Toronto Blue Jays

Olney: Blue Jays A “Sleeping Giant Almost Ready To Wake Up”

Thom Tsang — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 02:19:28 +0000

Ah, there’s nothing quite like a little bit of flattery from ESPN to make you look forward to the upcoming baseball season.

It’s been somewhat of a tumultuous off-season for the Blue Jays front office in terms of how they’ve navigated fan expectations, but Alex Anthopoulos and co. stuck to their guns in building a team capable of sustainable success, and the major media outlets are really starting to take notice of the potential success that is on the way to Toronto. Buster Olney of ESPN published their annual future MLB team power rankings (for ESPN insiders only), with the Blue Jays coming in 6th overall – no small praise, considering the state of the team even just one season ago.

On the future of the franchise, Olney writes “no team will benefit from the extra wild card as much as the Jays. Of course, they could be in position to win the AL East outright very soon”, while suggesting that the team is likely a couple of arms and a big bat away from being a perennial contender. The downside to this story? The Blue Jays are still the 4th ranked AL East team on the list, with the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays all ahead based on current MLB talent, and financial muscle.

To quibble on that though, I think is a bit besides the point. The Blue Jays are a rapidly improving team, with significant talent on the way and very little in terms of financial commitments…but I think most of us would agree that this is a 4th place team going into 2012. I’d say there’s a significant talent gap between the big 3 in the AL East and the bluebirds at the moment (with an even more significant drop to the Orioles – thanks, Peter Angelos!). The point is, the 3 teams ahead of us are essentially on the same level of competition, with any of them being able to win the division on any given year. As a fan, that’s where I’d really like to see the Blue Jays be at at some point over the next year or two – where we can legitimately fight over minor details about the rosters between the Rays, Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays – knowing all of them have essentially the same chance of winning the division. I’d also be cool if the Yankees and Red Sox made some sort of mistake that set the back a few years, but anyhow…

To me, the level of competition marks a big difference between being a 4th place team now, and a 4th place team in 2014. By then, the Blue Jays might well have eliminated the parity gap between us and the best teams in baseball, and a 3rd/4th place finish might be razor-thin in the AL East. As much as I hate the Red Sox, their 3rd place collapse last September was basically the culmination of a bunch of worst-case scenarios – on paper, they could very easily win the division this year. Ditto the Rays, or Yankees. When the MLB adds an extra wild card, this is the most likely division to produce 3 playoff teams in the AL (sorry, AL West).

In a couple of years, hopefully we’ll be able to add the Blue Jays to that list among the juggernauts in the league. For now, I’m okay with this sleeping giant lurking just a little while longer.

Blue Jays Avoid Arbitration With Casey Janssen, Agree To 2-Year Deal

Thom Tsang — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 21:10:31 +0000

It took a little while longer than expected, but with spring training only days away for the Blue Jays, the team has finally come to terms with reliever Casey Janssen, signing the 30 year old to a two-year deal with a one year option. Janssen actually broke the news of the deal himself via Twitter earlier today; financial terms haven’t been released yet, it will keep the Blue Jays streak of avoiding arbitration meetings going for yet another year.

Formerly a starter, Janssen is one of the longest tenured members of the current bluebirds roster, and established himself as one of the only reliable relievers in the Blue Jays bullpen in 2011 after several up-and-down seasons marred by injury problems. Janssen’s held batters to a .227 BA last season with an excellent K/BB ratio of 3.79, and is expected to be part of the bridge that leads to the Cordero/Santos 1-2 punch in the late innings in 2012.

Of course, relievers’ roles in the MLB tend to change a fair bit depending on performance, so it’s probably easier just to say that Janssen is looked at as a key member of the revamped Blue Jays bullpen in 2012 after a career-best 2011.

More as the numbers are announced.

The Great Big 2012 Blue Jays Forecast Series, Part 15: Ricky Romero

Thom Tsang — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 16:56:37 +0000

With spring training officially just under a month away, we continue with a series of projections on what the 2012 Toronto Blue Jays might look like. Each day (don’t hold me to this), I will profile a 2012 Blue Jays starter, closing with a set of numbers based on my (usually positive) expectations. We complete our look at the projected starting rotation today with a few words on the Blue Jays ace, Ricky Romero.

There’s not really an easy way to say this, so let me get it out of the way now: Ricky Romero won’t be as good in 2012 as he was in 2011. Well not without a lot of luck, anyway.

Not to take anything away from his first-ever All-Star season, of course. Romero posted some great surface numbers: 15 wins, a 2.92 ERA and 1.14 WHIP puts him among the best in the the American league last season, a remarkable accomplishment considering it was just his 3rd year in the bigs. Ricky is the undisputed ace of the Blue Jays club, and deservedly so. He averaged over 7 innings per start, held his opponents to a measly .214 BA, and give the Blue Jays a chance to win every time he took the mound in 2011.

That being said, the results don’t tell the entire story here. In a Morrow-esque way, but only reverse, Romero’s on-field results aren’t exactly what they seem. The 7.12 K/9 rate is good, but was down from 2011, and the 3.20 BB/9 rate is just a fifth of a batter lower than that of Morrows – it’s useful, but not elite. Undoubtedly, the biggest part of Romero’s success was his ability to not give up hits in key situations, and despite a drop in his ability to induce ground balls, he give up significantly less hits this year, from 8.1 H/9 all the way down to 7.0. Ricky’s ability to induce double-plays have always been pretty good, but he ended up with a 18% GIDP rate (a career high) despite inducing less ground balls than his previous 2 seasons – something that helped his strand rate to a MLB top-10 79.2%. Romero’s cutter was slightly improved from 2010, with him throwing it with more consistent horizontal movement and upping the velocity a tick. That could go a long ways to explain just how he ended up that much better in 2011, but the rest of his repertoire didn’t show similar significant progress; to me, his career-low BABIPs (40 point drop from 2010) suggests that Romero’s success was due to both an improved pitch, and likely a symptom of plain luck with batted balls.

Don’t take it as a knock against his skills, though. You have to be good to be lucky, and I’m not saying that Ricky isn’t capable of pitching like a consistent ace in the league – only that he was a little lucky to be an under-3 ERA guy (kind of like Clay Buchholz’s 2.33 ERA 2010). Romero’s stuff is good – great, even – but if you’re only looking at the ERA, I think it’s an inaccurate portrayal of where his skills are at. In short, from a fantasy baseball perspective, he’s probably a little overvalued.

