Finally given an opportunity to play everyday, Matt Joyce broke out in a big way for the Rays. His outstanding first half which saw the right fielder hit 290/351/513 with 12 homers and 41 RBI earned him a spot in the All Star Game. Joyce slowed down in the second half, but overall it was a positive season for the 26 year old as he’s proven he can hit in the middle of the lineup for the Rays.

Joyce is a solid defensive right fielder who can contribute all across the board. He shows good patience which allows him to post strong on base numbers, and he hits for good power (201 ISO). Joyce was a surprisingly good base runner this season, stealing 13 bases while only being caught once. Joe Maddon likes to play an aggressive style of baseball, and it’s possible that we could see Joyce stealing a similar amount in 2012.

The only flaw in Joyce’s game is that he can’t hit left handed pitchers. Over his career Joyce has an 867 OPS vs right handed pitching, but an embarrassing 601 OPS vs southpaws. So it’s likely that next season Joyce will be platooned so that he doesn’t start against lefties.

Tampa Bay acquired Joyce a few years ago in a trade with the Detroit Tigers for Edwin Jackson. At the time Jackson was just starting to scratch the surface of his potential, but the Rays had a significant amount of depth in their rotation. The outfield wasn’t nearly as deep as the rotation, especially with Carl Crawford nearing free agency. It was a good trade that worked out for both sides, as the Tigers would later use Edwin Jackson as part of a three team trade to acquire Max Scherzer, Austin Jackson, Phil Coke and Daniel Schlereth.

Coming off a break out season many expected Joyce to be signed by the Rays to a long term deal. However, that hasn’t happened yet, which leads me to believe that Tampa doesn’t feel he’ll be valued properly in arbitration. Typically the Rays sign their core players early in their careers, which is why it was a surprise that Joyce hasn’t been extended yet.

Regardless of Joyce’s contract situation, he remains a key component of the Tampa offence. There’s less pressure on him being the lone pure left handed bat in the lineup with the additions of Luke Scott and Carlos Pena. Joyce could potentially be the best hitter of the trio, and a strong season by him could net him a big contract and a playoff appearance with the Rays.

2012 Prediction: 270 BA, 18 HR, 80 RBI, 65 runs, 10 SB.

Part 1: 2B Ben Zobrist

Part 2: OF Desmond Jennings

Part 3: SP James Shields

Coming off a down year in 2010, nobody knew what to expect from James Shields. In the past he’d proven to be a dependable arm in the rotation capable of going deep into games, but he struggled throughout the season. Most of James’ problems in 2010 were due to allowing too many hits and home runs, and it led to his embarrassing 5.18 ERA.

Well, in 2011 Shields was able to correct those problems, and the results were nothing short of incredible. Shields went 16-12 with a 2.82 ERA (3.42 FIP), striking out just over 8 batters an inning while earning 4.9 WAR. Even more impressive is that he did that while pitching a career high 249 1/3 innings during the regular season. It was a career year for the right hander, and heading into 2012 he’ll be expected to lead the young rotation along with lefty David Price.

Shields was a 16th round pick back in 2000, another key player who the Tampa Bay Rays drafted in the later rounds. He was initially successful in A ball, but as he reached the upper levels of the minors he struggled to get hitters out and gave up a ton of home runs. Something clicked for him in 2005, and he began to dominate once again in AA and eventually AAA before being called up for good in 2006. He struggled in his rookie season, but since then he’s been an outstanding pitcher for the Rays.

The Rays were able to sign Shields to a fantastic contract early in his career, guaranteeing him $11.25 million over 4 years. While the guaranteed part of the contract was a smart investment, the real key here were the club controlled years. Shields gave up his free agent seasons to the Rays for $28 million over three season, with Tampa retaining the ability to buyout his contract for $1-2 million at the beginning of each season. In other words, if Shields was productive the Rays would pay him at a significantly discounted rate, and if he struggled they weren’t obligated to pay him his free agent value. It’s moves like these that allow the Rays to compete despite their financial disadvantage.

