Headed into the 2011 off-season, Alex Anthopoulos identified holes in both the starting rotation and bullpen – and while he’s rebuilt the latter with a series of moves, the team will go into the 2012 season with the same personnel that they finished 2011 with. Volatility, then, is probably something to be expected from the Blue Jays starting staff in the coming season, as only the #1 and #2 spots are truly set headed into spring, barring an acquisition in the coming days.

On a young staff that’s full of question marks, none is younger than 21-year old righty Henderson Alvarez. Ranked outside of the top 15 among Blue Jays prospects by Baseball Prospectus in 2011, Alvarez’s rapid ascent to the big leagues last season was an unlikely scenario, to put it lightly. He’d always shown season-to-season improvements since he first starting playing pro ball, and scouting reports on his stuff have always been glowing, even if the results haven’t always matched. That being said, this was a 21-year old who threw all of 4 innings during spring training, was sidelined by arm soreness, then started the season in High-A with Dunedin by getting hammered for 2 starts before being promoted to AA with the Fisher Cats. The major leagues were still some ways away.

By late June, however, something was clearly a bit different with Alvarez’s progression curve. We’d started hearing about the velocity on his sinking fastball, and how it’d jumped from the low 90s to a remarkable high-90s, even touching 101 according to Fisher Cats pitching coach Pete Walker. Armed along with a plus-change, Alvarez’s aggressive strike zone approach was finally yielding results that matched his stuff; by July, he was named to the Eastern League all-star game, having held his opponents to a .232 batting average with a 3.25 ERA.

Alvarez only got better from there, going 4-0 over his next 5 starts in New Hempshire, posting a career-high 7.56 K/9 during that stretch while giving up just 8 earned runs over 32.2 IP for a sparkling 2.20 ERA. With the Blue Jays rotation a bit of a patchwork mess by August whose the back end being filled up by Luis Perez and Carlos Villanueva (not to mention a largely ineffective Brett Cecil and Brandon Morrow), the unlikely opportunity was created for Alvarez to come up. After all, we’d tried just about everyone else, from Jo-Jo Reyes to Brad Mills – why not?

Personally, I wasn’t exactly a fan of the move, especially not after the team learned a little bit about the perils of youth with Drabek early in the season. Alvarez was only 21, and had thrown less than 100 innings in AA; bringing him up then seemed like giving a guy an opportunity to get a taste of what it’s like to get hammered in the bigs before an inevitable demotion – and what would be the point in that?

Unlike the line of starting pitchers that the Blue Jays had tried to stabilize the rotation, however, Alvarez more than held his own. There were some expected dips in a few statistical categories, of course: his K/9 dropped to 5.63, and the HR/9 went up to 1.13. Alvarez’s control of the strike zone, however, negated most of the significant damage. Faced with the toughest competition he’d seen thus far, Alvarez actually improved his strike zone control, posting a career-best 1.13 BB/9 over 10 starts with the Blue jays – an impressive display of hit-it-hard-if-you-can poise on the mound for a pitcher his age.

Not that there aren’t question marks surrounding him, of course: Alvarez’s repertoire is still quite raw headed into 2012, relying almost exclusively on his sinker and change-up to generate weak ground balls. He does have a work-in-progress slider which he used about 10% of the time in 2011, but the lack of a true 3rd pitch is definitely a concern, especially after hitters have seen his stuff a few times. As pitch-to-contact types tend to do, Alvarez also gives up a fair number of hits – with a H/9 just on the north side of 9, his 3.53 ERA in 2011 is likely to come up a bit, although it’ll still be heavily BABIP-influcenced (see: Trevor Cahill’s 2010 vs 2011). The lack of true strikeout stuff (6.4 swinging strike %) is something that’s going to test Alvarez’s ability to get out of high-leverage situations, and going to your best pitch 71.8% of the time isn’t exactly a recipe for continued success in that regard.

With that said, it was the impeccable control that got Alvarez to the Blue Jays in 2011, and I think it’s ultimately what’s going to keep him in the rotation to start 2012. If he can replicate even close to his 1.13 BB/9 in 2011 – league best among all pitchers with at least 60 IP – he’ll already be an elite arm in that regard. If getting a hit is the only way a runner is going to get on base against him, things are probably not going to get too far out of hand, even if Alvarez ends up giving up a couple of extra hits. And, of course, there’s the age thing. Alvarez will be entering his age-22 season this year, and we’ll probably see more than a fair share of rough patches as he continues to round out his secondary pitches, and continue to mature from a 2-pitch groundballer to…well, who knows?

Assuming he’ll get the starts, I think Alvarez is capable of being a reasonable 5th starter in 2012 with these numbers:

150 IP, 4.25 ERA / 1.28 WHIP, 5.7 K/9, 1.85 BB/9 

It’s hard to really put numbers based on 60 innings of major league ball, knowing that Alvarez will go into 2012 with future developments. That being said, his bread-and-butter pitch will still be the heavy sinker, a pitch that I’m fairly certain AL East hitters will adjust to quite quickly should Alvarez continue to throw it over over 65% of the time – which will in turn affect his willingness to pound the strike zone with it. Pitcher development is a volatile thing, and I wouldn’t call Alvarez anywhere close to a sure thing so early into his career; we do know, however, that he’s at least got enough stuff to get by in the American League over 10 starts last season – how well he can build off that should be interesting to watch in 2012.

I figure there’s probably a pretty wide range of opinions out there on the subject of Blue Jays starting pitching, so your thoughts and comments are welcomed. Personally, I think I’m pretty bear-ish when it comes to young pitchers – anyone have opposite thoughts about Alvarez? Is he already ready to break out in 2012 at just 22? Has he already earned a spot on the 2012 rotation with the 10 starts in ’11?