Still, his eye-opening 2011 season came at the most fortuitous moment possible: with the team having traded Shaun Marcum and lacking a #1 pitcher, Ricky stepped up to fill the void after a solid 2010. I could debate how high his ERA should have been compared to his xFIP and all, but there was no arguing that he pitched like the ace of the club. Ricky was, and remains, the only lock in the rotation to pitch 200+ innings, and is by far the most consistent of the Blue Jays pitchers, allowing more than 3 runs in just 6 of his 32 starts. He might not be a Roy Halladay or CC Sabathia yet, but he had the same presence on the mound. Whether that had to do with that fact that he might have been given an extra bit of luck by the baseball gods, who knows.

Better yet, there’s plenty to like about where he could be headed in 2012. Romero changed things up a bit with his arsenal last year, using his fastball significantly more than previous years (60.5% in ’11 vs. 49.3% in ’10) in favour of his slider to set up his change-up (his best pitch). The slider-less approach drew more swings from outside the zone than he’d done, and likely weaker contact off his breaking pitches (evidenced by his declining line-drive rate, from 18.4% to 14.2%). On the other hand, Romero also became more of a fly-ball pitcher in ’11 (and unsurprisingly posted a higher HR/9 than ever), but it’s worth noting that the 1.78 GB/FB rate is still quite healthy, even if there is a 3-year decline in his fly balls ending up in the infield (’09 – 8.5, ’10 – 6.9, ’11 – 5.6). Ideally, Ricky will come into the 2012 season with a more refined cutter that induces weak contact, with better control of the strike zone to maximize the effectiveness of his plus fastball, curve and change.

Really though, even if Romero just came in with the same stuff he had last year, I don’t think any of us would be complaining too much. There are a lot of question marks around the Blue Jays pitching staff in 2012, but I don’t think Ricky Romero is one of them. Whether the ERA is 2.5, 3.00, or 3.50, I don’t think that diminishes what his role is on the ball club, and I think most of us would be comfortable with it.

With all that said, I think Romero’s numbers will be something like this:

220 IP, 3.35 ERA / 1.18 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 3.00 BB/9

Not quite the ERA/WHIP numbers he had in 2011, but I believe that Romero will show continuous improvements in his skill set, consistently eat innings, and keep the Blue Jays in the game each time out. With Alex unable so far to find the right deal for a front line starter to compliment the rotation, Ricky as sure a thing as we’ve got right now; I suspect that will be more than a welcomed element to those of us watching this young rotation in the upcoming year.

What are your thoughts on Ricky? Will his ERA/WHIP be as good as it was last year? Does it make a difference to you? Comment away!

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Previous 2012 Blue Jays forecasts:

Part 1: J.P. Arencibia - 510 PA, .255/.315/.450, 26 HR
Part 2: Adam Lind – 600 PA, .260/.320/.445, 26 HR
Part 3: Kelly Johnson – 580 PA, .270/.350/.430, 16 HR, 11 SB
Part 4: Brett Lawrie – 610 PA, .280/.340/.490, 20 HR, 22 SB
Part 5: Yunel Escobar – 605 PA, .285/.365/.405, 10 HR, 5 SB
Part 6: Edwin Encarnacion – 580PA, .270/.330/.465, 23 HR, 6 SB
Part 7: Eric Thames – 300 PA, .270/.315/.455, 8 HR, 3 SB
Part 8: Travis Snider – 300 PA, .265/.315/.450, 9 HR, 5 SB
Part 9: Colby Rasmus – 590 PA, .260/.325/.445, 19 HR, 14 SB
Part 10: Jose Bautista – 650 PA, .295/.415/.595, 40 HR, 11 SB

Part 11: Henderson Alvarez – 150 IP, 4.25 ERA / 1.28 WHIP, 5.7 K/9, 1.85 BB/9
Part 12: Brett Cecil – 180 IP, 4.40 ERA / 1.35 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, 2.95 BB/9
Part 13: Kyle Drabek – 160 IP, 4.65 ERA / 1.45 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 4.3 BB/9
Part 14: Brandon Morrow – 200 IP, 3.50 ERA / 1.22 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9

The Great Big 2012 Blue Jays Forecast Series, Part 14: Brandon Morrow

Thom Tsang — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 18:48:16 +0000

With spring training officially just under a month away, we continue with a series of projections on what the 2012 Toronto Blue Jays might look like. Each day (don’t hold me to this), I will profile a 2012 Blue Jays starter, closing with a set of numbers based on my (usually positive) expectations. Today, we’ll look at one of the Blue Jays’ latest multi-year signing, right-hander Brandon Morrow.

Another season, another post projecting Brandon Morrow to break out in the MLB. It’s been like that for years for the Blue Jays righty, and despite a largely ineffective 2011, I just can’t really see a reason to stray away from the common belief that Morrow is just one step away from entering the league’s group of elite pitchers.

To do so would be overlooking the 8 starts he made where he allowed 5 or more earned runs, and putting behind two months and 60+ innings worth of 5+ ERA ball, but hear me out here. By most standards we have of evaluating pitchers performances, Morrow was arguably the best he’s ever been. The 4.72/1.29 ERA/WHIP would suggest otherwise, but that’s simply not the whole story on the 27-year old righty. Morrow’s strikeout rate of 10.19 remained elite, just 2nd among starting pitchers in the MLB last season. He also put together a 3.46 BB/9 rate, the 3rd straight year that his walk rate has been in decline and a number that represents a career-best for Morrow across all levels of pro ball. Using a predominately 2-pitch approach, Morrow held his opponents to a .233 batting average, a 3-year best, and his 1.05 HR/9 rate is basically equivalent to Ricky Romero’s.

When you put it all together, and this is a pitcher who’s skills are mostly trending in the right directions. Morrow made 30 starts, pitching over 170 innings for the first time in his career, is an elite strikeout artist with a K/BB ratio that puts him in the top 40 and an opponent’s BAA that puts him alongside Doc Halladay in the top 25 in the MLB. Hell, if you use WAR as an indicator for performance value at all, Morrow was already a more valuable arm (3.4 WAR) than Blue Jays ace, Ricky Romero (2.9) last season.

