Revisiting My NBA Preseason Predictions: The Good, The Bad And The Stupid

By Court Zierk @courtzierk on February 12, 2015

Being a fortune-teller is a no-win proposition. When you are right, you are simply meeting the expectations of your job. When you are wrong, you are labeled a fake, a phony, an offensively repugnant imposter. It’s one thing to be incorrect when prognosticating the happenings of someone’s life and future happiness. That’s child’s play. It is another thing entirely to be erroneous when making predictions about how sports teams will perform over the course of an upcoming season. That’s where people take offense. That’s where the rubber hits the proverbial road.

Since you are all such loyal and fervent fans, I will be utterly honest with you. I have been an NBA fan for my entire life, and I have also played basketball since I could stand on my own two feet, but prior to this season, I had been a passively engaged at best, enjoying games as a fringe and modestly studious observer.

As you well know, since we’ve already established the fact that you are such amazing fans of mine, during the course of this season, I have made the transition from informed, yet sporadic participant, to wholly submerged, and deeply knowledgeable expert. With that in mind, and given the advances I have made in my basketball wisdom over the past three and a half months, I feel obligated to revisit some of my preseason NBA predictions and marvel in their accuracy, cringe at their ignorance, or some combination of the two, but doing so in an entirely self-deprecating manner.

After all, if I can’t make fun of myself, all of you will certainly be more than willing to do it for me. I may as well beat you to the punch. Eastern Conference My Eastern Conference predictions weren’t terrible, at least not yet. Here is how I had the East finishing, along with their current win-projection and how far off I would be if they continue at that pace.

	Team	Wins	Losses	Projected	Over/Under
1	Chicago Bulls	60	22	50	10
2	Cleveland Cavaliers	56	26	49	7
3	Charlotte Hornets	50	32	35	15
4	Atlanta Hawks	46	36	63	-17
5	Toronto Raptors	45	37	54	-9
6	Washington Wizards	44	38	49	-5
7	Miami Heat	44	38	36	8
8	Detroit Pistons	38	44	34	4
9	Brooklyn Nets	37	45	33	4
10	New York Knicks	35	47	20	15
11	Boston Celtics	32	50	33	-1
12	Indiana Pacers	25	57	34	-9
13	Orlando Magic	24	58	26	-2
14	Milwaukee Bucks	20	62	46	-26
15	Philadelphia 76ers	12	70	19	-7

There are obviously a couple of things that stand out. First, while I had the Atlanta Hawks finishing in the top half of the conference, I didn’t see them being nearly as good as they have turned out to be. They are currently on pace to win 63 games, meaning I would have undersold them by 17 games if they keep up this pace. I don’t feel too terrible for this, as nobody saw the Hawks coming. I was stupid, but at least I wasn’t alone in my ignorance.

Second, I completely overestimated how good the Charlotte Hornets would be. They are certainly better now than they were at the beginning of the season, and they may make up some more ground, but they will certainly not approach the 50 games I predicted them to win. In retrospect, this was probably my most unforgivable mistake in the Eastern Conference, and now that I understand more about the ins and outs of the game, I would undoubtedly make a better projection. Chalk this up to not fully understanding their talent, and how incompatible their pieces are.

Third, and my most lopsided projection, the Milwaukee Bucks are on track to win 46 games, blowing my 20-win prediction out of the water. This may have been the biggest lapse in judgment, but again, the Bucks are one of the NBA’s surprise teams, and I was certainly not alone in my assumption that they would be near the bottom of the league again.

Other than these three, I feel fairly good about my remaining picks. Apparently I thought the East would be much stronger than they have turned out to be as a whole, but I did a decent job of identifying the teams that would be in the playoff picture. Western Conference This is where things get weird. Here is my Western Conference predictions, again with their current win-projection and how far off I would be if they finish with that many wins.

	Team	Wins	Losses	Projected	Over/Under
1	San Antonio Spurs	60	22	50	10
2	Los Angeles Clippers	57	25	53	4
3	Dallas Mavericks	54	28	52	2
4	Portland Trail Blazers	51	31	53	-2
5	Golden State Warriors	51	31	65	-14
6	Oklahoma City Thunder	50	32	45	5
7	Houston Rockets	49	33	54	-5
8	Denver Nuggets	49	33	32	17
9	Memphis Grizzlies	48	34	57	-9
10	Phoenix Suns	47	35	53	-6
11	New Orleans Pelicans	42	40	43	-1
12	Sacramento Kings	31	51	30	1
13	Los Angeles Lakers	29	53	24	5
14	Utah Jazz	24	58	33	-9
15	Minnesota Timberwolves	20	62	18	2

Four things really stand out.

First, and most embarrassingly, I had the Memphis Grizzlies on the outside, looking into the playoffs. I have already taken my fair share of grief for this one so please try to go easy on me. In my defense, they are on track to win 57 games, and I had them winning 48, so I would only be nine games off. But, we all know now that nine games in the Western Conference may as well be 29. This is an ignorance pick, and I should have known better and listened to those who saw the Grizzlies taking the next step on the backs of their extremely solid nucleus.

Secondly, the Denver Nuggets may well be the most disappointing team in the league this year, and my prediction demonstrates this. They are tracking to win 32 games, 17 fewer than I pegged them at. This may well have a lot to do with my loyalties, but I was also not alone in thinking they would be at least a fringe playoff team.

Third, I knew the Golden State Warriors would be a really good team, but I obviously didn’t think they would have the historic season they are currently having. I’m not too down on myself for this pick, because anyone who tells you they anticipated them being the best offensive and the best defensive team is just lying to you.

Lastly, I thought the San Antonio Spurs would be back on the top of the West this season, and I really didn’t have any doubts about it. While they are still on track for a 50-win season, that would also be the worst finish they have had since 2009 — not counting the 2011-2012 strike shortened season. I didn’t see them “struggling” to the extent they have. Otherwise, my picks in the Western Conference appear to be fairly solid.

Takeaways

Again, I have learned more over the past several months than I have in my last five years of casual NBA consumption combined. Next year, my predictions will certainly be more informed, educated and nuanced. But, at the end of the day, there are so many variables that go into how every team performs that even a reasonably accurate projection becomes nearly impossible.

I made some glaring mistakes, but I’d say for the vast majority of the league, I did a fairly respectable job. So, go ahead. Laugh, jeer, poke fun and make blanket generalizations about me. I completely understand. But, I hope you can at least respect my transparency and willingness to improve.

That’s more than Chad Ford can say right?

Court Zierk is a Columnist for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @CourtZierk, “Like” him on Facebook or add him on Google.