Vance Worley: How Does the Philadelphia Phillies Pitcher Fit Into the Team’s Plans for the Future?
Much like Kyle Kendrick in 2007, Vance Worley was a pleasant surprise to the Philadelphia Phillies pitching staff. Worley began the year in Triple-A and wasn’t expected to make much of an impact, if any, on the big league squad. He was called up when Joe Blanton went on the DL and Worley proved too valuable to be held in the minors.
Worley ended the season 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA, finishing behind Craig Kimbrel and Freddie Freeman in the NL Rookie of the Year award voting. He struck out 119 batters in 131.2 innings pitched, kept his home run rate down, and at one point, the Phillies won 14 straight of Worley’s starts.
Worley is slotted to go into the season as a regular member of a pitching staff that includes All-Stars Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels, plus veteran Joe Blanton. Kendrick has also been re-signed to a two-year, $7.5 million deal, but he will begin the season in long relief and he won’t take Worley’s spot in the rotation unless Worley struggles immensely.
Worley likely won’t recapture the success he had in 2011, simply because of how good his numbers were. His FIP last year was 3.32 and his xFIP was 3.66. What do those statistics mean? Well, they take into account Worley’s peripheral numbers (strikeout rate, walk rate, batting average on balls in play, etc) and suggest what his ERA should have been. Posting a better ERA than he should have was a tribute to Worley’s ability to escape jams, and opponents batted just .175 against him with runners in scoring position, .000 with the bases loaded (0-for-5), and .160 in high leverage (pressure) situations. Those are numbers that Worley would be hard-pressed to maintain.
I see Worley coming back to earth in a big way in 2012. Bill James projects an 8-8 record to go with a 3.86 ERA. I see an ERA in the 4.00s and I see Worley missing time due to injury. It’s way too soon to tell if he will be the next Kyle Kendrick or if he will be the next Felix Hernandez. Hernandez seems like a steep comparison, and at this point, if Worley turns into Kendrick, it’s not too bad considering Kendrick has put together a serviceable career as a spot starter and long reliever that capitalizes on pitching to contact, inducing ground balls, and keeping his walks down.
The Phillies have been trying to get younger for quite some time, and two of their three aces (Halladay and Lee) are well into their thirties. Hamels is just 28 years old, but he’s also a free agent at the end of 2012 and may not be back with the team. Blanton has been trade bait all winter, and he may begin the season on another club. If Worley can turn into a quality middle of the rotation starter that eats up innings and gives the club 12 wins and an ERA around 3.75, the Phillies will gladly take it.
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[...] Worley was a pleasant surprise in 2011, and he earned a rotation spot this year. So far, he has made the Phillies’ decision [...]
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