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The Predictalator has already played the 2016 NFL season 50,000 times before it’s actually played. The Seattle Seahawks lead the way as the most likely Super Bowl Champions, winning it all a league-high 11.7% of the time (last season’s top champion at this time of year won the Super Bowl 17.1% of the time).
The most likely Super Bowl is a rematch of Super Bowl XL as the Seahawks defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers 55.5% of the time and by an average score of 27-24. This Super Bowl, however, is just 2.9% likely. Another NFC team, the Green Bay Packers, is actually the second most likely team to win the Super Bowl at 9.7% (yes, just one team wins it more than 10%).The Arizona Cardinals, who actually rank as the best team in the NFL right now, have a tougher schedule and more age/injury/inconsistency concerns than Seattle. Having to play as a Wild Card, pushes the Cardinals down to the third most likely Super Bowl Champion (8.9%). The AFC’s best overall team when not dealing with health or suspension issues, the New England Patriots trail the Steelers in Super Bowl likelihood. Tom Brady’s suspension opens up a window for Pittsburgh to earn the conference’s top seed.
Add in the Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos and Cincinnati Bengals and a total of eight teams have at least a five percent chance to win it all this year (double last season, when the Broncos were among just four teams at greater than five percent). There are 15 other teams that win the championship between 1% and 5% of the time, including 11 teams that did not even make the playoffs last year (in descending likelihood of order): New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys, Oakland Raiders, Indianapolis Colts, Buffalo Bills, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, San Diego Chargers, New York Jets, Chicago Bears, Jacksonville Jaguars and Baltimore Ravens.
Heading into the season, the Seahawks (75%), Packers (73%), Patriots (73%), Steelers (66%), Cardinals (61%), Panthers (60%) Bengals (57%), Giants (52%) and Broncos (51%) are the nine teams at least 50% likely to make the playoffs. For a league that seemingly represents parity, those nine teams account for 14 of the last twenty champions and 26 of the 40 participants in the last twenty Super Bowls. (Plus, the Bengals have not played in a Super Bowl in that stretch, but they have made the playoffs five straight seasons.)
Below, we explain How This Works and break down every team division-by-division. In each team’s preview, the “Most Valuable” players for each team are those whose play is most critical to the team’s success. Typically, they will be young, injury-prone and/or inconsistent players who could just as likely play well and help the team as play poorly or miss games to hurt the team. Also, the Offensive and Defensive Rankings are based on how many points a team would score (offense) or allow (defense) if each team played the same, league-average schedule (rankings are based on current, Week 1 rosters, so New England is without Tom Brady for example).
Playable against-the-spread picks in the NFL last regular season went 110-85 (56% ATS), the fourth time in the last six seasons that the Predictalator picked every NFL game at a greater than 56% rate against-the-spread. Also, NFL Playoff picks are 44-20 (69% ATS) all-time on the site.
In College Football, totals and the Lock of the Week have been consistently strong. Highlighted, “normal” or better (greater than 57% confidence to cover) over/under plays in college are 58% all-time and have been profitable in four of the previous six years. Meanwhile, Locks of the Week, the strongest against-the-spread pick each week in college football are 61-34 (65% ATS) all-time.
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See: How This Works, Season Summary and Division Previews: AFC East, AFC North, AFC West, AFC South, NFC East, NFC North, NFC West and NFC South
How This Works
Just as the Predictalator plays each individual NFL game 50,000 times before it’s actually played, it can also play the entire NFL season 50,000 times before it’s actually played. Using the actual schedule for 2016 through the playoffs, the Predictalator is able to compute average records and likelihoods of each team making the playoffs, winning its division and bringing home the Super Bowl trophy.
The Predictalator’s technology is built to handle such a demanding task. Making sure that we have the best possible inputs for players’ statistics, progression over time and age, roles, health and playing time as well as teams’ coaching styles and weather are keys to the accuracy of the output.
