Tony Boy’s 25 Fantasy Guarantees

Tommy: Let’s think about this for a sec, Ted. Why would somebody put a guarantee on a box? Hmmm, very interesting.
Ted Nelson, Customer: Go on, I’m listening.Be
Tommy: Here’s the way I see it, Ted. Guy puts a fancy guarantee on a box ’cause he wants you to feel all warm and toasty inside.
Ted Nelson, Customer: Yeah, makes a man feel good.
Tommy: ‘Course it does. Why shouldn’t it? Ya figure you put that little box under your pillow at night, the Guarantee Fairy might come by and leave a quarter, am I right, Ted?
Ted Nelson, Customer: What’s your point?
Tommy: The point is, how do you know the fairy isn’t a crazy glue sniffer? “Building model airplanes” says the little fairy; well, we’re not buying it. He sneaks into your house once, that’s all it takes. The next thing you know, there’s money missing off the dresser, and your daughter’s knocked up. I’ve seen it a hundred times.
Ted Nelson, Customer: But why do they put a guarantee on the box?
Tommy: Because they know all they sold ya was a guaranteed piece of s***. That’s all it is, isn’t it? Hey, if you want me to take a dump in a box and mark it guaranteed, I will. I got spare time. But for now, for your customer’s sake, for your daughter’s sake, ya might wanna think about buying a quality product from me.
Ted Nelson, Customer: [pause] Okay, I’ll buy from you.

OK, so the point of this rant from this classic Tommy Boy scene is that a guarantee isn’t worth much, but it makes people feel good because it’s a guarantee. It’s supposed to be right, it’s supposed to be correct.

In that spirit, under the pseudoname Tony Boy (get it, like Tommy Boy, but with my name, instead?), I have comprised a list of 25 guarantees that you can take to heart for the 2010 Fantasy Football season.

I may not be a “Guarantee Fairy,” but it’s the same nonetheless:

1. Bernard Scott outperforms Cedric Benson.
Reports out of camp are that Scott is in the best shape of his career. He allegedly looks “spry” as I read in one article. He’s always been fast, but never really had the chance to prove himself. In 2009, in the three games in which Scott had 10 or more touches, he accrued 37 fantasy points on 239 rushing yards (4.6 yards per carry), 53 receiving  yards and a kickoff returned for a TD. He was also hampered a little by injuries last year, but this season, he’ll slot in again as the surefire No. 2 back in a great offense. The Bengals apparently haven’t gotten the new-age two-RB model for success and ran Cedric Benson into the ground last year, so his health is scary to me at this point. Benson has never been a fixture of durability and even if he doesn’t get hurt, there’s no guarantee that he’ll be consistent and maintain his starting job with Scott hot on his heels. Plus, it’s not like we can expect Benson to go a year without getting arrested or suspended at all, right??

2. Owen Daniels will come in as the best fantasy TE.
I don’t think it’s much of a secret anymore that I’m completely infatuated with Daniels. I always liked him, but last year, I was able to get him in every single one of my leagues. Yes, he did get hurt halfway through the season, but at the time of his injury, he was on track to become the best fantasy tight end. In those first seven games, the Naperville, Ill., native totaled 115 fantasy points, good for a 16.4 points per game average. In no game did he churn out less than six points, and he even scored above 20 twice, both of which were the two games before he was injured (26 and 25 points). Throw in the fact that Matt Schaub ended last year as the NFL’s leading passer and that Andre Johnson and Jacoby Jones will stretch the field for Daniels to snag the underneath passes and you have yourself fantasy gold.

3. Darren McFadden will outperform Michael Bush.
I have to be honest, I don’t have much to support this one. It’s just a gut feeling, and sometimes fantasy football is all about following your gut feelings. McFadden had an incredible collegiate career, but has been a bust thus far in the NFL (much like Michael Bush’s namesake Reggie Bush), but people forget that he is only 23 and he has played on some pretty awful offensive teams with some pretty awful aerial games. Talk about bust—JaMarcus Russell was a true bust. But now, Jason Campbell has taken the reins under center and defenses will have to respect the passing attack more. Thus, no more eight and nine men in the box for McFadden. Bush is also out with a toe injury and will miss Week 1, and likely more. If that injury turns out to be serious at all, McFadden could be a solid No. 2 RB that is being drafted in the 10th round.