So the numbers are all good and well, except where it counts – in games. Morrow could never find the results that should have come with numbers like his, with April and June being his best months – 42.1 innings worth of under 4.00 ERA pitching. There were equivalent moments of absolute mastery (Sep 18 vs NYY: 8IP, 4H, 0ER, 1BB, 8K), contrasted against total meltdowns on the mound (Jun 11 vs BOS: 4.1IP, 10H, 9ER, 3BB, 4K); but how do you reconcile the two? At the end of the season, Morrow had more poor starts than good ones, even if he basically did everything right in terms of making improvements. I could have pointed to a high .342 BABIP as being representative of his in 2010, but the number normalized to .299 last season; there is a strange home/away split that saw Morrow perform poorly at the Rogers Centre (6.31/1.50 ERA/WHIP, .275 BAA), while being in elite form away from home (3.07/.1.07/.193), but that’s a polar opposite to the home/away split he posted in 2010, and doesn’t tell us much. We’ve all watched the starts – is Morrow just an erratic pitcher who is either great or terrible in stretches? Is there a number that might explain Morrow’s woes in 2011?

Maybe there is. Morrow’s strand rate was a low 69% in 2010, and it dipped further yet in 2011. The righty’s 65.5% strand rate last season is one of the lowest in the MLB last season, and the worst in his career, despite an excellent strikeout rate. Perhaps there’s something that changes about Morrow’s game with men on base? Fangraphs’ Steve Slowinski posted an excellent discussion on this topic in January, pointing out some significant changes in Morrow’s BAA and walk rate in high-leverage situations. There’s also the fact that Morrow’s 179.1 season ended with only 1 GIDP all year. It’s the first time in history (at least since numbers were tracked, as far as I can tell), that a starting pitcher with over 130 IP has induced just a single double-play ball all season. Even if Morrow was more of a fly ball pitcher this year (.87 GB/FB) and allowed more line drives than ever (22.4%), it’s a historic feat of bad luck that out of 141 possible situations, Morrow induced just one double play (good for 0.7%, vs a MLB average of 11%).

Some of this might hint at issues with Morrow’s approach in certain game situations. Maybe it’s a bit of bad luck. Maybe it’s a bit of both, leading to another year that started full of high expectations, but ended mostly in disappointment. That doesn’t mean, however, that those expectations can’t be high again. Morrow has been an enigma so far with the Blue Jays – with stuff that is clearly good enough to be front-line starter, yet never having actually put down a significant stretch of starts that goes in line with the improvements he’s made to his arsenal and control. In 2012, he’ll be relied on by the Blue Jays – yet again – to provide a stabilizing factor in the rotation behind Ricky Romero. Morrow certainly isn’t what I’d call a reliable #2 pitcher at this point, but given everything he’s done over the last 2 years, I think we might see him become just that – if not more – in the upcoming season.

I’m leaning more towards the ideal world scenario here, but if he continues to refine his control, I believe Morrow can put up this type of a season:

200IP, 3.50 ERA/1.22 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9

Maybe it’s too depressing to think otherwise, but I have to believe that at some point, Morrow’s BAA and the improvement in K/BB will eventually translate to on-field results. There are probably some underlying issues in certain game situations, but I’m thinking things will line up eventually. Brandon Morrow has been better than the game results indicated over two years now, and is still improving as he heads into his prime; we haven’t seen the best of him just yet.

Thanks for those who have left comments in the other posts so far; it’s always good to see some other viewpoints. How many out there are still Morrow believers? What do you think his issues have been over the last season? Is he a servicable #2?

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Previous 2012 Blue Jays forecasts:

The Great Big 2012 Blue Jays Forecast Series, Part 13: Kyle Drabek

Thom Tsang — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 15:35:08 +0000

With spring training officially just under a month away, we continue with a series of projections on what the 2012 Toronto Blue Jays might look like. Each day (don’t hold me to this), I will profile a 2012 Blue Jays starter, closing with a set of numbers based on my (usually positive) expectations. We continue to move along the projected rotation today with a look at former top prospect, Kyle Drabek.

I know, I know. Kyle Drabek’s first real shot at the bigs was an unmitigated disaster; why are we even talking about putting him in the projected rotation? There’s certainly an excellent case to be made for why Drabek ought to begin the season in the minors, and have someone up at the big leagues eating the innings instead. That makes sense, and I don’t disagree.

Still, I can’t help but pull for him; and the only real lines of reason I have for it is a) because it’s too early to tell, and b) why not? I mean, if it’s not going to be Drabek at the back of the rotation, who are the Blue Jays going to put there exactly? A mish-mash of guys like Joel Carreno and Luis Perez? Carlos Villanueva might be a good play, but he’s someone who hasn’t thrown more than 115 MLB innings in any of his seasons, and I think he contributes more as a long relief/spot starter type.

Dustin Mcgowan would have to be in the running as well, and despite the fact that I loved his comeback story, this will be a pitcher who threw less than 60 innings across all levels last year, and who will be 30 by April. Even if you give McGowan the mulligan on every inning he threw last year on account that he was working so hard to come back on baby steps, it’s impossible to say that his health is a major question mark now, and going forward as the team builds towards contention. Still, if anyone should be getting a shot to start ’12 in the rotation over Drabek, I think it’d be him.

Back to Drabek, then. He’s thrown at least 150 innings over each of his last 3 seasons, and I would argue that he possesses more upside than anyone else on the team who might be ready to go in there in April. Outside of an excellent opening day game (7IP, 0 ER, 7K, 3BB), the rest of Drabek’s time with the Blue Jays were, more or less, an exercise in frustration. That being said, consider this, the most oft-used of Drabek comps:

Pitcher A, age 23: 67.2 IP, 10.64 ERA, 5.59 BB/9
Pitcher B, age 23: 78.2 IP, 6.06 ERA, 6.29 BB/9

It’s more of a perspective thing than anything else. Pitcher B, of course, is Kyle Drabek, and Pitcher A is the guy who he was traded for, Doc Halladay. I’m not saying they’re similar type of pitchers with the same kind of make-up and trajectory or anything like that (comps are usually not very useful at all, actually), but I just wanted to point out that it’s a little too early to put any kind of career-defining label on Drabek. Maybe if he was headed into his age 26-27 season with a couple of full years on his belt, and he’s still walking more than 6 batters per 9, then you’d have better of a sample size. I doubt his career would even get that far with the bottom-of-the-MLB walk rate, but I’m also counting on the fact that it’s not a performance that is going to be repeated.