So what can we expect from “Big Game” James? With a fastball averaging 90-91 MPH Shields isn’t going to blow anybody away. However his change up is one of the best in the majors, and he should continue to strike out nearly a batter an inning with it. He shows very good control, and this should help limit the damage and help prevent having too many runners on base for when he inevitably gives up a home run. Coming off a career year it’s unlikely James will have another sub 3 ERA season, but he should be able to post a 3.50 ERA. With his ability to go deep into games he’ll keep the pressure off some of the younger pitchers in the rotation and keep the bullpen rested.

Because of Tampa’s financial situation, Shields will always be mentioned in trade rumors. However he’s a key member of the Rays rotation, and they’ll need another strong season out of Shields if they plan on making the playoffs.

2012 Prediction: 3.55 ERA, 17-11, 8.00 K/9, 2.23 BB/9, 1.17 WHIP.

Part 1: 2B Ben Zobrist

Part 2: OF Desmond Jennings

Gimenez batted .203/.314/.271 last season but was designated for assignment by the Seattle Mariners earlier this week. Aside from catching, Gimenez also has experience playing first base.

Despite losing Carl Crawford earlier in the season, the Rays were able to find a replacement for him in left – one whom might be even better then the former franchise icon. In his first extended opportunity, Desmond Jennings delivered on his potential and is locked in as the leadoff hitter and starting LF for the next six seasons. The 25 year old can beat you with his glove, his speed and with his bat. In 2011 Jennings hit 259/356/449 (31% above league average) in 247 at bats, hitting 10 homers, stealing 20 bases and earning 2.4 WAR.

Jennings was a 10th round pick back in 2006. The Rays were very patient with his development, often letting him spend a full season in each level of the minors so that they would not rush him. Since the Rays cannot spend a significant amount on their payroll, it is important that when they call up a player they are ready to perform, as they cannot risk wasting service time on a player who isn’t ready. Jennings was no exception, and his performance as a catalyst to the lineup is one of the reasons the Rays beat out the Red Sox for a playoff spot.

In the minors Jennings had a 294 batting average and showed fantastic plate discipline, which is important for a leadoff hitter. He struggled towards the end of the season in the majors, likely because pitchers began adjusting to him. As he gains experience in the with the Rays, Jennings will likely hit for a better average and continue to show strong on base skills. He didn’t hit for much power in the minors, so it will be interesting to see if his power carries forward in the future. If BJ Upton is traded, or leaves the Rays after 2012 via free agency, it’s likely that Desmond Jennings will be given an opportunity to become the everyday center fielder.

The continued success of Jennings will go a long way towards determining if the Tampa Bay Rays can make the playoffs. His speed will be extremely disruptive on the bases, distracting pitchers while potentially giving Upton and Evan Longoria better pitches to hit. He’s a fantastic defender in left which will help the Rays pitchers get through innings more efficiently. Jennings has proven himself as a bona fide major leaguer, and in a few years it wouldn’t be a surprise if he turned himself into one of the best all around outfielders in the game.

2012 Prediction: 275/370/430, 14 HR, 55 RBI, 100 runs, 35 SB.

Part 1: 2B Ben Zobrist

Ben Zobrist is not only one of the best players on a loaded Rays squad, but he’s one of the most underrated stars in the game. Over the past three years, Zobrist has posted an 820 OPS, good enough to be 26% above league average. Zobrist has accumulated 19.2 fWAR over the past three years, making him the third most valuable position player during that time. How does a guy with an 800 OPS become one of the best players in the game? Zobrist plays fantastic defence at second base and right field, and his ability to play so many positions at an elite level is key to giving Maddon the flexibility to platoon different players. It’s an underrated skill that makes Zobrist so valuable to the Rays. Add in that he’s a terrific base stealer, and Zobrist is a player who can contribute across the board.

The Rays have often (and inaccurately) been criticized for winning because of their top picks. However, Zobrist is proof that a smart front office like the Rays can combine scouting and sabermetrics to acquire quality players even without a top pick. In 2006 the Rays traded Aubrey Huff and some cash to the Astros for Mitch Talbot and Ben Zobrist. At the time, Zobrist was a shortstop who had little power, but showed fantastic plate discipline in the minors. Often players like Zobrist who show strong K:BB ratios are able to improve as they age, and Zobrist was no exception. He didn’t break out until he was 27, and even then it was only in a part time role. Zobrist hit 12 homers in 227 at bats that season, a stunning figure given that he only hit 23 in the minors. Was this a fluke, or did Zobrist finally unlock his potential?

