With spring training officially just under a month away, we continue with a series of projections on what the 2012 Toronto Blue Jays might look like. Each day (don’t hold me to this), I will profile a 2012 Blue Jays starter, closing with a set of numbers based on my (usually positive) expectations. Today, we finish up our look at the on-field lineup with a few words on (arguably) the team’s only star player, right fielder Jose Bautista.
At this point, what else is there to be said about Jose Bautista? Surely, after 2011, even the most ardent members of the regression police would have to accept that maybe this former journeyman is pretty damned good, after all. To be fair here, I didn’t see it coming either: firmly in the skeptics’ camp, I thought Bautista would have a down year after his 54-home run revelation in 2010. How else was I suppose to explain a ISO that was more than double over his previous career rate? That it just happened because he added a leg kick to his mechanics? Power surges like that flies in the face of conventional views on player progression, especially when it’s coming from a 29-year old.
With an extreme fly ball approach, and a line drive rate that was declining as a result, it seemed reasonable to me at the time that as soon as the power normalized, Bautista would just be who he was before – an average hitter (don’t forget, he never hit over .254, and had an OPS over .800 until 2010) with decent power. Whatever Bautista was going to be, I thought “surely, he would not be the home run record-setting monster we saw in 2010.”
In the literal sense, I suppose I was right. Bautista wasn’t that guy, and didn’t hit nearly as many home runs as he did in 2010; instead, he did one better, and became a complete hitter.
If Bautista’s power surge was a surprise to the baseball world, I can’t possibly imagine how his complete transformation into the best hitter in the league could have been forseen by even the biggest Jose Bautista believer. Topping his accomplishments in 2010 in every tangible sense, Bautista set career highs in virtually every statistic you could use to evaluate a hitter, while maintaining a MLB-best .306 ISO (the only player with .300+ ISO power last season). He reduced his overall strikeout rate to a career low 16.9%, and increased his walk rate by a some 38% to a by-far-and-away MLB best 20.2%. By the all-star break, Bautista had a .334/.468/.702 triple slash, and he finished the 8.3 WAR season leading the league with 43 home runs. You might make the argument that the most valuable player isn’t always the best hitter in the game (I had no problem with the Verlander choice), but there’s very little doubt in my mind that there was anyone better with the bat than Jose in 2010.
Yes, the power game normalized, and I think it’s fair to say that even if Bautista leads the league in home runs over the entirety of his contract with the Blue Jays, there’s a good chance we’ll never see 50+ again. That said, the 2011 version of Bautista was so much more dominating, exciting to watch, and just simply so much better than the guy who hit 54 home runs in 2010; who cares if the home run numbers going forward are slightly less spectacular?
But even with the best of players, there are concerns. There is this idea of a post-break swoon from Bautista that saw him hit just .257 after the all-star break, dropping his overall season BA to .302. Of course, he still put up a .896 OPS during those “down months” where his BB rate nudged up to over 21%, so I can’t exactly say it was a major concern. Batting averages can be a fickle thing, and while Bautista’s .309 BABIP in 2011 is a significant career high for him, consider also that it is the 2nd lowest among the top 20 MLB batting leaders. Frankly, if the absolute worst Jose Bautista we saw in 2011 (.835 OPS June) was a top-40 player in the league, I’m just not all that worried.
The fact is, over the last 2 seasons, only Miguel Cabrera posted a better average OPS than Jose Bautista. Considering that Cabrera is probably the best hitter in the game, period, I think that’s pretty damned good that we’ve got a guy who has shown more power, draws more walks, and doesn’t cost $19 million a year.
Now, the hardest part about all this is how do you go about forecasting Bautista going forward? He exceeded all expectations in 2011; can we expect him to do the same in 2012? Not taking anything away from Bautista’s accomplishments, but I do think that he’s more or less hit a peak in 2011. Multiple 8+ WAR seasons isn’t really something that players are likely to do unless your name is Albert Pujols; and while I think Bautista will still perform at an elite level, there is still a fair degree of fluctuation from year-to-year among elite players, whether you’re Matt Kemp, Joey Votto, Ryan Braun, or Jose Bautista.