Over the first 3 starts of his MLB career (call-up in 2010), Drabek posted a clean 2.65 BB/9. Small sample, of course, but say you take his walk rate over the 162+ IP he had in AA in ’10 (3.78), applied a bit of a spike with the move to MLB and facing much better batters for the first time, I see him walking maybe a bit over 4 batters per 9. Not good, by any means, but not as disastrous as he was last year. If the team gives him the 5th spot to start ’12, Drabek will probably get knocked around a few times, and that probably won’t be too fun to watch, but it’s might just be a necessary evil for him to develop. You can’t learn to pitch to MLB batters unless you’re in the MLB, and I don’t think the Blue Jays have anyone else who would be ready to go with more potential to be an important part of the club in the future.

My biggest concern about Drabek, as with many other fans, concerns his ability to stay cool and bounce back when things weren’t going right. AAA Las Vegas probably wasn’t the most idea place to send him after a series of mound meltdowns, but that Drabek pitched (arguably) worse there doesn’t inspire confidence. On the other hand, I do consider that he was learning to throw a cutter in 2011, and that his best pitch, a filthy curveball that was supposed to be his bread-and-butter, was notably under-used. Might that have made a difference in his ability to generate, for example, swinging strikes? A number of things didn’t seem quite right with the then-23 year old in 2011, and I simply think it probably couldn’t hurt the team give him some time to sink or swim. He won’t be the only player on the team facing that situation, but being “the guy we got back for Doc” seems to put a different lens on things.

Call it hope or whatever you will, but given the starts, I think Drabek can put together numbers like this:

160 IP, 4.65 ERA/1.45 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 4.3 BB/9

Like what I forecast for Cecil, I think Drabek is very capable of outperforming some pretty low expectations. Then again, this whole thing has really been more of an “in defense of…” rather than actually looking at what he’s accomplished. Developing a young staff was never going to be easy or pretty, and on a starting staff that is short on stability and banking on a whole bunch of ideal world scenarios to excel, I’d think it couldn’t really hurt to give Drabek some time to demonstrate what he can do at this level.

If I were a betting man, though, I’d guess that Drabek will start the season in AA. Maybe he gets a shot if/when a hole opens up in the rotation? Anyone else think he might get the first crack to start the season? Who would you like to see instead? Your comments are appreciated.

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Previous 2012 Blue Jays forecasts:

Part 11: Henderson Alvarez – 150 IP, 4.25 ERA / 1.28 WHIP, 5.7 K/9, 1.85 BB/9
Part 12: Brett Cecil – 180 IP, 4.40 ERA / 1.35 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, 2.95 BB/9

The Great Big 2012 Blue Jays Forecast Series, Part 12: Brett Cecil

Thom Tsang — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 19:12:06 +0000

With spring training officially just under a month away, we continue with a series of projections on what the 2012 Toronto Blue Jays might look like. Each day (don’t hold me to this), I will profile a 2012 Blue Jays starter, closing with a set of numbers based on my (usually positive) expectations. We continue to move along the projected rotation today with a look at lefty Brett Cecil.

I tend to lean on the positive side of things when considering what the future might bring for the Blue Jays personnel, but if there’s one player on the team that bucks the trend, it’d be Brett Cecil. So while I’ll try to look on the bright side of things, this particular post in the series isn’t exactly going to be filled with glowing remarks.

You know how sometimes you watch pitchers, and you’re not really sure how they’re getting guys out because their stuff looks (as far as you can tell) sub-par? For me, that’s always been Cecil. I know he’s only 25, always had strikeout stuff in the minors, and development for lefties tend to take slightly longer paths than their right-handed counterparts…but I’ve just never seen any start of Cecil’s where I’ve found his raw ability to be particularly impressive since he came up in 2009. Crafty, control pitchers tend to have that effect on me though, so to be fair, it might very well just be me.

In any case, much hoopla was made about Cecil’s 15-win 2010 season as being a big step in the then-23 year old’s development, with Cecil having cut his walk rate by over 23% from his debut season, all the way down to a clean 2.81 BB/9 over 28 starts. It wasn’t always pretty (6.92/1.96 September), but for a significant stretch of the season, he’d gotten the job done. A large part of that success might have come from Cecil’s increased reliance on a developing change-up, throwing it 23.4% of the time in 2010, a near 65% increase from his previous 90-some innings. The improved pitch gave him a more varied sequence to attack hitters with, and did its part to mask what was otherwise a below-average fastball. While Cecil still wasn’t very good against righties, he’d posted near-elite numbers against lefties (.221 BA, 6.17 K/BB); he was a solid pitcher on the back end of the rotation, and continued improvement in 2011 meant that Cecil could take a larger role.

As we all know by now, what improvements Cecil had expected to make in 2011 ultimately became a step back from the moment he’d mysteriously lost a few ticks from his fastball. Not that it was an overpowering pitch to begin with by any means, but it was still a crucial pitch that he used to set up the off-speed stuff. Cecil tried (unsuccessfully) to learn to pitch around the fact that he couldn’t hit 90 on the radar gun, and his season was derailed after 4 April starts defined by ineffectiveness, being demoted to AAA to find the extra couple of ticks on the fastball. After 12 starts in Vegas that saw him post one complete game shutout mixed between mostly not-great starts, Cecil made his return to the Blue jays at the end of the June, having rediscovered his velocity.

The result was a dud, with Cecil giving up 6 runs on 8 hits over 6+ innings. It was just one start, though; as July rolled around, the lefty turned things around, much as he had in July of 2010. Limiting his opponents to a .231 average and giving up just 0.97 HR/9 over 37 IP, Cecil put up a 2.19/1.14 ERA/WHIP over 5 excellent starts, looking poised to complete his 2011 on a redeeming note. But like his 2010 season Cecil couldn’t hold the momentum through September, with opponents having batted .288 against him over 4 starts and giving up 6 home runs in just 20 IP.

The 5.85/1.45 split to end the year wasn’t exactly a vote of confidence for Cecil, and how you choose to look at the 2012 might bring for him depends on how much you’re willing to overlook that. With late season swoons two years in a row, is there an endurance issue there? Cecil took a 40+ inning jump in workload in 2010, faded in September and came into 2011 with velocity problems. Combined with his time in Las Vegas, last year was the first time in Cecil’s pro career that he’s thrown 200+ innings in a season of pro ball; it’s a big step for sure, but bigger yet will be his ability to remain consistent throughout. Cecil’s fly ball rate is also moving upwards, a 3-year trend settling at an uncomfortable 43.5% last season that caused the HR/9 to spike to 1.60, something that I would expect to come down this year. That Cecil still gives up nearly 9 H/9 is something of an issue even if the home run rate is going to drop, and that his BABIP was at a uncharacteristically-low .267 doesn’t exactly instill confidence. Things were bad for Cecil last season, but his luck with batted balls over July and August suggest things could have be worse yet.

