Pena has been a model of consistency.  In eleven seasons as a pro, Pena has averaged 34HR, 96 RBI, 83 Runs to go along with a .239/.352/.486 line.  He plays average defense while handling his duties first base with a .994 fielding percentage (league average 1B fielding % .994).  League average stats for first base are .263 AVG, 21 HR, 69 runs, 80 RBI, 4 SB.  That line almost replicates what Pena posted in 2011.  The real issue for Pena is his platoon splits.  In 2011, Pena hit .133/.260/.333 vs. lefties (.210/.309/.426 career avg.) and .255/.388/.504 vs. righties (.251/.370/.513 career avg.).  In Pena, the Rays know exactly what they are getting, but are they paying too much for what they are getting?

The prices for a win as related to WAR (wins above replacement) are around $4.5M/win.  Pena, in 2011, posted a 2.6 WAR rating.  That number is an increase from 1.1 he posted when he was last a Ray in 2010.  The fans projection over at fangraphs.com have Pena penciled in for 2.7 WAR for 2012.  I think that is probably a little optimistic.  Around 2.0-2.2 WAR is more realistic, which according to the going rate for WAR makes his $7.25M deal looks reasonable.  The fact that the Trop suppresses homeruns to lefties (89 rating where 100 is neutral) does not bode well for Penas’ return to the Bay.  However, in Pena’s last stint as a Ray (2007-2010) he hit 74 bombs in 935 AB’s at home and 70 bombs in 1000 AB’s away, so it looks like he was able to overcome the park factors that Tropicana places on LH hitters. 

In conclusion, I get the signing.  The Rays are getting a consistent platoon playing first baseman that plays league average defense.  I only wish that during the winter meetings they would have looked into acquiring a young first baseman via trade.  We all know that James Shields played out of his mind in 2011, and that he is a great trade chip.  We have seen the hauls that Matt Latos, Gio Gonzales, and Michael Pineda returned to their teams by trade.  Someone like Rizzo, Yonder Alonso, or Jesus Montero would have provided a cheap upside alternative to an aging Pena.  Other FA that were still available at the time of the signing were Derrek Lee, Casey Kotchman, and, oh yeah, Prince Fielder.   

Well Rays fans, enjoy watching your league average first baseman in 2012.

Aaron Price, follow me on twitter @baseballrantman

Pena had a solid rebound season with the Cubs, hitting 225/357/462 with 28 home runs and 80 runs driven in with just 500 under PA. More importantly, Pena showed he could still crush right handed pitching, coming in with a very impressive 892 OPS. Hopefully the Rays will decide to platoon Pena, as he is extremely ineffective against left handed pitching.

With the additions of Luke Scott and Pena, the Rays have added two veteran bats who can easily replace the production of Casey Kotchman and Johnny Damon. While Damon and Kotchman are more likely to hit for a higher average, Pena and Scott should provide the Rays with better on base skills and more importantly more power. This should lead to much better production from their 1B and DH. Last year only Longoria hit more than 25 home runs, and there’s a good chance that both Scott and Pena could do that in 2012.

The Rays ranked 8th in runs scored last season at 707, and the additions of Pena and Scott should make them one of the top 4 offences in the AL. This would give the Rays very good odds of making their 5th playoff appearance in 6 years, as their pitching ranks amongst the best in the AL.

Pena was one of the best hitters available in free agency, and the Rays were able to sign him at a discounted price. It’s a fantastic deal, and it gives the Rays a legitimate option for first base this season.

With plus defenders like Desmond Jennings, BJ Upton and Matt Joyce, it’s unlikely that Scott will see time in the outfield. However, he would be a significant upgrade over the Rays previous DH, Johnny Damon. The Rays ranked 12th in the AL in OPS from their DH, so even if Scott hits to his career averages (843 OPS), he would likely rank among the top designated hitters in the league.

Even if Scott rebounds, he is unlikely to perform as well as he did in his best days as an Oriole. Camden Yards is a much more hitter friendly hitters  park than Tropicana Field, especially when it comes to left handed power hitters like Scott. Over his career Scott has posted a 922 OPS at home compared to a 763 OPS on the road.

Joe Maddon is a very creative manager, but I wouldn’t expect him to platoon Scott. While he is significantly better against right handed pitching, there aren’t many options on the bench who would be better than Scott. Additionally, Damon played against both left and right handed pitchers last season, so it’s likely that Scott will be playing in a fulltime role for the Rays.

The Rays ranked 8th in runs scored in theALlast season, even failing to score less runs thanBaltimore. With several defensive specialists in the lineup like Jose Molina and potentially Reid Brignac, the Rays success may hinge on the successful rebound of Luke Scott.

It’s an interesting theory, especially for a guy with a high walk rate like Rodney. If he can cut the walk rates back to his career rate (4.9BB/9), he may have some value. It’s possible that the Rays believe that the high groundball rate will lead to more double plays, which will neutralize the damage of putting so many base runners on.