4. Darrius Heyward-Bey will end 2010 as a Top 30 WR.
OK, so DHB (as he is being known as now) did not have a rookie season for the ages. He didn’t even have a rookie season for one age, let alone plural. But, he was a rookie, and the norm rather than the exception for rookie wideouts are that they underperform. There’s the whole mantra that WRs take three years to learn the system and truly perform up to standards, especially in fantasy. Not everybody can be Michael Crabtree or Larry Fitzgerald. Look at Sidney Rice. He epitomizes this mantra. Yes, DHB will only be entering his second season, but  he will be entering it with a quarterback that can actually pass the ball, not just throw it. A novel concept in Oakland, I know. DHB has speed to burn, and can easily remind Jason Campbell of a young Santana Moss, whom he connected with well in Washington. Also, reports are out of camp that DHB is focused and dedicated in ’10. Look for him to have a monster season, at least by a Raiders’ standards.

5. Jay Cutler becomes a Top 5 fantasy QB.
Mike Martz’s offensive scheme is well known for QBs turning the ball over (as even one of the most accurate QBs in history, Kurt Warner, threw a lot of picks under Martz), but it is also a great offensive scheme for QBs to rack up yards and scores, i.e. fantasy points. Heck, even Jon Kitna threw for over 4,000 yards under Martz. Cutler will also have to play from behind again (I’m sorry, I am a big Bears fan, but I don’t see them getting a lot of early leads on teams) and he has another year under his belt with his receiving corps. Last year, I would estimate at least 10 of his INTs were the result of the WRs not being in the right place at the right time. While timing is increasingly more important in the Martz scheme, I truly think that it will work out for Cutler. 2009 humbled him. 2010 will humble his nay-sayers.

6. Tony Romo will be 2010’s top fantasy QB.
Why? Well, for one, his most recent girlfriend (Candice Crawford) can’t sing about their inevitable breakup like Jessica Simpson and Carrie Underwood could. However, she is a journalist and may make their breakup breaking news, but it’d be old news by then. She’s just another hot blonde thrown to the curb by the QB and posterboy of America’s team (I have to say, I do like Romo’s style. I’m a blonde man myself). Plus, Crawford is as low-profile as his girlfriends have been, so he’ll have more time to focus on football. Throw in a full season with T-Rex Miles Austin (who has the true celebrity girlfriend) and Roy Williams, add electric rookie Dez Bryant, sprinkle in a healthy Felix Jones (whose speed and explosiveness provide an excellent screen option) and toss in a dash of Jason Witten getting open in the endzone, and you have Romo as the top fantasy QB and NFL MVP. Yes, seriously.

7. Peyton Manning will NOT be a Top 5 fantasy QB.
Yes, seriously. The Colts lost in the Super Bowl last year and are getting a healthy Bob Sanders back, so I think they will change their gameplan a little more towards the old Steelers’ run-and-play-hard-nosed-defense approach. Not as much as other teams, but Manning will throw less in 2010 than he did in 2009. Also, while I like Pierre Garcon, it still remains to be seen whether last season was a fluke for him and Austin Collie. Anthony Gonzalez can’t be trusted on to remain healthy and Dallas Clark is getting old (yep, he’s 31 now). Reggie Wayne is still elite, but I just like 5 quarterbacks more than Manning in fantasy in 2010 (Romo, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Schaub, Drew Brees and Cutler, though I’m sure I’m the only one in that sentiment). Donald Brown will announce his presence on that team in 2010, and thus will need to receive more touches.

8. Steve Smith (CAR) scores 10 TDs.
He has a great working relationship with Matt Moore and all reports out of Carolina are Jimmy Clausen, who is battling a toe injury, will spend most of the season with a clipboard. Smith is still an elite fantasy WR, and I do believe he will regain his perch as fantasy football’s best Steve Smith.

9. Devin Hester finally emerges as an elite fantasy receiver. Think 1,100 yards and 8-10 TDs.
See No. 5 above. If Cutler is going to emerge as a Top 5 fantasy QB, he will need to throw to someone. Greg Olsen is reportedly being shopped and Johnny Knox and Devin Aromashodu aren’t exactly Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison. Or Cris Carter and Randy Moss. Or Jekyll and Hyde. (I don’t know, I ran out of dynamic WR combos. Just go with it.) As I stated above, WRs usually need three years to adapt to the NFL game, but Hester has had four years. However, with all the time he spent as a defensive back early in his career, and his obvious return prowess, Hester has really only had the last three years to focus on WR. Thus, 2010 is his third year. Look for it to be a big season.

