Tampa Bay Rays Season Preview Part 3: James Shields
Spring training is right around the corner, so it’s as good a time as any to take a look at the 2012 Tampa Bay Rays. This is a talented team from top to bottom, and has as good a chance as any of making the playoffs. Each part in the series will focus on a key player – what they’ve done so far, and what they’re capable of doing in the future.
Coming off a down year in 2010, nobody knew what to expect from James Shields. In the past he’d proven to be a dependable arm in the rotation capable of going deep into games, but he struggled throughout the season. Most of James’ problems in 2010 were due to allowing too many hits and home runs, and it led to his embarrassing 5.18 ERA.
Well, in 2011 Shields was able to correct those problems, and the results were nothing short of incredible. Shields went 16-12 with a 2.82 ERA (3.42 FIP), striking out just over 8 batters an inning while earning 4.9 WAR. Even more impressive is that he did that while pitching a career high 249 1/3 innings during the regular season. It was a career year for the right hander, and heading into 2012 he’ll be expected to lead the young rotation along with lefty David Price.
Shields was a 16th round pick back in 2000, another key player who the Tampa Bay Rays drafted in the later rounds. He was initially successful in A ball, but as he reached the upper levels of the minors he struggled to get hitters out and gave up a ton of home runs. Something clicked for him in 2005, and he began to dominate once again in AA and eventually AAA before being called up for good in 2006. He struggled in his rookie season, but since then he’s been an outstanding pitcher for the Rays.
The Rays were able to sign Shields to a fantastic contract early in his career, guaranteeing him $11.25 million over 4 years. While the guaranteed part of the contract was a smart investment, the real key here were the club controlled years. Shields gave up his free agent seasons to the Rays for $28 million over three season, with Tampa retaining the ability to buyout his contract for $1-2 million at the beginning of each season. In other words, if Shields was productive the Rays would pay him at a significantly discounted rate, and if he struggled they weren’t obligated to pay him his free agent value. It’s moves like these that allow the Rays to compete despite their financial disadvantage.
So what can we expect from “Big Game” James? With a fastball averaging 90-91 MPH Shields isn’t going to blow anybody away. However his change up is one of the best in the majors, and he should continue to strike out nearly a batter an inning with it. He shows very good control, and this should help limit the damage and help prevent having too many runners on base for when he inevitably gives up a home run. Coming off a career year it’s unlikely James will have another sub 3 ERA season, but he should be able to post a 3.50 ERA. With his ability to go deep into games he’ll keep the pressure off some of the younger pitchers in the rotation and keep the bullpen rested.
Because of Tampa’s financial situation, Shields will always be mentioned in trade rumors. However he’s a key member of the Rays rotation, and they’ll need another strong season out of Shields if they plan on making the playoffs.
2012 Prediction: 3.55 ERA, 17-11, 8.00 K/9, 2.23 BB/9, 1.17 WHIP.
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