It’s just one way of looking at things, though. As I’ve said before, I’m not much of a Cecil fan, so I’m not exactly holding my breath for a breakout year. That being said, Cecil is not nearly as bad as he was last April, and I think a return to 2010 form season is very possible. At the same time, that’s just the thing, isn’t it? A return to 4.22/1.33 ERA/WHIP form isn’t exactly impressive, but merely serviceable. Unless you see wins as an evaluator (I don’t), Cecil just hasn’t put up head-turning numbers. He’s shown moments of brilliance, but will he be able to string them together through a longer stretch (say, 10 starts) at some point?

But as John Farrell have said, the team will be looking for Cecil to bounce back in 2012 as a key to the team’s success, so barring health issues surfacing in spring training, Cecil will have a rotation spot going into the season. This is how I think he’ll wind up performing:

180 IP, 4.40 ERA / 1.35 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, 2.95 BB/9

Assuming the BABIP normalizes in 2012 for Cecil, he’ll likely wind up giving up more hits than innings pitched, something that didn’t happen last year. I also think unless he can keep the amount of fly balls under control, he’ll wind up giving up his fair share of homer still. To succeed, he’ll have to once again make the change-up an effective pitch, and improve his control. PitchFX suggests that the curve was the only positive-value pitch in Cecil’s arsenal in 2011, so there’s a lot of work to be done.

Admittedly, I think I’ve deliberately set a low bar in my personal expectations as a fan, hoping Cecil can do much better. Does any of you think Cecil can make a big jump from his 2010 season? Is 2011 a total mulligan for the lefty? What do you think of his workload? Your comments are appreciated, as usual.

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Previous 2012 Blue Jays forecasts:

Part 11: Henderson Alvarez – 150 IP, 4.25 ERA / 1.28 WHIP, 5.7 K/9, 1.85 BB/9

The Great Big 2012 Blue Jays Forecast Series, Part 11: Henderson Alvarez

Thom Tsang — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 15:45:44 +0000

With spring training officially just under a month away, we continue with a series of projections on what the 2012 Toronto Blue Jays might look like. Each day (don’t hold me to this), I will profile a 2012 Blue Jays starter, closing with a set of numbers based on my (usually positive) expectations. We move on to the mound today with a look at the youngest member of the projected starting five, Henderson Alvarez.

Headed into the 2011 off-season, Alex Anthopoulos identified holes in both the starting rotation and bullpen – and while he’s rebuilt the latter with a series of moves, the team will go into the 2012 season with the same personnel that they finished 2011 with. Volatility, then, is probably something to be expected from the Blue Jays starting staff in the coming season, as only the #1 and #2 spots are truly set headed into spring, barring an acquisition in the coming days.

On a young staff that’s full of question marks, none is younger than 21-year old righty Henderson Alvarez. Ranked outside of the top 15 among Blue Jays prospects by Baseball Prospectus in 2011, Alvarez’s rapid ascent to the big leagues last season was an unlikely scenario, to put it lightly. He’d always shown season-to-season improvements since he first starting playing pro ball, and scouting reports on his stuff have always been glowing, even if the results haven’t always matched. That being said, this was a 21-year old who threw all of 4 innings during spring training, was sidelined by arm soreness, then started the season in High-A with Dunedin by getting hammered for 2 starts before being promoted to AA with the Fisher Cats. The major leagues were still some ways away.

By late June, however, something was clearly a bit different with Alvarez’s progression curve. We’d started hearing about the velocity on his sinking fastball, and how it’d jumped from the low 90s to a remarkable high-90s, even touching 101 according to Fisher Cats pitching coach Pete Walker. Armed along with a plus-change, Alvarez’s aggressive strike zone approach was finally yielding results that matched his stuff; by July, he was named to the Eastern League all-star game, having held his opponents to a .232 batting average with a 3.25 ERA.

Alvarez only got better from there, going 4-0 over his next 5 starts in New Hempshire, posting a career-high 7.56 K/9 during that stretch while giving up just 8 earned runs over 32.2 IP for a sparkling 2.20 ERA. With the Blue Jays rotation a bit of a patchwork mess by August whose the back end being filled up by Luis Perez and Carlos Villanueva (not to mention a largely ineffective Brett Cecil and Brandon Morrow), the unlikely opportunity was created for Alvarez to come up. After all, we’d tried just about everyone else, from Jo-Jo Reyes to Brad Mills – why not?

Personally, I wasn’t exactly a fan of the move, especially not after the team learned a little bit about the perils of youth with Drabek early in the season. Alvarez was only 21, and had thrown less than 100 innings in AA; bringing him up then seemed like giving a guy an opportunity to get a taste of what it’s like to get hammered in the bigs before an inevitable demotion – and what would be the point in that?

Unlike the line of starting pitchers that the Blue Jays had tried to stabilize the rotation, however, Alvarez more than held his own. There were some expected dips in a few statistical categories, of course: his K/9 dropped to 5.63, and the HR/9 went up to 1.13. Alvarez’s control of the strike zone, however, negated most of the significant damage. Faced with the toughest competition he’d seen thus far, Alvarez actually improved his strike zone control, posting a career-best 1.13 BB/9 over 10 starts with the Blue jays – an impressive display of hit-it-hard-if-you-can poise on the mound for a pitcher his age.

Not that there aren’t question marks surrounding him, of course: Alvarez’s repertoire is still quite raw headed into 2012, relying almost exclusively on his sinker and change-up to generate weak ground balls. He does have a work-in-progress slider which he used about 10% of the time in 2011, but the lack of a true 3rd pitch is definitely a concern, especially after hitters have seen his stuff a few times. As pitch-to-contact types tend to do, Alvarez also gives up a fair number of hits – with a H/9 just on the north side of 9, his 3.53 ERA in 2011 is likely to come up a bit, although it’ll still be heavily BABIP-influcenced (see: Trevor Cahill’s 2010 vs 2011). The lack of true strikeout stuff (6.4 swinging strike %) is something that’s going to test Alvarez’s ability to get out of high-leverage situations, and going to your best pitch 71.8% of the time isn’t exactly a recipe for continued success in that regard.