In 2009 the Rays gave Zobrist the opportunity he needed and he made the most of it. He hit 297/405/543, blasted 27 home runs, and was worth 8.7 fWAR. It was a stunning season for Zobrist, one which led the Rays to sign him to a 4 year deal worth $18M and carrying team options for 2014/2015. Zobrist would get his financial security as a player breaking out as a 28 year old, while the Rays would pay pennies on the dollars for one of the best players in the game.

So what can we expect from Zobrist? In 2011 he him hit 269/353/469 (31% above average according to wRC+), with 20 homers, 99 RBI, 19 steals and a 6.6 fWAR. That’s a pretty safe expectation for 2012- but with a slight boost to his RBI total. Evan Longoria missed some time due to injuries, and with him healthy for the season and Desmond Jennings getting an opportunity to bat leadoff, Zobrist should easily eclipse the 100 RBI mark.

Zobrist may not have the flashy speed of Jacoby Ellsbury, the ability to hit for average like Pujols, or the raw power of Jose Bautista. But Zobrist’s all around game and ability to be above average in terms of power, speed, plate discipline and defence allows him to perform like one of the best players in the game. And make no mistake, that’s exactly what Ben Zobrist is – an elite player capable of leading the Rays to their fourth playoff appearance in five years.

2012 Prediction: 275/365/475, 23 HR, 104 RBI, 95 runs, 18 SB.

Pena has been a model of consistency.  In eleven seasons as a pro, Pena has averaged 34HR, 96 RBI, 83 Runs to go along with a .239/.352/.486 line.  He plays average defense while handling his duties first base with a .994 fielding percentage (league average 1B fielding % .994).  League average stats for first base are .263 AVG, 21 HR, 69 runs, 80 RBI, 4 SB.  That line almost replicates what Pena posted in 2011.  The real issue for Pena is his platoon splits.  In 2011, Pena hit .133/.260/.333 vs. lefties (.210/.309/.426 career avg.) and .255/.388/.504 vs. righties (.251/.370/.513 career avg.).  In Pena, the Rays know exactly what they are getting, but are they paying too much for what they are getting?

The prices for a win as related to WAR (wins above replacement) are around $4.5M/win.  Pena, in 2011, posted a 2.6 WAR rating.  That number is an increase from 1.1 he posted when he was last a Ray in 2010.  The fans projection over at fangraphs.com have Pena penciled in for 2.7 WAR for 2012.  I think that is probably a little optimistic.  Around 2.0-2.2 WAR is more realistic, which according to the going rate for WAR makes his $7.25M deal looks reasonable.  The fact that the Trop suppresses homeruns to lefties (89 rating where 100 is neutral) does not bode well for Penas’ return to the Bay.  However, in Pena’s last stint as a Ray (2007-2010) he hit 74 bombs in 935 AB’s at home and 70 bombs in 1000 AB’s away, so it looks like he was able to overcome the park factors that Tropicana places on LH hitters. 

In conclusion, I get the signing.  The Rays are getting a consistent platoon playing first baseman that plays league average defense.  I only wish that during the winter meetings they would have looked into acquiring a young first baseman via trade.  We all know that James Shields played out of his mind in 2011, and that he is a great trade chip.  We have seen the hauls that Matt Latos, Gio Gonzales, and Michael Pineda returned to their teams by trade.  Someone like Rizzo, Yonder Alonso, or Jesus Montero would have provided a cheap upside alternative to an aging Pena.  Other FA that were still available at the time of the signing were Derrek Lee, Casey Kotchman, and, oh yeah, Prince Fielder.   

Well Rays fans, enjoy watching your league average first baseman in 2012.

Aaron Price, follow me on twitter @baseballrantman

Pena had a solid rebound season with the Cubs, hitting 225/357/462 with 28 home runs and 80 runs driven in with just 500 under PA. More importantly, Pena showed he could still crush right handed pitching, coming in with a very impressive 892 OPS. Hopefully the Rays will decide to platoon Pena, as he is extremely ineffective against left handed pitching.