Rodney hasn’t had a sub 4.00 ERA since 2006, meaning that he’s been below the league average ERA for 3 of the past 5 seasons. He isn’t likely to close or set up for the Rays, so he’ll likely pitch in the 6th or 7th innings to start. If Rodney can cut down on the walks and become a more reliable reliever, then the Rays might give him an opportunity to set up for Kyle Farnsworth.

The signing of Rodney gives the Rays a significant number of options for the bullpen. Kyle Farnsworth, Joel Peralta and Jake McGee are likely guaranteed a spot, while Brandon Gomes, Adam Russell, Cesar Ramos and Alexander Torres could conceivably fight for a spot along with Fernando Rodney.

There’s little chance Posada will see any time behind the plate. He caught a grand total of 6 innings last year, as New York was extremely reluctant to let him catch last year. With Jose Molina, Jose Labaton or Robinson Chirinos as catching options, the Rays likely won’t let him catch either. So Posada will be limited to first base or DH.

Posada’s always had an outstanding bat for a catcher, but at this point in his career he shouldn’t be considered an option at a critical offensive position.  His 714 OPS was the worst of his career, and he’s unlikely to improve on that for 2012. While Posada has typically been equally effective against right and left handed pitching, he was a total liability against southpaws (277 OPS). He was useful against right handed pitching (814 OPS), so it’s possible he may have some value as a backup.

He’ll likely come cheap, which is one of the reasons why the Rays might be interested in him. However, he can’t hit, and his fielding is below average, so he doesn’t bring much to the team outside of the classic “veteran experience”.

Baltimore and Philadelphia also showed some interest in Posada. Although if Posada isn’t retiring, it’s surprising he hasn’t made a decision (assuming he was given an offer).

Maicer Izturis. The Angels utility infielder is a pending free agent, making $3.8 million. So he’ll clearly fit into the Rays budget. He was a league average hitter last season, hitting 276/334/388 and earning 2 WAR over a career high 122 games. He’s a solid defender, and his ability to play multiple positions will make him an effective weapon for Joe Maddon. He’s a switch hitter who has historically done equally well against right and left handed pitchers, so he doesn’t need to be platooned.

What can the Rays trade that will interest the Angels? Anaheim’s bullpen really struggled last season, ranking 10th in FIP. There’s not a lot of depth in the bullpen, as they primarily rely on Jordan Walden, Scott Downs and Rich Thompson. With a lineup that is pretty questionable outside of Pujols, they’re going to need a deep bullpen in order to win games. The Rays have fantastic depth in their bullpen, and could afford to move someone like Brandon Gomes for Izturis. Gomes went 2-1 with a 2.92 ERA in 37 innings last season. With the Angels trying to cut back on payroll after signing Pujols and Wilson, getting rid of Izturis’ 3.8M and getting back a player making the league minimum who has several years of club control would be tough to turn down.

Izturis may not be the flashy SS Rays fans might be expecting. But he’s a quality contributor, who has a solid glove with a league average bat that could be worth 2 wins for the Rays. And with the second wild card forcing teams to fight harder for the division, those wins could be the difference between playing or watching baseball in October.

The Rays could use their pitching depth to improve their offence, which ranked 8th in the AL last season. They got virtually no production out of their first basemen last year, as Tampa’s 1B ranked 13th in the AL with a 745 OPS. Their DH production was a nearly identical 744 OPS, so it’s clear the Rays have some room for improvement. Flipping one of their starters for a big bat would go a long way towards helping them make their fourth playoff appearance in five seasons.

Another spot they could upgrade is SS, where Reid Brignac showed he was completely overmatched. The Rays shortstops hit…no, flailed to the tune of a 193/256/282 line, ranking last in the majors. You have to wonder if GM Andrew Friedman would really give Brignac another shot at short, or if they have another move up their sleeve. Heading into 2012 Brignac might be the worst SS in the game.

The Rays would be best suited to trade Jeff Niemann. He’s very injury prone, a major reason why he’s never thrown more than 180 2/3 innings at the major league level. He’s arbitration eligible, and might be overvalued because of his low ERA and strong record. The former due to the ballpark he pitches in and his stellar defence, while the latter is a result of playing for a winning team. The Rays can’t afford to spend more on a player than he is worth, especially for a non-elite, injury prone one like Niemann.

Unfortunately, those same concerns are why many expect Wade Davis to be traded before Niemann. Davis is only guaranteed $11.6M over the next 3 seasons, followed by 3 club controlled option years for $25M. Davis has struggled to strike batters out while showing poor control, a scary combination for a starting pitcher. Davis’ swinging strike rate has decreased in 3 straight seasons, which means that batters are no longer fooled by his stuff. With pitchers like Alex Torres and Alex Cobb ready for the majors, Davis won’t be able to keep his job for much longer if he doesn’t start fooling more hitters.