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Previous 2012 Blue Jays forecasts:

Part 1: J.P. Arencibia - 510 PA, .255/.315/.450, 26 HR
Part 2: Adam Lind – 600 PA, .260/.320/.445, 26 HR
Part 3: Kelly Johnson – 580 PA, .270/.350/.430, 16 HR, 11 SB
Part 4: Brett Lawrie – 610 PA, .280/.340/.490, 20 HR, 22 SB
Part 5: Yunel Escobar – 605 PA, .285/.365/.405, 10 HR, 5 SB
Part 6: Edwin Encarnacion – 580PA, .270/.330/.465, 23 HR, 6 SB
Part 7: Eric Thames – 300 PA, .270/.315/.455, 8 HR, 3 SB
Part 8: Travis Snider – 300 PA, .265/.315/.450, 9 HR, 5 SB
Part 9: Colby Rasmus – 590 PA, .260/.325/.445, 19 HR, 14 SB
Part 10: Jose Bautista – 650 PA, .295/.415/.595, 40 HR, 11 SB

At this point, what else is there to be said about Jose Bautista? Surely, after 2011, even the most ardent members of the regression police would have to accept that maybe this former journeyman is pretty damned good, after all. To be fair here, I didn’t see it coming either: firmly in the skeptics’ camp, I thought Bautista would have a down year after his 54-home run revelation in 2010. How else was I suppose to explain a ISO that was more than double over his previous career rate? That it just happened because he added a leg kick to his mechanics? Power surges like that flies in the face of conventional views on player progression, especially when it’s coming from a 29-year old.

With an extreme fly ball approach, and a line drive rate that was declining as a result, it seemed reasonable to me at the time that as soon as the power normalized, Bautista would just be who he was before – an average hitter (don’t forget, he never hit over .254, and had an OPS over .800 until 2010) with decent power. Whatever Bautista was going to be, I thought “surely, he would not be the home run record-setting monster we saw in 2010.”

In the literal sense, I suppose I was right. Bautista wasn’t that guy, and didn’t hit nearly as many home runs as he did in 2010; instead, he did one better, and became a complete hitter.

If Bautista’s power surge was a surprise to the baseball world, I can’t possibly imagine how his complete transformation into the best hitter in the league could have been forseen by even the biggest Jose Bautista believer. Topping his accomplishments in 2010 in every tangible sense, Bautista set career highs in virtually every statistic you could use to evaluate a hitter, while maintaining a MLB-best .306 ISO (the only player with .300+ ISO power last season). He reduced his overall strikeout rate to a career low 16.9%, and increased his walk rate by a some 38% to a by-far-and-away MLB best 20.2%. By the all-star break, Bautista had a .334/.468/.702 triple slash, and he finished the 8.3 WAR season leading the league with 43 home runs. You might make the argument that the most valuable player isn’t always the best hitter in the game (I had no problem with the Verlander choice), but there’s very little doubt in my mind that there was anyone better with the bat than Jose in 2010.

Yes, the power game normalized, and I think it’s fair to say that even if Bautista leads the league in home runs over the entirety of his contract with the Blue Jays, there’s a good chance we’ll never see 50+ again. That said, the 2011 version of Bautista was so much more dominating, exciting to watch, and just simply so much better than the guy who hit 54 home runs in 2010; who cares if the home run numbers going forward are slightly less spectacular?

But even with the best of players, there are concerns. There is this idea of a post-break swoon from Bautista that saw him hit just .257 after the all-star break, dropping his overall season BA to .302. Of course, he still put up a .896 OPS during those “down months” where his BB rate nudged up to over 21%, so I can’t exactly say it was a major concern. Batting averages can be a fickle thing, and while Bautista’s .309 BABIP in 2011 is a significant career high for him, consider also that it is the 2nd lowest among the top 20 MLB batting leaders. Frankly, if the absolute worst Jose Bautista we saw in 2011 (.835 OPS June) was a top-40 player in the league, I’m just not all that worried.

The fact is, over the last 2 seasons, only Miguel Cabrera posted a better average OPS than Jose Bautista. Considering that Cabrera is probably the best hitter in the game, period, I think that’s pretty damned good that we’ve got a guy who has shown more power, draws more walks, and doesn’t cost $19 million a year.

Now, the hardest part about all this is how do you go about forecasting Bautista going forward? He exceeded all expectations in 2011; can we expect him to do the same in 2012? Not taking anything away from Bautista’s accomplishments, but I do think that he’s more or less hit a peak in 2011. Multiple 8+ WAR seasons isn’t really something that players are likely to do unless your name is Albert Pujols; and while I think Bautista will still perform at an elite level, there is still a fair degree of fluctuation from year-to-year among elite players, whether you’re Matt Kemp, Joey Votto, Ryan Braun, or Jose Bautista.

With that said, I still think Jose will easily be the best player on the 2012 Blue Jays:

650 PA, .295/.415/.595, 40 HR, 11 SB

The main thing that I think we’ll see a slight drop is the batting average. With the new approach, Bautista still hit .260 despite a career-low .233 BABIP in 2010, while hitting .302 with a career-high last year .309 BABIP. Assuming the luck factor normalizes things to his career profile of .280 or so, I would guess his BA will settle comfortably in the .290 range. He’ll like draw just as many walks as last season with a continued spike in IBBs, and hopefully break the 10 SB mark for the first time in his career. Bautista attempted more stolen bases in 2011 than any of his previous seasons, and without a legit cleanup hitter behind him, I think he’ll be given a good number of chances to run this year as well.

Home run numbers aren’t the biggest deal to me here – I think he’s got the power to hit 40+, but I’d be perfectly happy with 35. The American League might have added Prince and Albert this off-season, but I think Bautista will be up there, if not leading, in the home run column at the end of the season. In all, I’ve got Bautista posting a 2nd straight 1.000+ OPS season; it’d be an unlikely accomplishment for even the best of MLB players, to say the least, but Jose Bautista has made the past two seasons of his career all about breaking through with unlikely accomplishments. I’m not about to second-guess him again.

Your comments on the matter are welcomed, as always. Does anyone think the 2012 Jose Bautista will be even better than the 2011 version? On the contrary, anyone think he’s due for a significant drop in performance?

Next: the pitching staff!