With that said, it was the impeccable control that got Alvarez to the Blue Jays in 2011, and I think it’s ultimately what’s going to keep him in the rotation to start 2012. If he can replicate even close to his 1.13 BB/9 in 2011 – league best among all pitchers with at least 60 IP – he’ll already be an elite arm in that regard. If getting a hit is the only way a runner is going to get on base against him, things are probably not going to get too far out of hand, even if Alvarez ends up giving up a couple of extra hits. And, of course, there’s the age thing. Alvarez will be entering his age-22 season this year, and we’ll probably see more than a fair share of rough patches as he continues to round out his secondary pitches, and continue to mature from a 2-pitch groundballer to…well, who knows?

Assuming he’ll get the starts, I think Alvarez is capable of being a reasonable 5th starter in 2012 with these numbers:

150 IP, 4.25 ERA / 1.28 WHIP, 5.7 K/9, 1.85 BB/9

It’s hard to really put numbers based on 60 innings of major league ball, knowing that Alvarez will go into 2012 with future developments. That being said, his bread-and-butter pitch will still be the heavy sinker, a pitch that I’m fairly certain AL East hitters will adjust to quite quickly should Alvarez continue to throw it over over 65% of the time – which will in turn affect his willingness to pound the strike zone with it. Pitcher development is a volatile thing, and I wouldn’t call Alvarez anywhere close to a sure thing so early into his career; we do know, however, that he’s at least got enough stuff to get by in the American League over 10 starts last season – how well he can build off that should be interesting to watch in 2012.

I figure there’s probably a pretty wide range of opinions out there on the subject of Blue Jays starting pitching, so your thoughts and comments are welcomed. Personally, I think I’m pretty bear-ish when it comes to young pitchers – anyone have opposite thoughts about Alvarez? Is he already ready to break out in 2012 at just 22? Has he already earned a spot on the 2012 rotation with the 10 starts in ’11?

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Previous 2012 Blue Jays forecasts:

The Great Big 2012 Blue Jays Forecast Series, Part 10: Jose Bautista

Thom Tsang — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 18:34:14 +0000

With spring training officially just under a month away, we continue with a series of projections on what the 2012 Toronto Blue Jays might look like. Each day (don’t hold me to this), I will profile a 2012 Blue Jays starter, closing with a set of numbers based on my (usually positive) expectations. Today, we finish up our look at the on-field lineup with a few words on (arguably) the team’s only star player, right fielder Jose Bautista.

At this point, what else is there to be said about Jose Bautista? Surely, after 2011, even the most ardent members of the regression police would have to accept that maybe this former journeyman is pretty damned good, after all. To be fair here, I didn’t see it coming either: firmly in the skeptics’ camp, I thought Bautista would have a down year after his 54-home run revelation in 2010. How else was I suppose to explain a ISO that was more than double over his previous career rate? That it just happened because he added a leg kick to his mechanics? Power surges like that flies in the face of conventional views on player progression, especially when it’s coming from a 29-year old.

With an extreme fly ball approach, and a line drive rate that was declining as a result, it seemed reasonable to me at the time that as soon as the power normalized, Bautista would just be who he was before – an average hitter (don’t forget, he never hit over .254, and had an OPS over .800 until 2010) with decent power. Whatever Bautista was going to be, I thought “surely, he would not be the home run record-setting monster we saw in 2010.”

In the literal sense, I suppose I was right. Bautista wasn’t that guy, and didn’t hit nearly as many home runs as he did in 2010; instead, he did one better, and became a complete hitter.

If Bautista’s power surge was a surprise to the baseball world, I can’t possibly imagine how his complete transformation into the best hitter in the league could have been forseen by even the biggest Jose Bautista believer. Topping his accomplishments in 2010 in every tangible sense, Bautista set career highs in virtually every statistic you could use to evaluate a hitter, while maintaining a MLB-best .306 ISO (the only player with .300+ ISO power last season). He reduced his overall strikeout rate to a career low 16.9%, and increased his walk rate by a some 38% to a by-far-and-away MLB best 20.2%. By the all-star break, Bautista had a .334/.468/.702 triple slash, and he finished the 8.3 WAR season leading the league with 43 home runs. You might make the argument that the most valuable player isn’t always the best hitter in the game (I had no problem with the Verlander choice), but there’s very little doubt in my mind that there was anyone better with the bat than Jose in 2010.

Yes, the power game normalized, and I think it’s fair to say that even if Bautista leads the league in home runs over the entirety of his contract with the Blue Jays, there’s a good chance we’ll never see 50+ again. That said, the 2011 version of Bautista was so much more dominating, exciting to watch, and just simply so much better than the guy who hit 54 home runs in 2010; who cares if the home run numbers going forward are slightly less spectacular?

But even with the best of players, there are concerns. There is this idea of a post-break swoon from Bautista that saw him hit just .257 after the all-star break, dropping his overall season BA to .302. Of course, he still put up a .896 OPS during those “down months” where his BB rate nudged up to over 21%, so I can’t exactly say it was a major concern. Batting averages can be a fickle thing, and while Bautista’s .309 BABIP in 2011 is a significant career high for him, consider also that it is the 2nd lowest among the top 20 MLB batting leaders. Frankly, if the absolute worst Jose Bautista we saw in 2011 (.835 OPS June) was a top-40 player in the league, I’m just not all that worried.

The fact is, over the last 2 seasons, only Miguel Cabrera posted a better average OPS than Jose Bautista. Considering that Cabrera is probably the best hitter in the game, period, I think that’s pretty damned good that we’ve got a guy who has shown more power, draws more walks, and doesn’t cost $19 million a year.

Now, the hardest part about all this is how do you go about forecasting Bautista going forward? He exceeded all expectations in 2011; can we expect him to do the same in 2012? Not taking anything away from Bautista’s accomplishments, but I do think that he’s more or less hit a peak in 2011. Multiple 8+ WAR seasons isn’t really something that players are likely to do unless your name is Albert Pujols; and while I think Bautista will still perform at an elite level, there is still a fair degree of fluctuation from year-to-year among elite players, whether you’re Matt Kemp, Joey Votto, Ryan Braun, or Jose Bautista.

With that said, I still think Jose will easily be the best player on the 2012 Blue Jays:

650 PA, .295/.415/.595, 40 HR, 11 SB

The main thing that I think we’ll see a slight drop is the batting average. With the new approach, Bautista still hit .260 despite a career-low .233 BABIP in 2010, while hitting .302 with a career-high last year .309 BABIP. Assuming the luck factor normalizes things to his career profile of .280 or so, I would guess his BA will settle comfortably in the .290 range. He’ll like draw just as many walks as last season with a continued spike in IBBs, and hopefully break the 10 SB mark for the first time in his career. Bautista attempted more stolen bases in 2011 than any of his previous seasons, and without a legit cleanup hitter behind him, I think he’ll be given a good number of chances to run this year as well.

