Brett Hundley of UCLA, struggle. Mariota is not a run-first QB. The Oregon offense is designed to have at least one receiver running wide open, and more often than not, Mariota finds that receiver.

As a passer, Mariota has made great strides this season. In previous years, the velocity and accuracy on his deep ball was average at best. This season he has improved his strength and has more zip on the ball. His accuracy has improved as well — after his completion percentage dropped to 63.5 last season, he’s completed 68.6 percent of his passes this season.

With any player in the draft, evaluators need to point out weaknesses as well. The Oregon offensive line has been a revolving door due to injuries at almost every position this year. While the line can be blamed for many of the 29 times Mariota has been sacked, there have been instances in which he could have stepped up in the pocket to avoid the rush. With pass rush specialists on just about every team in the NFL, he’ll need to learn how to use his mobility in the pocket.

My biggest concern is his ability to throw the ball across his body to the left. Against three of the better defenses in the Pac-12 (UCLA, Stanford and Utah), Mariota was a combined 8-for-27 (29.6 percent) on passes thrown beyond the line of scrimmage to his left. In the loss to Arizona, he was 1-for-4 throwing the ball downfield to the left. With much smaller windows to throw to in the NFL, he can’t afford to have half the field taken away due to accuracy issues.

As far as his leadership ability goes, there’s no way of knowing. He shouldn’t be criticized for being calm and quiet on the sidelines when his team is winning every game by 30 or 40 points. I understand Tom Brady and Peyton Manning getting fired up and trying to motivate their teammates, but they aren’t winning 52-6 at the time. Until his team is challenged week in and week out, Mariota’s leadership cannot be questioned.

With many of the teams expected to be near the top of the 2015 draft having drafted a QB in 2014, projecting where Mariota lands is tricky. The Oakland Raiders, Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars hold three of the first four picks after Week 13, but all of them have a rookie currently starting at QB. It’s extremely doubtful the Jaguars would give up on Blake Bortles, but it’s possible the Raiders or Titans would decide Mariota is too good to pass up. If both pass on Mariota, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New York Jets would be next in line. I can’t foresee a scenario in which either team wouldn’t take Mariota.

The bottom line is Mariota will be the first QB drafted and will be a top-five pick. He’s the No. 2 player on my board behind USC defensive lineman Leonard Williams.

Shawn Spencer is an NFL Draft writer for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @Spencer_NFL, “Like” him on Facebook or add him to your network on Google.

Related: 2015 NFL Draft: 5 Prospects Who Raised Their Stock Week 14

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