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Previous 2012 Blue Jays forecasts:

Part 1: J.P. Arencibia - 510 PA, .255/.315/.450, 26 HR
Part 2: Adam Lind – 600 PA, .260/.320/.445, 26 HR
Part 3: Kelly Johnson – 580 PA, .270/.350/.430, 16 HR, 11 SB
Part 4: Brett Lawrie – 610 PA, .280/.340/.490, 20 HR, 22 SB
Part 5: Yunel Escobar – 605 PA, .285/.365/.405, 10 HR, 5 SB
Part 6: Edwin Encarnacion – 580PA, .270/.330/.465, 23 HR, 6 SB
Part 7: Eric Thames – 300 PA, .270/.315/.455, 8 HR, 3 SB
Part 8: Travis Snider – 300 PA, .265/.315/.450, 9 HR, 5 SB
Part 9: Colby Rasmus – 590 PA, .260/.325/.445, 19 HR, 14 SB

It’s easy to understand the enthusiasm that came with last July’s acquisition of Colby Rasmus. It’d been the type of trade that had, more or less, defined the methodology of the Anthopoulos era: one of identifying low-cost opportunities to acquire high-ceiling assets at premium positions. Considering that at the beginning of the season, the very idea of the Blue Jays acquiring Rasmus would have been scoffed at as an unfathomable pipe dream, that the team was able to get him for (basically) Frasor, Dotel, Zach Stewart, Marc Rzepsczynski, and Corey-freaking-Patterson was truly a remarkable move.

At the same time, it also demonstrated just how far, and how quickly the then-24 year old’s 5-tool stock had fallen, at least in the eyes of the St. Louis Cardinals. It’s not entirely unwarranted either: after a strong .290/.374/.450 start to the 2011 season that had him poised to be a top CF in the league (top 4 OPS in the month of April), Rasmus’ production dropped steadily over the next 3 months: .777 OPS in May, .684 in June, and an outright ugly .544 in July. By the time he was traded to the Blue Jays amidst stories of clashes with Tony La Russa about his work ethics (and an overbearing father at odds with the organization), Rasmus was an erratic player who’d occasionally displayed his skills, but more often created outs at the plate and couldn’t draw walks (7.8% in July). For a team still looking to keep up in the playoff race, it’s understandable why the Cardinals made the move they did (and in all fairness, the bullpen pieces did contribute to their World Series run).

So Rasmus got himself a change of scenery to Toronto, where he was immediately anointed the center-fielder of the future. The results of his first go in the AL, however, didn’t exactly do much buoy confidence in Rasmus’ potential with the Blue Jays. After a show start that didn’t get him register a hit in the first 3 games, Rasmus managed to put together a .698 OPS in August, thanks to a slight resurgence in his power (.208 ISO). The walk rate, however, continued to plummet, as the outfielder drew just 2 free trips to 1st base over 75 PA (2.7%); although he’d fared better than his previous two months with a .236 batting average…well, I think you get the idea. Worse, any idea that Rasmus was making baby steps towards a strong finish to the season was derailed by a wrist injury late in the month, and by the time he came back in September, Rasmus managed to just eek out a measly .283 OPS over the last 12 games, limping out of a season that he’d probably rather forget.

Yet, despite the erratic play, and the shoddy results, the forecast going into 2012 for Rasmus remains positive. Personally, I would give Rasmus a full mulligan on his ineffectual .517 OPS with the Blue Jays in 2011 and call it an adjustment period marred by injury. 140 PA doesn’t really provide much of a sample size, and I’m not going to lower expectations on Rasmus based on that. Even if you don’t write off his time with Toronto, it’s not like Rasmus is a total unknown quantity either: coming into the 2009 season as a top-5 prospect in baseball, Rasmus managed a 2.8 WAR rookie season, something that he topped with a 20-10, 4.3 WAR 2010 at just age-23. Even with all of his struggles in St. Louis last year, Rasmus was still a .753 OPS player on pace for 15 home runs – on what you’d call a down year.

Of course, there are certain issues that have to be worked out in his approach to the plate, as evidenced by his rock bottom 0.13 BB/K in the AL thus far. But, given his previous profile, there’s nothing to suggest that it’ll remain there; if anything, his time in St. Louis in 2011 demonstrates that he was making improvements in that area. While it’s alarming that Rasmus posted a 15.5% infield fly rate in 2011; it’s worth noting that the number is near triple the rate over his previous 1000+ PA, a somewhat unlikely given his relatively normal GB/FB ratio, even if you discount the high .354 BABIP that fueled his 2010 season.

In short, there were a number of things that didn’t seem quite right with Rasmus in 2011, but they seem like aberrations to the norm, rather than a continuous trend. He still showed decent power in Toronto until the wrist injury, and was a plus defender for the Blue Jays. He is a better option at CF than what we had (and currently have), and even if he won’t hit that touted 25-20 potential in 2012, I imagine we’ll see a strong bounce-back season from the 25-year old Rasmus, who will be given every opportunity to succeed this year.

With that said, here’s how successful I think Rasmus will be in 2012:

590 PA, .260/.325/.445, 19 HR, 14 SB

Maybe I’m being a little too deliberate with the numbers here in suggesting that Rasmus can push 20-15 for the first time in his career, but I don’t really see a reason why it couldn’t happen. Rasmus hit 14 home runs in a down year last season cut by injury, so I actually think 20+ homers is pretty achievable for him, with the power he’s shown so far. If anything, the SB numbers is more of a push, as he’s only stolen 12 at most in a season. Obviously, it’ll depend on how much the team will want to use his speed on the basepaths, and given that Aaron Hill, Travis Snider and Jose Bautista all hit career highs in stolen base attempts with John Farrell last season, I imagine Rasmus will be give his fair shot to do the same in 2012.

Has Rasmus’ time with the Blue Jays put a damper on your expectations of his future performance? Does anyone think he’s bound for a repeat of 2010 – or better? As always, your thoughts and comments are appreciated.