Home run numbers aren’t the biggest deal to me here – I think he’s got the power to hit 40+, but I’d be perfectly happy with 35. The American League might have added Prince and Albert this off-season, but I think Bautista will be up there, if not leading, in the home run column at the end of the season. In all, I’ve got Bautista posting a 2nd straight 1.000+ OPS season; it’d be an unlikely accomplishment for even the best of MLB players, to say the least, but Jose Bautista has made the past two seasons of his career all about breaking through with unlikely accomplishments. I’m not about to second-guess him again.

Your comments on the matter are welcomed, as always. Does anyone think the 2012 Jose Bautista will be even better than the 2011 version? On the contrary, anyone think he’s due for a significant drop in performance?

Next: the pitching staff!

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Previous 2012 Blue Jays forecasts:

The Great Big 2012 Blue Jays Forecast Series, Part 9: Colby Rasmus

Thom Tsang — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 17:20:49 +0000

With spring training officially just under a month away, we continue with a series of projections on what the 2012 Toronto Blue Jays might look like. Each day (don’t hold me to this), I will profile a 2012 Blue Jays starter, closing with a set of numbers based on my (usually positive) expectations. Today, we look at the 3rd new Blue Jays starting center fielder in the last 3 seasons, Colby Rasmus.

It’s easy to understand the enthusiasm that came with last July’s acquisition of Colby Rasmus. It’d been the type of trade that had, more or less, defined the methodology of the Anthopoulos era: one of identifying low-cost opportunities to acquire high-ceiling assets at premium positions. Considering that at the beginning of the season, the very idea of the Blue Jays acquiring Rasmus would have been scoffed at as an unfathomable pipe dream, that the team was able to get him for (basically) Frasor, Dotel, Zach Stewart, Marc Rzepsczynski, and Corey-freaking-Patterson was truly a remarkable move.

At the same time, it also demonstrated just how far, and how quickly the then-24 year old’s 5-tool stock had fallen, at least in the eyes of the St. Louis Cardinals. It’s not entirely unwarranted either: after a strong .290/.374/.450 start to the 2011 season that had him poised to be a top CF in the league (top 4 OPS in the month of April), Rasmus’ production dropped steadily over the next 3 months: .777 OPS in May, .684 in June, and an outright ugly .544 in July. By the time he was traded to the Blue Jays amidst stories of clashes with Tony La Russa about his work ethics (and an overbearing father at odds with the organization), Rasmus was an erratic player who’d occasionally displayed his skills, but more often created outs at the plate and couldn’t draw walks (7.8% in July). For a team still looking to keep up in the playoff race, it’s understandable why the Cardinals made the move they did (and in all fairness, the bullpen pieces did contribute to their World Series run).

So Rasmus got himself a change of scenery to Toronto, where he was immediately anointed the center-fielder of the future. The results of his first go in the AL, however, didn’t exactly do much buoy confidence in Rasmus’ potential with the Blue Jays. After a show start that didn’t get him register a hit in the first 3 games, Rasmus managed to put together a .698 OPS in August, thanks to a slight resurgence in his power (.208 ISO). The walk rate, however, continued to plummet, as the outfielder drew just 2 free trips to 1st base over 75 PA (2.7%); although he’d fared better than his previous two months with a .236 batting average…well, I think you get the idea. Worse, any idea that Rasmus was making baby steps towards a strong finish to the season was derailed by a wrist injury late in the month, and by the time he came back in September, Rasmus managed to just eek out a measly .283 OPS over the last 12 games, limping out of a season that he’d probably rather forget.

Yet, despite the erratic play, and the shoddy results, the forecast going into 2012 for Rasmus remains positive. Personally, I would give Rasmus a full mulligan on his ineffectual .517 OPS with the Blue Jays in 2011 and call it an adjustment period marred by injury. 140 PA doesn’t really provide much of a sample size, and I’m not going to lower expectations on Rasmus based on that. Even if you don’t write off his time with Toronto, it’s not like Rasmus is a total unknown quantity either: coming into the 2009 season as a top-5 prospect in baseball, Rasmus managed a 2.8 WAR rookie season, something that he topped with a 20-10, 4.3 WAR 2010 at just age-23. Even with all of his struggles in St. Louis last year, Rasmus was still a .753 OPS player on pace for 15 home runs – on what you’d call a down year.

Of course, there are certain issues that have to be worked out in his approach to the plate, as evidenced by his rock bottom 0.13 BB/K in the AL thus far. But, given his previous profile, there’s nothing to suggest that it’ll remain there; if anything, his time in St. Louis in 2011 demonstrates that he was making improvements in that area. While it’s alarming that Rasmus posted a 15.5% infield fly rate in 2011; it’s worth noting that the number is near triple the rate over his previous 1000+ PA, a somewhat unlikely given his relatively normal GB/FB ratio, even if you discount the high .354 BABIP that fueled his 2010 season.

In short, there were a number of things that didn’t seem quite right with Rasmus in 2011, but they seem like aberrations to the norm, rather than a continuous trend. He still showed decent power in Toronto until the wrist injury, and was a plus defender for the Blue Jays. He is a better option at CF than what we had (and currently have), and even if he won’t hit that touted 25-20 potential in 2012, I imagine we’ll see a strong bounce-back season from the 25-year old Rasmus, who will be given every opportunity to succeed this year.

With that said, here’s how successful I think Rasmus will be in 2012:

590 PA, .260/.325/.445, 19 HR, 14 SB

Maybe I’m being a little too deliberate with the numbers here in suggesting that Rasmus can push 20-15 for the first time in his career, but I don’t really see a reason why it couldn’t happen. Rasmus hit 14 home runs in a down year last season cut by injury, so I actually think 20+ homers is pretty achievable for him, with the power he’s shown so far. If anything, the SB numbers is more of a push, as he’s only stolen 12 at most in a season. Obviously, it’ll depend on how much the team will want to use his speed on the basepaths, and given that Aaron Hill, Travis Snider and Jose Bautista all hit career highs in stolen base attempts with John Farrell last season, I imagine Rasmus will be give his fair shot to do the same in 2012.

Has Rasmus’ time with the Blue Jays put a damper on your expectations of his future performance? Does anyone think he’s bound for a repeat of 2010 – or better? As always, your thoughts and comments are appreciated.

