2010 Draft: Should the 49ers Pass on Spiller and Wait for the Best?
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The 49er Faithful are screaming for the 49ers to pick up CJ Spiller with the 13th pick in this years draft. It makes sense. The 49ers are a few pieces away from being a serious threat to the NFC title. Spiller could take the spot of three of the pieces. He is a change of pace, home-run threat on offense, and a dangerous kick and punt returner. These are all things the 49ers could use.
There is another guy out there who may be a better fit for the 49ers, Jahvid Best. Why don’t the Faithful want this guy? Jahvid Best is a homegrown product with a tremendous amount of potential. Best has spent the last three years at Cal where he had a good career. He’s a home-run hitter just like Spiller. This week at the Combine we may even find out that he’s a bit faster than Spiller. Best can catch the ball out of the backfield, and with some good coaching could be a great kick/punt returner.
Here are the stats:
Spiller- 216 rushing attempts with 1212 yards and 12 TDs. He also had 5 TDs on returns.
Best- 141 rushing attempts with 867 yards and 12 TDs. He doesn’t have a return TD.
On offense these guys are about the same. There are some differences though. Best is a bigger home run threat. In 2008 he had an 8.1 yards per carry average on 194 carriers. But Spiller is more consistent. The difference is that Spiller has more experience returning kicks, but Best is more athletic and in the long run could end up being a better return man.
The only chance that the 49ers have to pick up Spiller is with their 13th pick. But Best could potentially still be around when the 49ers select their 49th pick. With all that Best has to offer, why not wait for him at the 49th pick, and see who else we could pick up at the 13th?
Nobody knows better than the 49ers about players falling in the draft; i.e. Michael Crabtree. There are some amazing players in this year’s draft that could fall to the 49ers at 13. I was watching T.V and a respected reporter said that they think Eric Berry could fall to 13. What about Joe Haden? He could fall. Dez Bryant is definitely someone the 49ers should take a look at if he were to fall to us. All of these guys have the potential to put their side of the ball over the top. If the 49ers can get one of these guys, they need to take ‘em.
The 49ers shouldn’t take Spiller so early. If he falls to them at 17, then maybe. Why pick up a guy with the 13th pick who is primarily a special teamer when there is another guy that we could get later who can do the same things?
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Why Spiller instead of Best? How about:
1. He’s a more complete player … has more skills.
2. He’s a much better receiver.
3. He can contribute more on special teams.
4. He is far less fragile.
Don’t believe it? Check it out:
Career Rushing Yards: Best 2,668 Spiller 3,480
Career Receiving Yards: Best 533 Spiller 1,362
Career KR / PR Yards: Best 844 Spiller 2,574
Career Total Yardage Best 4,045 Spiller 7,416
Career Yards Per Carry: Best 7.3 Spiller 5.9
Career Yards Per Catch: Best 8.6 Spiller 11.4
Career Ave. Kick Return: Best 26.4 Spiller 27.9
Career Ave. Punt Return: Best — Spiller 10.7
By the way, what does where the guy matriculated have to do with anything?
I agree that Spiller would make more of an impact right away. But is his impact worth the 13th pick in this years draft? If any of the guys I talked about in my post are available then they are the better pick. I just don’t see how a team like the 49ers could spend the 13th pick on a guy who is primarily a kick returner.
I don’t understand your thinking that he would be “primarily a kick returner.” I don’t think that that is his most important potential value. To me, what your getting, in order of importance:
1. COP RB — giving the Niners some potential to get around the corner on running plays; both Gore and Coffee are primarily between-the-tackles runners; we have little ability now to get outside. (Why else would we be using a TE, Walker, on sweeps?)
2. Slot WR — Spiller has above-average receiving skills; beyond that, he can go all the way on any given play; for now, the only guy we have that can do that is VD, and that usually requires a coverage mismatch. Spiller has the speed to beat any CB or S.
3. KR.
4. PR.
Most importantly we really don’t have any home run threats, except VD on occasion. One of the most unbelievable stats for Spiller is that 21 of his more that 50 college career TDs were for more than 50 yards! In any league, that’s amazing!
For a team who needs help on offense more than anything else (except KR / PR), who else are you going to draft at #13 that can deliver that kind of productivity? The ONLY draftee that I would even consider in preference to Spiller would be Berry — but it’s highly unlikely that he will be available.
Frank Gore can not succeed while sharing carries. Frank’s the type of back that nickels and dimes a defense then will break a big one. Franks has big games when he gets the ball 25 times a game.
That leaves 3-5 carries for Spiller. Maybe three snaps with both of them in the game, and 4 kick returns.
15 or so snaps per game is what we get with Spiller. I don’t think that is worth the 13th pick in this years draft. If he’s BPA then we should take him, but Haden, Bryant, or Berry could be around. They would be the better pick.
The 49ers don’t need a RB at 13, they need to improve their OL, which sucked last year. If the line gets better, Gore gets better. OL first, WR#3 second, RB third, and that’s assuming you want to give Alex Smith another year to prove himself.