———————————————

Previous 2012 Blue Jays forecasts:

Part 1: J.P. Arencibia - 510 PA, .255/.315/.450, 26 HR
Part 2: Adam Lind – 600 PA, .260/.320/.445, 26 HR
Part 3: Kelly Johnson – 580 PA, .270/.350/.430, 16 HR, 11 SB
Part 4: Brett Lawrie – 610 PA, .280/.340/.490, 20 HR, 22 SB
Part 5: Yunel Escobar – 605 PA, .285/.365/.405, 10 HR, 5 SB
Part 6: Edwin Encarnacion – 580PA, .270/.330/.465, 23 HR, 6 SB
Part 7: Eric Thames – 300 PA, .270/.315/.455, 8 HR, 3 SB
Part 8: Travis Snider – 300 PA, .265/.315/.450, 9 HR, 5 SB

If Eric Thames’ 2011 season was about getting the opportunity and running with it, I suppose it’s only fair to say that Travis Snider’s season was about dropping the ball and failing to find it afterwards. 2011 was supposed to be different for Snider, after a 2010 season that was sidelined by injury. There was a new manager in town, and the team was committed to let him man left field coming out of spring training. Yet, just 25 games into another slow start, the Blue Jays had decided that it wouldn’t be in the best interest of the team and player to let Snider keep his roster spot, after all.

In all fairness, it’s not as though Snider had given the Blue Jays much of a reason to keep him there to begin with. Eric Thames was tearing up AAA to start the season, while Snider was mired in a .184/.276/.264 slump that had him looking totally lost at the plate. Even in a 5-game hitting streak (all singles), the team saw something alarming in his approach, and so Snider was exiled to AAA to work on fixing his mechanics. At the time of the move, I felt fairly strongly that it was unfair to Snider that the team had decided to once again yo-yo him back and forth, never really allowing Snider much time to settle into a rhythm. He was having a slow start, sure, but it’s not like we haven’t seen it before. Travis came out of the gate the same way in the previous season: entering May 1, 2010, he was posting an abysmal .149 average with a .592 OPS. Things changed quickly, however, and by May 14th, Snider had brought his average up to .241, with a .804 OPS.

It was then that he was sidelined by a strained wrist, effectively cutting his season until July. Snider wound up finishing ’10 with a bang, hitting .387/.452 over his last 7 games with 4 homers, so it’s not like his year was totally lacking in positives, even if I’d probably call it was somewhat of a lost season. The important thing was that we got a glimpse of what he could do then, and that’s in part what was upsetting about his demotion in 2011, slow start be damned.

Nonetheless, Snider went back to AAA Las Vegas, terrorized the league (although with a few minor struggles) over 277 PA as he’d done before, and was declared fixed and ready to return by the middle of summer. No problem, right? You wouldn’t think so after the first 9 games upon Snider’s return in July, where he’d hit .421 with 8 doubles in that span. He’d brought his OPS up to .719 from .540, too; but just as we thought we’d begun to see Snider make the development that he was seemingly ready to make back in ’10, all of a sudden, the power disappeared. Snider hit just 2 doubles and one home run over the last 15 games, hitting a miserable .161 in that span without drawing a single walk. Just 11 games after his 2nd demotion of the 2011 season, his season was declared over with tendinitis  in his wrist.

So you can look at Snider’s age 22 and 23 seasons in a couple of ways. One, you could say he had 521 PA and didn’t do much with it. In fact, it wouldn’t be hard to make the case that Snider has been a bust at the MLB level so far. If you look at it that way, it’s not hard at all to see why Alex Anthopoulos thinks that Thames has a “leg up” on Snider for the job – let Snider start in AAA, give Thames the job, and see how things pan out.

On the flip side, you could also get selective with the dates of his successes, look at his slow starts and wrist injuries, and say that he’s never been given an extended look. Here are the facts: Snider posted .748 and .767 OPS seasons as a 21 and 22 year old. He’s still only 23, over a year younger than Eric Thames, whose .769 OPS in his age-24 2011 was accumulated over 393 PA – more looks than Snider had ever been given in any of his seasons thus far. Neither hits lefties, and neither draw very many walks, but Snider is rated a plus defender in left with an average arm. The big knock against Snider is that he strikes out a whole lot more, but until this season, he has always shown good home run power – not just good doubles power, but the head-turning, upper deck power that had him rated the a top-10 prospect in the big leagues back by just a few years ago…when he was 20 years old.

So maybe there’s a good reason for the competition after all. The most important of which, as I mentioned in the Eric Thame piece, is the upside factor: Thames might wind up being pretty good, but Snider has the potential to be great. No, potential doesn’t really do much for your team until it’s realized, but I count myself on the high-upside…side of the coin on this one. Travis Snider has been around for so long, that it’s sometimes easy to forget just how young he is, and how sometimes top prospects really seem to need some time to struggle and work things out. Snider wouldn’t be the only former-top prospect in the outfield needing a chance to prove himself either – and with the team not quite ready to be competing for a playoff spot, I just don’t see why you wouldn’t go with the higher-ceiling guy and at least really see if he’d sink or swim.

Then again, I’ve always been a Snider believer/apologist, so I’m pretty biased on the matter. I’m often reminded of Cameron Maybin when I talk about Snider; similarly rushed to the majors at a very young age, Maybin was a “bust” for years, never receiving more than 322PA in each of his first 4 years. It took him getting traded twice before he found a Padres with nothing to lose who was willing to let him play, and while he struggled early on, Maybin wound up putting together a 9 HR, 40 SB season worth 4.7 WAR – and he did it at just age 24. I’m not exactly saying that Snider is about to get there, but I don’t think he’ll be given the same playing time and opportunity that the Padres afforded Maybin either. Different team, different goals.

This is getting too long, isn’t it? Here’s what I think Snider is capable of in about half a season’s worth of work:

300 PA, .265/.315/.450, 9 HR, 5 SB

Not unlike Thames, I think Snider can be solid, if not spectacular if given the playing time; a 20-10 full season isn’t totally out of the question, given his career pace so far. The main questions are a) if he can ever get off to a good start? and b) if the Blue Jays will keep him there even with a slow start? Spring training will certainly tell us a lot about what both players have been up to, but going into it, I think Snider is going to have to have a monster spring to earn this job.

To be honest, I think that while Snider will fulfill his potential one of these years, but I don’t think he’ll do it with the Blue Jays. It doesn’t sound like Alex Anthopoulos has same the conviction when talking about Snider, the same way he has confidence in the other young guys like Rasmus, Alvarez, etc. The team has said Snider is a big part of the future, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him moved for a starter at some point.

