Domonic Brown, Vance Worley: Who to Keep, Who to Trade?
Each of these two players on the Philadelphia Phillies has been heavily linked in trade rumors, but the Phillies likely won’t trade away both of them. Who should the team keep and who should be traded?
On the one hand, you have a 23-year old corner outfielder who was regarded as the fourth-overall prospect in all of the major leagues prior to this season, a five-tool player with unlimited potential. On the other hand, you have a 23-year old starting pitcher who seemingly came out of nowhere to post a lower ERA (2.00) so far this season than Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, or Cole Hamels.
Brown has had an up-and-down season, and he currently sits at .251/.343/.406 with five home runs and 18 RBIs in 175 at-bats. He’s been incredibly streaky, hitting .333 in May, .165 in June, and now .317 in July. He’s a little shaky defensively. And he also needs to learn how to hit left-handed pitching much better, as evidenced by his career .749 OPS against righties and just .558 mark against lefties.
Then again, he has loads of potential. He tore up the minor leagues, even hitting .341 this year in Triple-A after rehabbing from a hand injury that derailed the start of his season. He has the talent to post 30-30 (HR-SB) numbers for the Phillies in the future, and he should be a force for this team for the next decade or more.
Worley was never ranked in the top 100 prospects in the game, and even before this season, Sporting News ranked him as just the eighth best prospect within the Phillies organization. He wasn’t even that great in the minor leagues – going just 1-3 with a 3.77 ERA in Triple-A last season. He can just flat out pitch though.
He doesn’t have overwhelming stuff but he’s aggressive in his style of pitching and he’s under the tutelage of four of the game’s greatest pitchers. Worley gave up one or fewer run in six straight starts and when that streak finally ended, it was because he threw a complete game three-hitter and gave up two runs.
Many fans and scouts have labeled Worley as nothing more than a number three starter for another major league team, and the numbers seem to support that case. Worley’s ERA is 2.00, but his FIP (a number that shows what his ERA should be given his other numbers like walk rate and strikeout rate) is 3.09, and his xFIP (a number that assumes he gives up home runs at the average rate of 10 percent of fly balls rather than the ridiculously unmaintable rate of 2.7 percent he is currently at) is 3.97.
Worley’s strikeout rate of 6.68 this season is nothing to brag about, and his walk rate of 3.34 batters per nine innings certainly needs to be improved upon. Worley has a home run rate of 2.7 percent. To put that in comparison, none of the 368 starting pitchers to have made at least 10 starts since 2005 has a home run rate of less than 5.0 percent. Worley has been holding hitters to a .233 batting average on balls in play. Only one pitcher (Jeremy Hellickson, .220) has achieved that feat. Basically, Worley will not be able to maintain his current unhittable rate.
Worley has shockingly comparable statistics to Zach Duke’s rookie campaign of 2005, and Duke has been all downhill since. Duke was 8-2, 1.81 as a rookie in ’05 and has been 39-72 with a 4.83 ERA since then. Duke – like Worley – had a ridiculously fortunate home run rate, low strikeout rates, and a hit rate way better than any other season of his career. Duke made 14 starts. Worley will end up making around 20.
Right now, Worley’s trade value has never been higher. It’s time for the Phillies to act on that. Trade him. J.A. Happ was a phenomenal rookie who hasn’t done anything since. Same with Kyle Kendrick to a lesser scale as a rookie. I don’t think Worley will ever win 100 games in his career. I think he’ll struggle to win 50. He’s not going to be the next Cole Hamels. I would love to be wrong, and I would love for Worley to be a force for the Phillies for years and years in the future, but I really don’t see that happening.
As far as Brown, I would hold onto him and not let go. I am certainly not impressed with him so far. He’s made his fair share of rookie mistakes and I thought he would develop a little quicker than he has. He also will give the Phillies a boatload of left-handed bats in the future – Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Brown – but I think Brown will develop into a dynamite player. Jason Heyward has struggled mightily over in Atlanta, and he’s got all the potential in the world too. Chase Utley hit just .257 in his first 87 major-league games (the same amount Brown has played). Mike Schmidt was at just .213 with a .376 slugging percentage. Pat Burrell, the former No. 1 overall draft pick in the game, batted only .245.
I think Brown will bat .300 for the Phillies. He has 30-home run potential. He can run fast. He’s going to make many All-Star teams, and the Phillies need to sit tight for a little during his current struggles, but whatever happens, keep him and trade Worley.
Buy Philadelphia Phillies Tickets | Buy Philadelphia Phillies Apparel
Leave a Rant
and oh, if you want a pic to show with your comment, go get a gravatar!
FEATURED PARTNERS
- 25 Rare And Beautiful Photos Of Marilyn Monroe
- Endangered African Cat Born to Housecat Surrogate
- 52 Things The New iPad Still Doesn't Have
- L.A. Lakers Sued Over Song -- Da Da Dad Danta Da -- CHARGE!!!
- Rampage Jackson Grants Fan Request -- Yes, I'll SLAP You In the FACE!
- Skateboarder Ryan Sheckler Victim of Vegas Jewelry Heist
- Mega Gallery: Lindsay Ellingson, Lily Alderidge, Candice Swanepoel, Behati Prinsloo, & Doutzen Kroes
- Guess What?!: There’s Video of ‘Kony 2012’ Founder Jason Russell’s Drunken Naked Antics
- Let’s Watch ‘Cruz On Tour: Episode 1’