Aaron Rodgers’ Injury Will Determine Outcome of Packers vs Cowboys

By Sean Jensen @seankjensen on January 9, 2015

Look past the glow of Green Bay, the charm of Lambeau Field, the Packers‘ undefeated home record.

All eyes Sunday will be on Aaron Rodgers’ left calf.

According to , the calf muscle has a “slight tear,” in addition to being “significantly strained.” Rodgers didn’t practice Wednesday, but he did on Thursday with coach Mike McCarthy proclaiming that he’s “progressing forward.”

How Rodgers endures that injury, though, will most significantly determine whether the Packers beat the Dallas Cowboys Sunday afternoon.

Forget about all the fancy statistics about his prowess over the last month, months or even years. Rodgers will not be 100 percent Sunday, and he’ll need to grit it out for at least three games if he’s going to lead the Packers to another Lombardi Trophy.

Officially, Rodgers is listed as “probable,” which means he’ll definitely play.

But how healthy will he be?

“He looks like he’s moving fine to me right now,” McCarthy said, according to the , “so we’re not going to change any approach for how we want to attack the Dallas defense.”

That very well could be coach-speak, an attempt to throw the Cowboys off.

If Rodgers didn’t practice at all this week, the Cowboys would likely prepare as if the MVP-caliber quarterback’s mobility – one of the strengths of his game – was going to be severely limited. That would change their defensive game plan.

In addition to his accuracy, arm strength and high football IQ, Rodgers is mobile enough to buy more time and arguably the best on-the-run passer in the game. No, he’s not Cam Newton fast, or Russell Wilson quick, but Rodgers is quick and slippery enough that he can’t be ignored.

But, in all likelihood, the Packers will tweak their game plan to help protect Rodgers, perhaps by calling more runs, perhaps by calling for more shotgun formations.

This is where McCarthy’s creativity will be key.

And the Packers’ defense is going to have to keep the Cowboys’ offense in check.

In general, Cowboys defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli runs a Cover-Two based scheme, which doesn’t include much blitzing. But flushing Rodgers out of the pocket and pressuring him may be the Cowboys’ best bet to keep the quarterback in check. Because the reality is, the Cowboys’ secondary isn’t a strength and – if Rodgers were 100 percent – he’d have a field day picking them apart with his talented receiving corps.

And let’s not forget one other key detail: The Cowboys probably aren’t intimidated by the Lambeau Field mystique.

This season, the Cowboys were undefeated on the road, beating, among other teams, the New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles and Seattle Seahawks. The Packers were undefeated at home.

Something must give.

And the outcome will depend, in some way, on how Rodgers’ left calf holds up.