10. Matt Forte re-emerges as a Top 10 back.
Yes, I do have a lot of Bears on here. It’s just that I’m actually excited about how their offense could be this year. I mean, it’s looked terrible so far this preseason, but the Bears haven’t exactly been showing their whole hand. They aren’t running all of the plays in their repertoire. Forte has looked explosive in the preseason thus far (more explosive than his rookie season, even) and he was definitely hampered by injuries last year. He was also the only back worth his weight in salt in the Chicago backfield last year, so he didn’t have a chance to rest. With Chester Taylor in town, Forte should be fresher all season long and be more consistent from week to week. Of course, all these Bears predictions are a moot point if the offensive line continues to look like the 32nd ranked line in the NFL, as it has thus far in the preseason. A Pee Wee team could get pressure on these guys.

11. Carson Palmer will throw for 4,000 yards and 25+ TDs.
Hello Twitter and VH1, meet the T.Ochocino show. The two most enigmatic, arrogant, show-boating, diva wide receivers to ever play the game are suddenly in the same clubhouse, on the same field, catching passes from the same guy. The Cincinnati Wideout Experiment has either two outcomes: it either completely tanks, or it blows up to be the scariest attack in the league. I’m betting on the latter, actually. T.O. and Ochocinco may be getting up there in age, but in reality, when motivated, they are two of the best receivers in the NFL. Defenses won’t be able to cover them both. Toss in Jordan Shipley (who could be Wes Welker-lite, though he is buried on the depth chart right now), Andre Caldwell, Jermaine Gresham—the first actual receiving threat at tight end in Cincinnati in recent memory—and the explosive Bernard Scott out of the backfield, and even Matt Leinart could throw for 4,000 and 25+. Maybe even Cade McNown. OK, that’s stretching it, but are Leinart and McNown even different people at this point?

12. Felix Jones will be the second-best fantasy player on Dallas, behind only Tony Romo.
I may not be out on much of a limb by saying that this year, as any fool can see that if Jones could just stay healthy, he could be the most dynamic back in the entire NFL. But, with Miles Austin going two rounds ahead of Jones and even Jason Witten and Marion Barber being selected ahead of the Arkansas alum in several drafts, the world isn’t taking note in their draft lobbies. I’m betting Jones stays healthy for most, if not all, of the fantasy season and totals more than 1,500 yards (both rushing and receiving).

13. Nate Burleson outperforms Calvin Johnson.
When Calvin Johnson first came to the NFL, I was smitten. Megatron was the perfect name for this physical freak. I drafted or traded for him in every single one of my Madden teams for two years straight. But, the fact of the matter is, Calvy just isn’t an elite fantasy WR just yet. He should be eventually, but I don’t think it will be in 2010. Most of Johnson’s routes are deep, stretching the field. Well, even though Matty Stafford is another year older and wiser and better, Detroit’s line simply won’t hold up long enough for Matty to connect with Calvy deep downfield that often. Burleson, on the other hand, is a good short option for Stafford, who will have blitzers in his face all day every day, leading to a bunch of receptions, and more importantly, a bunch of yards and potential TDs.

14. Ryan Grant does not surpass 1,000 total yards.
I’ve never been high on Grant. Maybe it’s because he’s not sexy or flashy. Maybe it’s because he’s on the Packers and I’m a Bears fan. But, maybe it’s because he’s just not that good. I truly feel that Grant is just the product of a good system and a great passing game that forces defenses to keep five or six guys back on every snap. I don’t doubt Grant’s fantasy football prowess the past couple of years. He has been good. But, I think he’s also been lucky. His luck runs out in 2010. He won’t be able to avoid injury as well and he’ll suddenly realize that he’s just not as good as his numbers show. With Brandon Jackson lurking behind him, I’m not so sure Grant is even the best RB option on his own team, let alone on any fantasy team. Just my thoughts.

15. Kevin Walter becomes a viable week-in and week-out starter.
I’ve always liked Walter. He was seemingly on the fast track to fantasy stardom after 2008, a season in which he totaled 899 yards and 8 scores. That’s 137 points in standard fantasy leagues, good for 8.6 per week. But then 2009 and Jacoby Jones came along and Walter got pushed to the curb with his bad hamstring. Maybe it was just the hamstring that limited him in ’09, or maybe it was the fact that Jones is just a better option. But, Walter is from Illinois (not that that’s truly pertinent at all) and Schaub has a lot of yards to spread around, so I’m buying for 2010. He won’t be fantasy elite material, or even a No. 2 WR, but he’ll be a good flex or No. 3 WR option.