One thing is clear – somebody is going to have to be traded. The Rays could demote Cobb and Torres to the minors, or keep them in the bullpen. But that would be a waste of their talent, and depending on how the Red Sox rebound, might just cost the Rays a playoff spot.

Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

Sometimes, a team pulls off a move that just makes you sit back in awe. Today, the Rays are that team, signing Matt Moore to a 5 year deal worth nearly $14 million. If that wasn’t enough of a bargain, they also hold club options for the next three years, meaning that Moore could make $40 million over 8 seasons.

You just have to tip your cap to the Rays management on this one. Signing a player like Moore, who has the potential to be one of the best pitchers in the game, to a contract that will pay him $10 million in his 8th professional season is just unreal. At a time when pitchers are earning 15-23 million per year during their free agent seasons, Moore will only earn $10 million.

There’s always a risk in signing a player who is as unproven as Moore. However, given how little the Rays are paying him, Moore would have to be one of the worst pitchers in baseball in order to make this anything less than a steal for the Rays.

Just as a comparison of what some pitchers made towards the end of their arbitration years, regardless of whether they went year by year or were signed to an extension:

Felix Hernandez – 20.3M over his arbitration years and 38M over his first 2 free agent years

Tim Lincecum – 23M over his first two arbitration years, and likely another 15-17M for this season in arbitration

Justin Verlander – 23.175M for arbitration, 40M over his first two free agent seasons.

And Matt Moore? 15M over his arbitration years, and 19.5M over his first two free agent seasons. Or nearly half of what the other guys are making.

Again, there’s no guarantee that Moore turns into a Verlander or a Lincecum. But there’s no question that is his upside, and in his limited time he was absolutely dominant. In his 3 appearances during the regular season, Moore went 1-0 in 9 1/3 innings, striking out 15 and walking 3 while posting a 2.89 ERA. He saved his best for the post season, going 1-0 with a 0.90 ERA against a lethal Texas offence.

The Rays have potentially saved themselves $25-30 million over the life of this deal, a significant amount for a team that’s likely to have a $60 million payroll.

Just an outstanding job by the Rays here.

By Chris O'Meara, AP

In one of the rare mistakes by the Rays, Tampa has traded catcher John Jaso for Mariners reliever Jose Lueke. Jaso’s struggles played a key part in this trade, as he hit 224/298/354 last season. He had poor luck on balls put in play, posting a BABIP of 244. Most hitters generally are closer to 300, and had Jaso posted last year’s 282, his batting line would have improved to 262/336/392. A solid batting line for a catcher, even one with defensive issues like Jaso.

At 29 Jaso doesn’t possess much upside. His ceiling is likely that of a league average catcher. But that’s not a bad thing, especially from a guy who isn’t even arbitration eligible in 2012. He’s cost controlled for several years, and getting even average production out of a cheap player is a valuable asset. That the Rays of all teams sold low, is a tough blow, as they need cheap productive players like Jaso in order to compete. What makes this worse for the Rays is that Shoppach was the only other catcher on the roster who wasn’t below replacement level, and he’s unlikely to return. So the Rays weren’t even dealing from a strength (catching), to improve their pen.

Joining Tampa is Josh Lueke, a troubled right hander who was part of the controversial package for Cliff Lee. Lueke posted a 6 ERA in 32 innings, although his peripheral stats suggest that he should improve upon this season. With an 8K/9, and a 3.58 BB/9, his FIP shows a much more impressive 3.24. So there is some upside here, but as previously mentioned it comes with a lot of baggage. Lueke was charged with rape and sodomy, although he pled down to lesser charges.

This is a great move for the M’s, who have been lacking an option at catcher. While the Rays have boosted their bullpen, the question is will it be worth it? There isn’t anybody in Tampa’s system right now who would be as good an option as Jaso, so you have to wonder why the Rays made this move. Obviously, it’s possible that Jaso peaked in 2010 and will never come close to that. But the sad thing is, Jaso might have been the best catching option heading into the 2012 season.

Still, given that the Rays didn’t have any real options as a backup catcher, this is a solid move. Nobody expects Molina to hit as well as he did last season – but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s still a significant upgrade over the Rays other options. Shoppach isn’t expected to return to the Rays, leaving them with Jaso and a couple of sub-replacement level options. Molina should come cheap, which is another bonus for the Rays.

As Morosi points out, Molina has spent a significant amount of time with the Yankees and Jays recently, and knowledge of their pitching staff as well as their hitters’ weaknesses should come in handy. The Rays already boast a wealth of pitching, so a quality defender who can point out the weaknesses in their rivals gives him a small advantage over other backup options.

The Molina signing isn’t going to make or break the Tampa’s season, but the Rays are going to need a quality bench to go head to head with the Sox & Yankees. They made the playoffs on the last day of the season, and they’ll likely face a similar situation next season. Adding a quality guy like Molina is a step in the right direction.