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After a two game losing streak raised some huge concerns about the Arizona Cardinals‘ playoff chances without Carson Palmer, Bruce Arians’ team rebounded and delivered a much needed home win against the Kansas City Chiefs. The victory took the Cardinals to 10-3 and held their current position as the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
That position, however, is very precarious. The Cardinals have a tough slate of divisional games coming up, playing at the St. Louis Rams, home against the Seattle Seahawks, and at the San Francisco 49ers over the final three weeks. The Cardinals are in good shape for a playoff spot, but they are hardly guaranteed a division title or a bye.
We’ll start with the division, where the Cardinals have a one game lead on the Seahawks. If Arizona wins at home against Seattle in Week 16, they shouldn’t have much trouble winning the division. If they win out and finish 13-3, they will be the No. 1 seed in the NFC. If the Cards go 12-4 with a win over Seattle, they would still earn at least the No. 2 seed. If the Cardinals and Seahawks both finish with the same record, however, the Seahawks would win the NFC West.
If the Cardinals were to go 12-4 with the one loss coming to Seattle, they would end up as the No. 5 seed and travel to face the NFC South winner. An 11-5 Arizona team with a loss to the Seahawks would still make the playoffs over the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys if they had the same record, which is a reasonable scenario.
Things get really dangerous if the Cardinals were to lose out, but they could conceivably get in at 10-6. It would take at least one of the Lions and Cowboys dropping to 10-6 as well, but that’s not entirely unrealistic. Although it’s hard to imagine a 10-3 team imploding that badly, the Cardinals’ difficult schedule makes it possible, starting this week at the Rams.
The Rams are better than their 6-7 record and have played a lot of good teams tough this season, with wins over both of last season’s Super Bowl participants and single digit losses to three other playoff contenders. They have also won their last two games by a combined score of 76-0, albeit against inferior opposition. Little needs to be said about the dangers of the Seahawks, who look like one of the best teams in the NFL again. Finally, the Niners have underachieved this season but given the talent on their roster they should not be taken lightly.
Realistically, just one win in their final three games would probably be enough to get the Cardinals into the playoffs, and they are certainly good enough to get at least that. If they want more, however, a win against the Seahawks in Week 16 is essential. That game will determine the NFC West champion, and the Cardinals need a victory to have any shot at a bye.
It won’t be easy, but the Cardinals’ path to the No. 1 overall seed is clear. The question is whether or not this team has enough left in the tank to claim it.
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