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Previous 2012 Blue Jays forecasts:

The Great Big 2012 Blue Jays Forecast Series, Part 8: Travis Snider

Thom Tsang — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 18:52:26 +0000

With spring training officially just under a month away, we continue with a series of projections on what the 2012 Toronto Blue Jays might look like. Each day (don’t hold me to this), I will profile a 2012 Blue Jays starter, closing with a set of numbers based on my (usually positive) expectations. Today, we’ll focus on the underdog in the competition in left field heading into the 2012 season, Travis Snider.

If Eric Thames’ 2011 season was about getting the opportunity and running with it, I suppose it’s only fair to say that Travis Snider’s season was about dropping the ball and failing to find it afterwards. 2011 was supposed to be different for Snider, after a 2010 season that was sidelined by injury. There was a new manager in town, and the team was committed to let him man left field coming out of spring training. Yet, just 25 games into another slow start, the Blue Jays had decided that it wouldn’t be in the best interest of the team and player to let Snider keep his roster spot, after all.

In all fairness, it’s not as though Snider had given the Blue Jays much of a reason to keep him there to begin with. Eric Thames was tearing up AAA to start the season, while Snider was mired in a .184/.276/.264 slump that had him looking totally lost at the plate. Even in a 5-game hitting streak (all singles), the team saw something alarming in his approach, and so Snider was exiled to AAA to work on fixing his mechanics. At the time of the move, I felt fairly strongly that it was unfair to Snider that the team had decided to once again yo-yo him back and forth, never really allowing Snider much time to settle into a rhythm. He was having a slow start, sure, but it’s not like we haven’t seen it before. Travis came out of the gate the same way in the previous season: entering May 1, 2010, he was posting an abysmal .149 average with a .592 OPS. Things changed quickly, however, and by May 14th, Snider had brought his average up to .241, with a .804 OPS.

It was then that he was sidelined by a strained wrist, effectively cutting his season until July. Snider wound up finishing ’10 with a bang, hitting .387/.452 over his last 7 games with 4 homers, so it’s not like his year was totally lacking in positives, even if I’d probably call it was somewhat of a lost season. The important thing was that we got a glimpse of what he could do then, and that’s in part what was upsetting about his demotion in 2011, slow start be damned.

Nonetheless, Snider went back to AAA Las Vegas, terrorized the league (although with a few minor struggles) over 277 PA as he’d done before, and was declared fixed and ready to return by the middle of summer. No problem, right? You wouldn’t think so after the first 9 games upon Snider’s return in July, where he’d hit .421 with 8 doubles in that span. He’d brought his OPS up to .719 from .540, too; but just as we thought we’d begun to see Snider make the development that he was seemingly ready to make back in ’10, all of a sudden, the power disappeared. Snider hit just 2 doubles and one home run over the last 15 games, hitting a miserable .161 in that span without drawing a single walk. Just 11 games after his 2nd demotion of the 2011 season, his season was declared over with tendinitis in his wrist.

So you can look at Snider’s age 22 and 23 seasons in a couple of ways. One, you could say he had 521 PA and didn’t do much with it. In fact, it wouldn’t be hard to make the case that Snider has been a bust at the MLB level so far. If you look at it that way, it’s not hard at all to see why Alex Anthopoulos thinks that Thames has a “leg up” on Snider for the job – let Snider start in AAA, give Thames the job, and see how things pan out.

On the flip side, you could also get selective with the dates of his successes, look at his slow starts and wrist injuries, and say that he’s never been given an extended look. Here are the facts: Snider posted .748 and .767 OPS seasons as a 21 and 22 year old. He’s still only 23, over a year younger than Eric Thames, whose .769 OPS in his age-24 2011 was accumulated over 393 PA – more looks than Snider had ever been given in any of his seasons thus far. Neither hits lefties, and neither draw very many walks, but Snider is rated a plus defender in left with an average arm. The big knock against Snider is that he strikes out a whole lot more, but until this season, he has always shown good home run power – not just good doubles power, but the head-turning, upper deck power that had him rated the a top-10 prospect in the big leagues back by just a few years ago…when he was 20 years old.

So maybe there’s a good reason for the competition after all. The most important of which, as I mentioned in the Eric Thame piece, is the upside factor: Thames might wind up being pretty good, but Snider has the potential to be great. No, potential doesn’t really do much for your team until it’s realized, but I count myself on the high-upside…side of the coin on this one. Travis Snider has been around for so long, that it’s sometimes easy to forget just how young he is, and how sometimes top prospects really seem to need some time to struggle and work things out. Snider wouldn’t be the only former-top prospect in the outfield needing a chance to prove himself either – and with the team not quite ready to be competing for a playoff spot, I just don’t see why you wouldn’t go with the higher-ceiling guy and at least really see if he’d sink or swim.

Then again, I’ve always been a Snider believer/apologist, so I’m pretty biased on the matter. I’m often reminded of Cameron Maybin when I talk about Snider; similarly rushed to the majors at a very young age, Maybin was a “bust” for years, never receiving more than 322PA in each of his first 4 years. It took him getting traded twice before he found a Padres with nothing to lose who was willing to let him play, and while he struggled early on, Maybin wound up putting together a 9 HR, 40 SB season worth 4.7 WAR – and he did it at just age 24. I’m not exactly saying that Snider is about to get there, but I don’t think he’ll be given the same playing time and opportunity that the Padres afforded Maybin either. Different team, different goals.

This is getting too long, isn’t it? Here’s what I think Snider is capable of in about half a season’s worth of work:

300 PA, .265/.315/.450, 9 HR, 5 SB

Not unlike Thames, I think Snider can be solid, if not spectacular if given the playing time; a 20-10 full season isn’t totally out of the question, given his career pace so far. The main questions are a) if he can ever get off to a good start? and b) if the Blue Jays will keep him there even with a slow start? Spring training will certainly tell us a lot about what both players have been up to, but going into it, I think Snider is going to have to have a monster spring to earn this job.

To be honest, I think that while Snider will fulfill his potential one of these years, but I don’t think he’ll do it with the Blue Jays. It doesn’t sound like Alex Anthopoulos has same the conviction when talking about Snider, the same way he has confidence in the other young guys like Rasmus, Alvarez, etc. The team has said Snider is a big part of the future, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him moved for a starter at some point.

So, who does everyone like in left field? Are you on Team Thames, or Team Snider? Should the team move one of them? I’d love to hear some of your comments on this one.

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