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Chicago Bears Face Tough Choice With Matt Forte This Offseason

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Matt Forte Chicago Bears Contract Extension

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Matt Forte has been the Chicago Bears’ best player this season — it’s not even close. He has consistently performed on the Bears’ underachieving offense. He has done his part to try and keep the struggling defense off the field and is largely to thank for Chicago’s 5-7 record being what it is, rather than much, much worse.

The issue with Forte is that he will be 29 years of age on Dec. 10. More importantly, Forte has one year remaining on his current contract. If the Bears are serious about keeping Forte on the roster, they need to sign him to a contract extension this offseason.

On the surface, it seems like a no-brainer. Forte has been great and has shown no signs of slowing down, but there is plenty of statistical data that shows that running backs start declining rapidly at 30 years of age, the exact age Forte will be when his current contract expires.

The 30-year-old wall is not a myth. Look at the legendary players who couldn’t overcome it: Marshall Faulk, Eric Dickerson, OJ Simpson, Earl Campbell, just to name a few. The initial argument is that Forte is a different type of player who doesn’t take the same punishment as many of the running backs listed, but Roger Craig was a very similar back to Forte and he also fell victim to the 30-year old wall.

It’s not to say it’s a guarantee. Walter Payton, Emmitt Smith and Curtis Martin are a few names that were still productive into their 30s, but it’s not that it’s impossible — it’s that it’s improbable.

If the Bears want to keep Forte on the roster, the last thing they want to do is let him test free agency after the 2015 season, which means signing him this offseason should be a priority. But that leaves GM Phil Emery with a difficult decision: Give Forte the contract he has earned, or let him walk and roll the dice that he only has a couple seasons left on his legs.

If the Bears are going to sign Forte, they are going to have to sign him for a good three to four years beyond 2015 with a sizable amount of guaranteed money. This means Emery needs to make the choice to commit millions of guaranteed dollars to a running back in his mid-30s by the end of the contract.

It’s possible that Forte will be pleased with just a two-year contract extension and that he will give the Bears a hometown discount, but this will be Forte’s last chance for a sizable contract. A running back with Forte’s skill set will be a hot commodity on the open market due to his value in the passing game.

No one can fault Forte if he wants a large contract extension; he has clearly earned it with his performance, but the Bears need to think long and hard if they are willing to give a 30-year-old running back a multiyear contract extension.

It’s a difficult position for Emery. Letting Forte walk will infuriate an already volatile fanbase, but giving Forte a long contract extension with guaranteed money could handcuff the franchise for years if he hits the 30-year-old wall. Emery has also proven that he has no issues letting popular players leave, as he refused to offer contract extensions to both Brian Urlacher and Devin Hester.

Emery has three choices: Give Forte the contract he’s earned and pay him into his mid-30s, wait until after 2015 and see if Forte has another tremendous season and risk losing him to another team or just let him go via free agency altogether. All three choices carry tremendous risks, and it will be fascinating to see what Emery decides to do.

Bill Zimmerman is a Chicago Bears writer for www.RantSports.Com. Follow him on Twitter, like him on Facebook, or add him to your network on Google.

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