So, who does everyone like in left field? Are you on Team Thames, or Team Snider? Should the team move one of them? I’d love to hear some of your comments on this one.

———————————————

Previous 2012 Blue Jays forecasts:

Part 1: J.P. Arencibia - 510 PA, .255/.315/.450, 26 HR
Part 2: Adam Lind – 600 PA, .260/.320/.445, 26 HR
Part 3: Kelly Johnson – 580 PA, .270/.350/.430, 16 HR, 11 SB
Part 4: Brett Lawrie – 610 PA, .280/.340/.490, 20 HR, 22 SB
Part 5: Yunel Escobar – 605 PA, .285/.365/.405, 10 HR, 5 SB
Part 6: Edwin Encarnacion – 580PA, .270/.330/.465, 23 HR, 6 SB
Part 7: Eric Thames – 300 PA, .270/.315/.455, 8 HR, 3 SB

This will mark the first time that the baseball game series will have a separate cover athlete for the Canadian edition, and Bautista certainly deserves the recognition since, you know, he was the best hitter in the big leagues in 2011 and all. Congratulations to Bautista are in order; here’s hoping that a series of commercials with Kevin Butler is to come.

Here’s the full cover art for the game, coming out on March 6th, in all its glory:

Given everything that was supposed to happen in an ideal scenario in 2011, it’s a bit of a surprise that we’re here talking about Eric Thames potentially being the starting left fielder in 2012. Not only that, but Thames heads into spring training as the candidate with the “leg up” in the competition between he and Travis Snider, the long thought to be bluebirds left-fielder-and-middle-of-the-order-bat of the future. Make no mistake here: Thame’s rapid rise to the big leagues was one borne out of Snider’s failures to (so far) fulfill his potential, but to Thame’s credit, he’s taken the opportunity and run with it.

For a player who missed nearly a couple of seasons with injuries, and who started 2010 in rookie ball, that’s no small accomplishment. Thames ranked just outside of the top 11 on Baseball Prospectus’ look at Blue Jays prospects headed into 2011, but that only goes to show how quickly things can change, especially in a deep farm system. It wasn’t all smooth sailing for the then-24-year old, however: Thames’ initial stint with the Blue Jays last season lasted just 13 games before he was sent back down to AAA to make room for Adam Lind, leaving a unimpressive .631 OPS mark in the process. Even with how Thames had dominated AA in 2010, and how he’d tore the cover off the ball in AAA kicking off 2011, maybe he wasn’t quite ready after all?

Just under a month after he was sent down, Thames was given a 2nd chance to answer that question, and this time, he ran with it for the rest of the season: showing a swing-first aggressiveness at the plate that let his gap power do the talking, Thames came back in June with a roar, hitting .370 and posting a ridiculous .741 slugging percentage over final 5 games of the month. Sure, it was a very small sample size, and he didn’t draw a single walk while striking out an unsustainable 33% of the time…but it was a statement that you couldn’t ignore from Thames, flaws and all.

Thames’s performance for the rest of year normalized, and while the flaws remained largely the same, the results were solid: a .791 OPS in July, followed by an even better .811 in August, with 8 home runs and 15 doubles between the two. The rookie’s strength faded significantly after that, ending the season with a .651 OBP in September; but 2011 being just his 2nd season in pro ball with 600+ PA, I think it’d be reasonable to give him a mulligan on the month. Overall, Thames posted a .262/.313/.456 line in his rookie season – not spectacular by any means, but solid enough to be head-turning. More importantly, it’d been better than what Travis Snider had done since he was rushed to the bigs at just 20 years old.

So what of Thames in 2012? Personally, I think the team ought to run with Snider for the upside, but that’s to be decided in spring training. There’s also good chance that the players will split time this season, or one of them could be moved at some point…the point is, left field is in a position in flux for the 2012 Blue Jays, and I’m not about to project the amount of playing time that either player will have. Do I think Thames could end up being a decent corner outfielder? Sure. But, his game comes with significant weaknesses. For one, his defense is well below average in the outfield (-15.9 UZR/150), with a throwing arm that is suspect at best (although, there has been some buzz made about his renewed focus on arm strength training this off-season, so I’m very open to that fact that it could change). Thames also doesn’t hit lefties at all (.209/.242/.395), and his batting eye (0.26 BB/K) is less than desirable. Finally, Thames is an aggressive, plus fastball hitter, but below average against breaking pitches – adjustments that he’ll have to make as pitchers adjust next season.

With all that said, there are certainly things to like here. Thames has good gap power, and doesn’t often swing to hit fly balls (1.08 GB/FB). Combined with a healthy line-drive rate of 22.7%, it means that he’s likely to continue being on the right side of the BABIP game when it comes to his batting average. He hit more triples than Jose Bautista in 2011, while being tied for 2nd on the team in doubles with 24 – pretty impressive stuff, especially when considering Thames had just 394 PA with the team in 2011.

Because of the unknown playing time factor around Thames, I’ll limit my forecast for him to about a half season’s worth of work:

300 PA, .270/.315/.455, 8 HR, 3 SB

What isn’t noted here are the doubles, which I think he’ll hit a lot of (40+ over a full year isn’t out of the question). If he winds up playing the full season, I think the HR and SB numbers can basically be extrapolated to just around 600 PA. Like I said, solid, if not spectacular. The questions around his defense will continue until he answers them, and there’s still the upside factor too – just how good can Thames become?

This is likely to be a hot topic going into spring training, so your thoughts and comments are appreciated, as always. Tomorrow, I’ll make the case for the other kid competing for a spot in left field.

