The Wisconsin Badgers and Kentucky Wildcats have played out this script once before. How the sequel unfolds remains to be seen.
Regardless of the outcome of their Final Four encounter on Saturday night, both teams have seen their respective narratives progress dramatically since taking the court for Act One last April. In fact, it could be reasonably argued both squad’s 2014-15 journeys began the night Aaron Harrison’s dramatic, left-wing three-point shot sent the Wildcats into the National Championship tilt against UConn.
While the Badgers ultimately saw their dream season come to an end in that 74-73 loss, they figured a return trip to the Final Four could be in the cards. After all, Wisconsin returned the bulk of a 30-win team heading into 2014-15. Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker were a year older while Josh Gasser, Traevon Jackson and emerging star Nigel Hayes provided enough backbone for Madison natives to dream of a return to the big stage.
After the Wildcats fell one win short against UConn two nights later, worries were also few and far-between for a Kentucky outfit returning Aaron Harrison, Andrew Harrison, Dakari Johnson, Willie Cauley-Stein and Marcus Lee. Add to that a monstrous recruiting haul featuring Karl-Anthony Towns, Melvin Booker and Tyler Ulis, and talk of an undefeated season began almost immediately after the championship tilt concluded.
Fast forward a year and the rematch is upon us as the two sides eye each other for Wisconsin vs. Kentucky 2.0. The result is a bevy of storylines both rich and compelling in nature.
Kentucky seeks history as college basketball‘s first-ever 40-0 national champion. Wisconsin, meanwhile, hopes to win their first national semifinal since 1941. There’s also the impending Kaminsky-Towns meeting in the middle to go along with the prospect of Dekker matching up against both Harrison twins. On the sidelines, the flashy John Calipari and hard-nosed Bo Ryan figure to provide plenty of entertainment for onlookers at Lucas Oil Stadium as well.
A year ago, it was one clutch shot from Aaron Harrison that made the difference. Can we expect more of the same on Saturday? Both teams will undoubtedly need to perform well in crunch time because a blowout appears highly unlikely.
The Badgers are simply too efficient on offense. They don’t turn the ball over (just 7.4 giveaways per game), are highly accurate from the floor (48.2 shooting percentage) and rebound well (plus-5.7 for the season). Wisconsin is also incredibly balanced with five players averaging at least 8.6 points per game. They can shoot it from the outside (12-of-18 from three-point range vs. Arizona in the west regional final) and won’t panic if they get behind.
Meanwhile, Kentucky’s depth borders on the ridiculous. They have 10 players who average at least 11 minutes per outing and six averaging at least 8.7 points per contest. To top it off, they limit the opposition to just 35 percent shooting and block nearly seven shots a night.
The real question is whether Wisconsin can handle Kentucky’s bundle of big-men. Between Towns, Cauley-Stein and Johnson, the Wildcats have enough size to impress an NBA team.
Up until now, no opponent has been able to cope with Kentucky’s massive height in the post. In Kaminsky, the Badgers have at least one option to keep the Wildcats off balance. The Illinois-native will need help however, and that’s where Dekker, Hayes and Duje Dukan will be counted on to body-up in the middle.
Kentucky also has a size edge on the outside with both Harrisons and Booker standing above 6-foot-5. The Badgers counter with 6-foot-4 guards Gasser and Bronson Koenig. Off the bench, Jackson is only 6-foot-3, meaning Wisconsin will face height deficiencies at just about every spot.
Don’t expect any changes in philosophy, however. Wisconsin will continue to do what they always do – execute the fundamentals while playing tough, man-to-man defense. Will it be enough to trip up Kentucky in Saturday’s rematch? If the Badgers can adjust to the Wildcats’ combination of size and strength, the final outcome could be decided in the final minutes.
It’ll be a massive undertaking, but if Wisconsin can keep it close, Ryan and his team will have as good a chance as anyone at sending Kentucky home with a singular blemish on that spotless record.
Matt Johnson is a Big 10 basketball writer for www.rantsports.com. Follow him on Twitter at mattytheole or “like” him on Facebook.