In general, we apply strength-of-schedule-adjusted, relevant statistics from every player’s career (weighted more heavily on the most recent 16 games) to a fairly traditional player development curve that considers age and previous playing time. Not only does this development curve help to set average inputs, it combines with health history to dictate the variance (“boom or bust” potential) of a player’s inputs.
Playing time estimation is more of an art than a science for all players who are expected to see significant starting time in 2016. That being said, gaps have been filled in by our best approximations of average bench and role players on teams.
Once that math and statistical analysis is evaluated, importing a schedule and running the games 50,000 times each is simple. See every projected score from every 2016 game here.
See: How This Works, Season Summary and Division Previews: AFC East, AFC North, AFC West, AFC South, NFC East, NFC North, NFC West and NFC South
Season Summary
Based on the analysis, here is the projected NFL 2016 Playoff bracket. It should be noted however, that this exact bracket only occurred in 94 of the 50,000 seasons played by the Predictalator:
AFC
Wild Card Round
#6 Kansas City 17 @ #3 Denver 20
#5 Cincinnati 28 @ #4 Indianapolis 27
Divisional Round
#3 Denver 20 @ #2 New England 23
#5 Cincinnati 25 @ #1 Pittsburgh 28
AFC Championship
#2 New England 24 @ #1 Pittsburgh 27
NFC
Wild Card Round
#6 Minnesota 23 @ #3 New York Giants 25
#5 Arizona 24 @ #4 Carolina 23
Divisional Round
#4 Arizona 23 @ #1 Seattle 25
#3 New York Giants 25 @ #2 Green Bay 31
NFC Championship
#2 Green Bay 24 @ #1 Seattle 27
Super Bowl
Seattle 27 over Pittsburgh 24
Other Info:
Teams that should surprise (good): New York Giants, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Chicago Bears, San Diego Chargers
Teams that should surprise (bad): Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Detroit Lions
Most Important Player (AFC): Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts
Most Important Player (NFC): Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
Most Important Rookie (AFC): Dante Fowler, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars (a rookie in that he has never played in NFL)
Most Important Rookie (NFC): Jared Goff, QB, St. Louis Rams
See: How This Works, Season Summary and Division Previews: AFC East, AFC North, AFC West, AFC South, NFC East, NFC North, NFC West and NFC South
See: How This Works, Season Summary and Division Previews: AFC East, AFC North, AFC West, AFC South, NFC East, NFC North, NFC West and NFC South
See: How This Works, Season Summary and Division Previews: AFC East, AFC North, AFC West, AFC South, NFC East, NFC North, NFC West and NFC South
See: How This Works, Season Summary and Division Previews: AFC East, AFC North, AFC West, AFC South, NFC East, NFC North, NFC West and NFC South
See: How This Works, Season Summary and Division Previews: AFC East, AFC North, AFC West, AFC South, NFC East, NFC North, NFC West and NFC South
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See: How This Works, Season Summary and Division Previews: AFC East, AFC North, AFC West, AFC South, NFC East, NFC North, NFC West and NFC South
See: How This Works, Season Summary and Division Previews: AFC East, AFC North, AFC West, AFC South, NFC East, NFC North, NFC West and NFC South
See: How This Works, Season Summary and Division Previews: AFC East, AFC North, AFC West, AFC South, NFC East, NFC North, NFC West and NFC South
NFC West Preview
See: How This Works, Season Summary and Division Previews: AFC East, AFC North, AFC West, AFC South, NFC East, NFC North, NFC West and NFC South
NFL Preview Pages:
Over/Under Win Total Picks
Futures Picks
Projected Scores (All 256 Regular Season Games)
In-Depth Team Analysis
NFL Team Rankings
Fantasy Football Projections and Rankings
PredictionMachine.com is the leader in sports simulation. Its advanced statistical technology, the “Predictalator,” plays every game 50,000 times before it’s actually played to provide comprehensive and industry-leading player, team and game projections.
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