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Previous 2012 Blue Jays forecasts:

Part 1: J.P. Arencibia - 510 PA, .255/.315/.450, 26 HR
Part 2: Adam Lind – 600 PA, .260/.320/.445, 26 HR
Part 3: Kelly Johnson – 580 PA, .270/.350/.430, 16 HR, 11 SB
Part 4: Brett Lawrie – 610 PA, .280/.340/.490, 20 HR, 22 SB
Part 5: Yunel Escobar – 605 PA, .285/.365/.405, 10 HR, 5 SB
Part 6: Edwin Encarnacion – 580PA, .270/.330/.465, 23 HR, 6 SB

An aside, if I may: although nowhere near as wordy as the forecasts I’m doing currently, what predictions I made about last year’s Blue Jays roster turned out to be somewhat inaccurate almost completely, totally dead wrong. Snider having a break-out season? Nope. Hill, Lind having bounce back seasons? Try again. How about J-Bau coming down to earth? Not even close. Edwin Encarnacion though, helped me salvage things little bit; not because I had closely predicted the numbers that he ended up producing, but because I was set on this: as long as Edwin Encarnacion doesn’t play on the field, the guy can, and will hit.

That, in a nutshell, describes how Encarnacion’s season was lost and found in 2011. First, the obvious stuff: Encarnacion can’t play defense. He’s a well-below average defender at 1st, and at 3rd…well, you know the story by now. So when the Blue Jays made the surprise the decision to put Encarnacion at 3rd to start 2011, boasting about how he was in better shape and how he’d re-dedicated himself to the defensive game, most of us knew the team was flirting with disaster there. Sure enough, the errors and jeers piled up right from the get go, and the pressure on Encarnacion to make routine plays seemingly made him respond despondently. It was E5, but posting the worst defensive stats in his career – an .892 fielding percentage, and a staggering -37.0 UZR/150 – to start the season. Sure, defensive metrics aren’t perfect, but Edwin’s play was abysmal.

Worst yet, it was clearly affecting his approach and performance at the plate. Encarnacion has always had decent power (career .193 ISO), but you wouldn’t know it over the first two months of 2011. In April and May, E5 was unable to hit for either average (.246) or power (1HR, .102 ISO), nor was he able to draw walks (2.6%) or get on base (.274). In other words, Encarnacion was basically a total loss both offensively and defensively, and was just waiting to be DFA’d.

Yet, 36 games and 273 innings later, it was over. Not E5′s career as a Blue Jay, of course, but his time in baseball abyss. The catalyst? Taking the glove away, and letting him focus on hitting. It was something the Reds couldn’t afford to do while Encarnacion in the NL, but a sensible move for the bluebirds to make. The effect was immediate: Encarnacion bumped his OPS by over 200 points in June (.846), and carried the confidence into a better July (.909). By August, the guy was running just behind Bautista as the best hitter on the team, with a .961 OPS and 6 home runs for the month, drawing nearly 4 times as many walks as he did over the first two months of the season. I could go on and try to continue the narrative, but the numbers seem to do it so much better: Edwin Encarnacion, the DH, posted a triple slash of .296/.361/.494, while E5 the 3rd baseman managed .213/.287/.385. The revival of E5 was complete.

Encarnacion even carried his strong plate performance with him when the Blue Jays called on him to play a little first base. Though still a poor defender, Encarnacion’s bat stayed strong, posting a .305/.337/.463 over 25 games. I’d point out the performance dip here compared to when he was DH, but with only a small-ish 25 game sample size, I think it’d be reasonable to let it slide.

So now here’s the thing. If Encarnacion was that great over 70 games as DH last season, how good will he be as a full-time DH (and maybe the odd game at 1st) at twice that number? I can’t imagine he’ll rake quite the same way he did last summer, with his high-BA months of July and August having been boosted by well-above career norm BABIPs (.361 and .321 respectively, vs the career average of .282). That being said, Edwin’s power will probably remain close to .200 in 2012, and should Farrell not pull something crazy and put Encarnacion in the outfield or something, it should yield some pretty good offensive numbers.

Here is what I’m thinking Encarnacion can do without the glove next season:

580PA, .270/.330/.465, 23 HR, 6 SB

I’ve said some of not very kind things about Encarnacion in the past, even though I do think that he could be a decent bat, as long as that’s all he does on the field. That will obviously diminish some of his value as a player to the team; but with some luck, I’m hopeful that Edwin can push a .800 OPS season, and be enough of a power threat (with a handful of steals) that could perhaps see him move up in the batting order a bit in 2012. He might not be a long term piece for the Blue Jays, but until they’ve tried him full time at DH, I don’t think we’ve seen the best of E5 yet.

You comments are appreciated, as always. Anyone out there think Edwin gets more than a few looks at 1st in 2012? What do you think of a potential lefty/righty platoon with Lind?

Next: the outfield!

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Previous 2012 Blue Jays forecasts:

Part 1: J.P. Arencibia - 510 PA, .255/.315/.450, 26 HR
Part 2: Adam Lind – 600 PA, .260/.320/.445, 26 HR
Part 3: Kelly Johnson – 580 PA, .270/.350/.430, 16 HR, 11 SB
Part 4: Brett Lawrie – 610 PA, .280/.340/.490, 20 HR, 22 SB
Part 5: Yunel Escobar – 605 PA, .285/.365/.405, 10 HR, 5 SB

Boy, the folks in Atlanta sure like to cut their infielders loose at opportune times. Yunel Escobar shares a few things in common with his co-middle infielder on the Blue Jays, having both been developed on the same Braves squad, and both cut loose at the prime age of 27. But here they are, having found their way to the Blue Jays after a couple of well-timed trades by GM Alex Anthopoulos. When the team first acquired Escobar for an expendable Alex Gonzalez, we were supposedly getting a shortstop who had suddenly lost all of his gap power after a career-best 2009 in which he posted a 4.4 WAR. It was almost surprising that the Braves would give up on what had seemed like a burgeoning star after just half a season of struggles, with questions abound about the Cuban’s work ethics and stories of mental lapses. But, the Braves were in the playoff race, in need of a producing shortstop; I suppose when you’re in that situation, you’re more likely to make short-term value moves.

Whatever their reasoning was, the Blue Jays reaped the long-term benefits. In fact, Escobar immediately began turning a corner as soon as he arrived, hitting a grand slam in his 3rd game with the team, and going on to hit .275/.340 for the final 266 PA of the season. The lack of any real power was still a concern, but it was a sign of things to come.