With that said, I still think Jose will easily be the best player on the 2012 Blue Jays:
650 PA, .295/.415/.595, 40 HR, 11 SB
The main thing that I think we’ll see a slight drop is the batting average. With the new approach, Bautista still hit .260 despite a career-low .233 BABIP in 2010, while hitting .302 with a career-high last year .309 BABIP. Assuming the luck factor normalizes things to his career profile of .280 or so, I would guess his BA will settle comfortably in the .290 range. He’ll like draw just as many walks as last season with a continued spike in IBBs, and hopefully break the 10 SB mark for the first time in his career. Bautista attempted more stolen bases in 2011 than any of his previous seasons, and without a legit cleanup hitter behind him, I think he’ll be given a good number of chances to run this year as well.
Home run numbers aren’t the biggest deal to me here – I think he’s got the power to hit 40+, but I’d be perfectly happy with 35. The American League might have added Prince and Albert this off-season, but I think Bautista will be up there, if not leading, in the home run column at the end of the season. In all, I’ve got Bautista posting a 2nd straight 1.000+ OPS season; it’d be an unlikely accomplishment for even the best of MLB players, to say the least, but Jose Bautista has made the past two seasons of his career all about breaking through with unlikely accomplishments. I’m not about to second-guess him again.
Your comments on the matter are welcomed, as always. Does anyone think the 2012 Jose Bautista will be even better than the 2011 version? On the contrary, anyone think he’s due for a significant drop in performance?
Next: the pitching staff!
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Previous 2012 Blue Jays forecasts:
Part 1: J.P. Arencibia - 510 PA, .255/.315/.450, 26 HR
Part 2: Adam Lind – 600 PA, .260/.320/.445, 26 HR
Part 3: Kelly Johnson – 580 PA, .270/.350/.430, 16 HR, 11 SB
Part 4: Brett Lawrie – 610 PA, .280/.340/.490, 20 HR, 22 SB
Part 5: Yunel Escobar – 605 PA, .285/.365/.405, 10 HR, 5 SB
Part 6: Edwin Encarnacion – 580PA, .270/.330/.465, 23 HR, 6 SB
Part 7: Eric Thames – 300 PA, .270/.315/.455, 8 HR, 3 SB
Part 8: Travis Snider – 300 PA, .265/.315/.450, 9 HR, 5 SB
Part 9: Colby Rasmus – 590 PA, .260/.325/.445, 19 HR, 14 SB
the sad thing is, he had such a great season last year that it will probably be nearly impossible to top it.
I can see him batting in the .265-.280 range and pop 35-40hrs and drive in 100 runs…. still a great year but i just cant see him getting back to where he was last year. Last year was just crazy.
However…. if they got him some protection (not Lind) and changed even 15-20% of his walks into legitmate at bats, he could easily pop 45-50hrs again i think. I watched just about every game last year and even when pitchers came at him… they really didnt. He still made them pay on mistakes which was usually 1 per at bat. He just needs to see more pitches to continue the 40+ homer rate and near .300 avg… he wont get those numbers without help. The league im sure has learned after 2 seasons, he will probably walk more this year than 2011. i would give Lind a month in the clean up spot, if hes not producing, Move in Lawrie or somebody who is hitting. Bautista was walked so many times last year to load the bases for Lind… i think Lind hit a grand slam against kansas… other than that it was either a double play or dribbler to first. Make a trade for Votto!
Bautista will have another good year but for him go have a great year the jays have to trade for a serious bat to hit in the 4 hole. He walked 132 times last year ! 132 times! That number will go up thsi year as every team pitches around him to get to Lind who just can’t seem to get it together for any extended period of time. Linds silver slugger season is the worse thing to ever happen to the jays as now they just hope and prey that he can duplicate it again like some tinfoil hat wearing freaks waIting for the mothership to land and it’s quite obvious by now that it will not happen. Beltran turned them down for less money to play on grass and not be a fulltime DH. I think AA realizes he needs a bat but getting one will be the problem
I can not begin to forecast what Jose’s numbers will be in 2012.
One thing I can say is that Joey Bats will do whatever it takes to make
the JAYS a contender. He will adjust to whatever the pitchers are
offering.
The #4 hole is important and the JAYS have several possibilities. The
key is the other players. Somebody else has to step up.
Like Ricky said last year ” It can’t just be Jose ” .