With the additions of Luke Scott and Pena, the Rays have added two veteran bats who can easily replace the production of Casey Kotchman and Johnny Damon. While Damon and Kotchman are more likely to hit for a higher average, Pena and Scott should provide the Rays with better on base skills and more importantly more power. This should lead to much better production from their 1B and DH. Last year only Longoria hit more than 25 home runs, and there’s a good chance that both Scott and Pena could do that in 2012.

The Rays ranked 8th in runs scored last season at 707, and the additions of Pena and Scott should make them one of the top 4 offences in the AL. This would give the Rays very good odds of making their 5th playoff appearance in 6 years, as their pitching ranks amongst the best in the AL.

Pena was one of the best hitters available in free agency, and the Rays were able to sign him at a discounted price. It’s a fantastic deal, and it gives the Rays a legitimate option for first base this season.

With plus defenders like Desmond Jennings, BJ Upton and Matt Joyce, it’s unlikely that Scott will see time in the outfield. However, he would be a significant upgrade over the Rays previous DH, Johnny Damon. The Rays ranked 12th in the AL in OPS from their DH, so even if Scott hits to his career averages (843 OPS), he would likely rank among the top designated hitters in the league.

Even if Scott rebounds, he is unlikely to perform as well as he did in his best days as an Oriole. Camden Yards is a much more hitter friendly hitters  park than Tropicana Field, especially when it comes to left handed power hitters like Scott. Over his career Scott has posted a 922 OPS at home compared to a 763 OPS on the road.

Joe Maddon is a very creative manager, but I wouldn’t expect him to platoon Scott. While he is significantly better against right handed pitching, there aren’t many options on the bench who would be better than Scott. Additionally, Damon played against both left and right handed pitchers last season, so it’s likely that Scott will be playing in a fulltime role for the Rays.

The Rays ranked 8th in runs scored in theALlast season, even failing to score less runs thanBaltimore. With several defensive specialists in the lineup like Jose Molina and potentially Reid Brignac, the Rays success may hinge on the successful rebound of Luke Scott.

It’s an interesting theory, especially for a guy with a high walk rate like Rodney. If he can cut the walk rates back to his career rate (4.9BB/9), he may have some value. It’s possible that the Rays believe that the high groundball rate will lead to more double plays, which will neutralize the damage of putting so many base runners on.

Rodney hasn’t had a sub 4.00 ERA since 2006, meaning that he’s been below the league average ERA for 3 of the past 5 seasons. He isn’t likely to close or set up for the Rays, so he’ll likely pitch in the 6th or 7th innings to start. If Rodney can cut down on the walks and become a more reliable reliever, then the Rays might give him an opportunity to set up for Kyle Farnsworth.

The signing of Rodney gives the Rays a significant number of options for the bullpen. Kyle Farnsworth, Joel Peralta and Jake McGee are likely guaranteed a spot, while Brandon Gomes, Adam Russell, Cesar Ramos and Alexander Torres could conceivably fight for a spot along with Fernando Rodney.

There’s little chance Posada will see any time behind the plate. He caught a grand total of 6 innings last year, as New York was extremely reluctant to let him catch last year. With Jose Molina, Jose Labaton or Robinson Chirinos as catching options, the Rays likely won’t let him catch either. So Posada will be limited to first base or DH.

Posada’s always had an outstanding bat for a catcher, but at this point in his career he shouldn’t be considered an option at a critical offensive position.  His 714 OPS was the worst of his career, and he’s unlikely to improve on that for 2012. While Posada has typically been equally effective against right and left handed pitching, he was a total liability against southpaws (277 OPS). He was useful against right handed pitching (814 OPS), so it’s possible he may have some value as a backup.

He’ll likely come cheap, which is one of the reasons why the Rays might be interested in him. However, he can’t hit, and his fielding is below average, so he doesn’t bring much to the team outside of the classic “veteran experience”.

Baltimore and Philadelphia also showed some interest in Posada. Although if Posada isn’t retiring, it’s surprising he hasn’t made a decision (assuming he was given an offer).