By the time the 2011 season had started, Yunel was back in in a big way, hitting .300/.440 over the first two months, with a surprising 7 homers and an .820+ OPS that had many of us wondering “did we get a guy on the verge of a power breakout?” Unfortunately, the short answer is no. Escobar’s power surge normalized, and while he did show some gap power, the home runs essentially stopped in the 2nd half of the season as his slugging percentage took a 65 point drop to .373. Still, what we got was a vintage Yunel Escobar season – a contact hitter with doubles power who could draw walks and get on base, while playing above average defense at short. Is his game complete? Not quite. Escobar’s biggest flaw is that he lacks the speed that’s typical of players in his position; he just flat out doesn’t have the base-stealing ability that many of his peers do, and because he’s also not exactly a power hitter, batting him at the top of the order can be a little bit awkward.

Still, with a pair of 4+ WAR seasons over the last 3 years, even if Escobar remained peaked at this level, that’s good enough for top 10 in the league. It certainly makes him a valuable commodity at the $10 million extension he signed for the next 2 seasons. The 14 home runs he hit in 2009 probably represents a peak, though I’m hopeful that Escobar’s notable home/away split in 2011 (.896 OPS at Rogers Centre, .670 everywhere else) will lead to more consistent numbers from him this season, with a full season against AL opponents under his belt.

And that’s the key word, I think: consistent. If there’s one thing that I think that Yunel Escobar brings to the table in 2012, it’s that his core skills won’t like deviate too much from what we’ve seen. Even during his 75-game slump with the Braves, Escobar maintained a good batting eye, striking out just 10.3% of the time and drawing walks at over 12%. He’s maintained a high 85%+ contact rate over the course of his career, and keeps the ball on the ground (3-season increase in GB/FB ratio), with enough power to turn batted balls into a fair amount of doubles. If there’s a rally going on where you don’t want a player to make an out, Yunel might be the best guy on the team to call on outside of Bautista. I think it said a lot about what the Blue Jays coaches think of  Escobar skills, that the team batted him in the leadoff spot for much of 2011 despite his lack of a running game.

Will he be there again this season? That’s a little harder to say. The team has more options now, and a 1/2 of consisting of Escobar, Rasmus and KJ seems likely. I’m thinking the team will opt for having more speed up at the very top, and you could probably make the argument that Yunel would be best used hitting in 5th as well. But that’s a discussion for another day, I think.

With all that said, it should be little surprise that I think Escobar’s performance in 2011 won’t stray far from his norm:

605 PA, .285/.365/.405, 10 HR, 5 SB

Maybe the least amount of thinking I’ve had to do in coming up with one of these yet. Yunel isn’t spectacular in any fashion, but solid in most aspects. Plus, going into his age-29 season, there’s certainly room for him to improve. Shortstop is not exactly a deep well for impact offensive talent, but I believe Escobar will remain a top 10 asset in for the Blue Jays in the position in 2012. It’s a hell lot better than Alex Gonzalez’s .642 OPS season, that’s for sure.

As always, comments are welcomed and appreciated. Where does everyone think the team ought to bat YEscobar in 2012?

———————————————-

Previous 2012 Blue Jays forecasts:

Part 1: J.P. Arencibia - 510 PA, .255/.315/.450, 26 HR
Part 2: Adam Lind – 600 PA, .260/.320/.445, 26 HR
Part 3: Kelly Johnson – 580 PA, .270/.350/.430, 16 HR, 11 SB
Part 4: Brett Lawrie – 610 PA, .280/.340/.490, 20 HR, 22 SB

I’ve been looking forward to the challenge of doing a piece like this on Brett Lawrie for some time because, in some ways, there’s nothing I can say about the 22-year old’s future performance that I’d feel “right” about. After all, I’d been totally wrong with my assessment of the Blue Jays’ 3rd baseman of-the-future thus far. “Rushed,” I said, when the possibility of Lawrie joining the big club much earlier than expected first came up. “He’s not close to being ready, not with barely over 300PA above AA.” Remember how we were still trying to get over how Snider was similarly rushed to the majors? Well, with just 69 games at the AAA level, Lawrie didn’t take very long in 2011 to force his way onto the major leagues, making his much-ballyhooed (and broken-hand delayed) debut in August, subsequently forcing doubters like myself eat my words with an out of the world .293/.373/.580 line, with 9 home runs over 171 PA.

Yet, headed into the 2012 season, I find myself more of a skeptic than a believer again. Lawrie can’t possibly sustain his level of production this season…can he? There’s a believer in me who is excited about the possibility of Lawrie shutting up the skeptics for good with a season that would put him among the very best at the hot corner, but that feels a little uncomfortable to say, doesn’t it? The kid is just 22-years old. He’s still learning to play defense at 3rd, instead of relying on his raw athleticism to make plays. He just got here. How in the world could he possibly put up a .950+ OPS over a full season?

Well, the answer is pretty simple – he won’t. It’s unlikely for any player to put up those kinds of numbers in any given season, and while Lawrie can clearly be very good, I don’t think he’s there…yet. The biggest fear, I think, is that Lawrie will bust or flame out. The game has taught us to think that it’s designed to facilitate busts. Think Eric Hinske, or more recently, Gordon Beckham (not quite there, but close). Even Travis Snider, who is just a year older than Lawrie, is that close to the dreaded “bust” label, if only because it feels like he’s been around forever. Players that dominate the game at a very young age simply doesn’t happen very often, even if a number of them do come roaring through the door.

But you know what? Brett Lawrie is the kind of guy that plays with the belief and confidence like he could be one of those players – and he has the natural ability to back up his game. He goes to the plate looking like he belongs, and makes the tough plays work in spite of his inexperience on defense. It’s an all-out kind of game that Brett Lawrie plays, and as a fan, it’s hard not to be drawn in to the energy that he brings to the club, especially when we’d been watching a mix of Mark Teahen, Edwin Encarnacion and Jayson Nix try to fill a black hole of a void all season long.

