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As the evaluation process for the 2015 NFL Draft starts to heat up, no prospect is more polarizing than Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston. He is going to be heavily scrutinized throughout the offseason, and there is going to be plenty of debate about where he should be drafted. There is a lot that can be said about Winston, so let’s try to break down the two main narratives regarding the redshirt sophomore.
First we have Winston the football player, who is 26-0 as starting quarterback for the Seminoles, has won back to back ACC Championships, and will be competing for his second straight national championship. Winston won the Heisman Trophy last season, in addition to being a first team All-America and taking home the Walter Camp and Davey O’Brien awards.
Winston’s passing numbers were much better as a freshman than as a sophomore, but for his career he has completed 66.1% of his passes for 7,616 yards, 64 touchdowns, and 27 interceptions. Winston’s completion percentage hasn’t changed much, but he has thrown seven more interceptions this season. That points to a player who pressing too much as he tries to make up for a team that isn’t as good as the one he was on last season.
Winston has prototypical size at 6’4″, 230 lbs, and he has good functional mobility in the mold of players like Andrew Luck and Ben Roethlisberger. More importantly, Winston has an absolute cannon and has the ability to make all the throws at the NFL level. He still needs work on his mechanics and accuracy, but that’s not unusual for a 20-year old. Winston is generally a good on field decision maker, but he definitely has a tendency to force some balls. For those who believe in it, Winston also has the clutch factor, as he raises his game and rallies his teammates in the fourth quarter and has led his share of game winning drives in college.
The second narrative of Winston, of course, is the off the field issues. The small things are the BB gun incident, shoplifting the crab legs, and getting suspended for yelling obscenities in Florida State’s student union building. Those are all indicative of immaturity and poor decision making, but in and of themselves they aren’t enough to really scare off NFL teams.
What is enough, however, is the sexual assault allegation. Although Winston has not been charged with or convicted of anything, putting himself in that situation raises plenty of questions about his character. Given that sexual and domestic abuse are hot button issues in the NFL at the moment, this is going to hurt his stock, and there are going to be teams that take him off their draft board simply because they don’t want to deal with the headache.
There is so much hate directed at Winston that people forget how good he actually is. Winston has his flaws as a quarterback, but he is a first round talent and anyone who tells you otherwise is blinded by the other issues. Winston is the clear No. 2 quarterback in this draft class, something that would normally ensure him top-10 status given the needs of teams at the top of the draft.
However, how much the off the field issues hurt his stock remains to be seen. Right now, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who I think would be the most likely to take Winston, don’t have to deal with it because they can just draft Marcus Mariota. I think Winston would be a massive risk for the New York Jets because of the New York media, while the Tennessee Titans may not feel strongly enough about him to take the chance. Maybe teams like the St. Louis Rams, Houston Texans, or Buffalo Bills would feel the reward outweighs the risk in the middle of the first round if Winston slides.
Overall, Winston’s stock comes down to how any one team feels about him. He deserves to be a top-10 pick based on his football resume and potential, and there is going to be a team that believes his talent outweighs his risk. The question is what team and when that comes, but it will almost certainly be in the first half of the first round.
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