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NFL Dallas Cowboys

NFL Playoff Picture Week 14: Dallas Cowboys’ Scenarios

By @GregSulik

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The Dallas Cowboys started off the year 6-1, but they have lost three of their last five games and find themselves in the thick of the NFC Wild Card race with an 8-4 record. Currently, the Cowboys are sitting in 7th overall in the NFC, behind both the Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions based on conference win percentage. The Cowboys are also a game back of the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East after their Thanksgiving Day loss.

We’ll start by evaluating the Cowboys’ chances of winning the division, which are pretty simple. The Cowboys must beat the Eagles in Philly in Week 15, or they won’t win the NFC East. If the Cowboys were to win that game, it would create a very close race to the finish. Both teams have fairly difficult schedules to close the season, but Philadelphia has a better record in the division. The Cowboys will most likely need to finish 11-5 or better to win the division, putting a lot of pressure on them in final quarter of the season.

Interestingly enough, however, the Cowboys are 3-4 at home and 5-0 on the road this year, so getting a Wild Card spot and a road playoff game might not be particularly intimidating for them. Of course, it must be said that the Cowboys haven’t played any good teams on the road this year expect the Seahawks. Again, the Week 15 game at the Eagles will tell us a lot about this team.

As far as the Wild Card situation goes, the Cowboys have a head to head win over the Seahawks and losses to the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals, the latter of whom is not looking very strong atop the NFC West. However, each of those teams plays the other two before the season ends, meaning that at least one of the NFC West teams is likely to be taken out of the Wild Card conversation by its division rivals. The Seahawks also play the Eagles this week, which means the Cowboys will get help from that game in one of their two playoff races.

The other Wild Card challenger is the Detroit Lions, who have by far the easiest schedule of any of the teams in the race. It is likely, even probable, that the Lions will finish 11-5 and earn one of the Wild Card spots.

That leaves the Cowboys in a competition with the NFC West teams, and they will have to go at least 10-6 to win that race. Wins against the Chicago Bears and Washington Redskins will be crucial to that cause, as they will get Dallas to double digit wins and improve their conference win percentage.

At this juncture, winning the division seems like an uphill battle for Dallas, who looked very poor at home against the Eagles. That’s not to say they can’t do it, but a Wild Card berth certainly seems more likely. The Cowboys don’t have total control of their own destiny, but the schedules of the NFC West contenders will open up an opportunity.

Beating the Eagles and challenging for the division crown is the ideal scenario, but with even just two wins in their last four games, the Cowboys are going to be very real contenders for a Wild Card spot. The key is the third win, and if Dallas can get to 11-5 they should be safely into the postseason.

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