Did I just talk myself into being a full-on Lawrie believer? Maybe just a little bit. The .287 ISO is going to take the biggest hit in 2012, I think, as will the 17% HR/FB ratio. I’m certainly not ready to predict 31 home runs for Lawrie over 600 PA (his pace in 2011); being an everyday player for 150+ games at this level is a big, tough adjustment to make. Pitchers will be making adjustments to Lawrie’s game this season as well, and one of the biggest questions is how he will answer those. That being said, Lawrie showed an incredibly mature batting eye in his 2-month stint in Toronto, posting a surprisingly good 9.4% walk rate while his strikeout rate nudged just a tick with the adjustment from AAA (16.1%) to the major leagues (18.1%). He also showed good speed, stealing 7 bases in 8 attempts. Furthermore, his BABIP seemed relatively luck-neutral when compared to his minor league career, settling at a comfortable .318. That might wind up coming down a bit in 2012, but it’s just more likely that Lawrie is one of those hitters who is capable of posting a slightly above-average BABIP; it’s like a baseball way of saying “you have to be lucky to be good, but you have to be good to be lucky”.

So how good will Lawrie be in 2012? Well, how about something like this:

610 PA, .280/.340/.490, 20 HR, 22 SB

I’ve been fiddling with the numbers, and the more I look at them, the more I want to bring things down a notch or two…but, let’s just run with it. A .830 OPS season would put Lawrie within the upper end of 6-10 range of 3rd basemen in the big leagues in just his first full season; add a rare 20-20 factor, and he might be knocking at top 5 sooner rather than later. It’s lofty expectations to put on any player, let alone a 22-year old; but if there’s anyone on the Blue Jays whose game is about achieving incredibly lofty goals and expectations, Lawrie is probably it.

As always, thoughts and comments are appreciated. Have I gone too far with this? Does anyone out there think Lawrie will have an even bigger season?

———————————————-

Previous 2012 Blue Jays forecasts:

Part 1: J.P. Arencibia - 510 PA, .255/.315/.450, 26 HR
Part 2: Adam Lind – 600 PA, .260/.320/.445, 26 HR
Part 3: Kelly Johnson – 580 PA, .270/.350/.430, 16 HR, 11 SB

When I first started gathering my thoughts about what 2012 might bring for the Blue Jays, I have to say that I didn’t really envision Kelly Johnson being part of it. A late acquisition by the Blue Jays in a trade that saw two 2nd baseman who had reached the end of the line with their respective teams (the other being Aaron Hill), Johnson was a guy who the Blue Jays could take an extended look at, before he’d inevitably decline arbitration in the off-season and move on to richer pastures, leaving the Blue Jays with a draft pick for their troubles.

But even in a market where Nick Punto wound up with a multi-year contract, Kelly Johnson wound up accepting arbitration, then signing a one-year deal worth 6.38 million dollars, a slight raise to avoid the meeting itself. The amount itself is nothing surprising, if only based on Johnson’s 20-15+ production and positional considerations (even Aaron Hill would end up signing a 2-year, $11 million contract) – if anything, based on Johnson’s 2.2 WAR season, it would make him slightly underpaid.

Regardless of whether it’s a matter of Johnson wanting a one-year deal to boost his value going into 2013 (a year where free agency is lined up to be less dominated by big names), his return to the Blue Jays can be considered, at the very least, a 2nd – and extended – audition. Considering what he showed in 33 games in the AL East, I’m very much looking forward to what a full season of the 29-year old could bring to the table. Now, I am aware of the potential perils of Johnson: his poor 2009 season led to Atlanta giving up on him early, and after a BABIP-fueled (.339), resurgent 2010 where he put up some pretty gaudy numbers and 5.9 WAR, he struggled once again in 2011 with the hack-friendly Arizona system. Like the Braves, the Diamondbacks opted to move him for pieces that they thought would help them in their playoff run.

At the end of the day, though, the overall picture on Johnson has more positives than negatives. He plays above-average defense, has a little bit of both power (career .181 ISO) and speed, and most importantly, he gets on base (career .343 OBP). Does the suddenly spiking strikeout rate the last 2 seasons concern me? A little bit, sure, but considering that it was on a Diamondbacks team where strikeouts were the norm in (tops in the league in 2010, top 10 in 2011), I have to believe that a different offensive approach with a new team could bring that down; that he hasn’t struck out more than 20% until he got to Arizona and his power numbers surged says enough about that to me.

But really, the key part of what I think is expected Johnson’s in 2012, compared to when the Blue Jays had Aaron Hill, is his ability to avoid making outs. You know all those pop-ups? That’s unlikely to happen much with Johnson, who boasts a career 6.2% infield fly ball rate (4.6 % in 2011). He posted a triple slash of .270/.364/.417 in a little over a month with the bluebirds, numbers that I think are closer to his ceiling than his base – in a contract year (some say it doesn’t affect performance, I think it provides incentive), I think he’s more likely reach that than have a repeat of say, 2009 (.224/.303/.389).

Let’s put it this way. If we were talking about fantasy baseball, I’m definitely buying in on Kelly Johnson. I don’t necessarily think he’ll be with the Blue Jays past 2012; but regardless of whether Johnson winds up being traded, or plays the whole year with the team hitting near the top of the order, I think he will outperform the value on his $6.38 million contract and provide more of a complete player than what we’ve had the last 2 seasons, even though I do really think Aaron Hill is due for a rebound year himself. And plus, what other options did we really have, Mike Mccoy?

Here’s a brief summation of what I’m expecting from Johnson in 2012:

580 PA,  .270/.350/.430, 16 HR, 11 SB

I’m placing a fair bit of faith in his walk rate to come back up (as it did, to 12.1% with the Blue Jays), and the strikeout rate to come down. Maybe I’m also being a little conservative with the HR total too, but I think anything over 15-10 from Johnson would just be a bonus at this point, considering that he’ll always hit for better contact and get on base more often. As always, I do enjoy reading what everyone else thinks about these players, so constructive comments are always appreciated.

———————————————-

Previous 2012 Blue Jays forecasts:

Part 1: J.P. Arencibia - 510 PA, .255/.315/.450, 26 HR
Part 2: Adam Lind – 600 PA, .260/.320/.445, 26 HR