16. Jamaal Charles goes for 1,500 total yards and at least 10 TDs.
My colleague Scott Rogers wrote in a recent article about how much he loves Jamaal Charles for 2010. I’ll refer you to that article for more bearing, but also I feel it’s worth nothing that Charles has three vowels in his first name, all “a”. How cool is that? He’s got to be a fantasy star just on that notion alone.

17. Chad Henne becomes a weekly starter.
Two words: Brandon. Marshall. While I’ve already made it public that I’m not a huge fan of Marshall, I only meant that I’m not a huge fan of him going in the second round of fantasy drafts. I don’t think he should be one of the top five receivers off the board. But, he’s head, shoulders, and torso above Davone Bess and Ted Ginn, Jr. as Henne’s best receiver option, so sign me up for some Chad Henne going all CHADDDD HENNEEEEEEEE. The young gunslinger showed some promise last year and with a legit No. 1 receiver, Ronnie Brown returning from injury, a seemingly viable threat in TE Anthony Fasano and a rejuvenated Ricky Williams, Henne’s name will be shouted in delight often in 2010.

18. Toby Gerhart will be the second best rookie RB, behind only Ryan Mathews.
That would mean Gerhart would come in ahead of Jahvid Best and C.J. Spiller. Why do I think this? I don’t know. Maybe I’m an idiot. I know a lot of people who would agree with that. But, maybe, just maybe, Best and Spiller won’t perform well in 2010. Spiller’s got Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson vulturing carries on a team that will be trailing often and forced to throw as a result. Best is on a team that hasn’t been able to successfully run the ball since Barry Sanders retired. And Adrian Peterson will need a break eventually, right? I mean, he’s got to get tired sometimes, right? Right?

19. Lance Moore will come back to fantasy relevancy.
If you’re asking “who?!” then you’re probably not alone. Lance Moore was the WR whom Drew Brees loved best in 2008, racking up 79 catches for 928 yards and 10 scores. Last year, those numbers fell to 14-153-2. Why? Well, for one, injuries–ankle, shoulder, hamstring. Secondly, Robert Meachem came on to steal a lot of those targets. As much as it pains me to say it because Meachem is my No. 2 receiver on one of my teams, Meachem he is battling a foot/toe injury and those have been known to halt receivers and running backs in their tracks. Plus, Devery Henderson isn’t exactly going to make the all-hands team anytime soon and Breesus does like spreading the ball around.

20. Victor Cruz outperforms Hakeem Nicks.
Dude, this Cruz guy is having a PRESEASON. (The caps is meant to mean that it’s not just an average preseason, but one that necessitates all caps.) And, Nicks is due for a sophomore slump. And, I don’t particularly like Mario Manningham. Steve Smith is good, but is he this good? Cruz, on the other hand, has great hands, is explosive, fast and exciting. Sign me up.

21. Mark Sanchez throws 30 TDs.
He’s got Braylon Edwards, Dustin Keller, Jerricho Cotchery, Santonio Holmes (post-suspension) and Shonn Green to throw to. Oh yeah, and some guy named LaDainian Tomlinson, who may just be the best receiving back in history. I could throw 30 TDs to these guys. I bet 16 of the tuddies (yes, seriously) go to Bedwards (cool new nickname right?).

22. Malcom Floyd outperforms V-Jax, even when V-Jax comes back.
Vincent Jackson is a great receiver, yes. But I think he’s burned his bridge in San Diego. Or, he’s at least lit the fuse. Floyd, on the other hand, is a physically dominant receiver (6-5, 225) and should benefit greatly from Jackson’s early-season absence and the subsequent targets worthy of a No. 1 receiver in the San Diego offense. Rivers is an exceptional QB, Antonio Gates will garner the most attention and the Chargers have a great aerial attack and should have a good running game with Mathews, so expect there to many opportunities for Floyd to out-leap everybody in the endzone. I’m thinking double digit TDs aren’t out of the question.

23. Alex Smith ends as a Top 10 QB.
Yes, seriously. The former 1st overall pick who was as highly profiled as Sam Bradford, but then failed and labeled as a bust only to rejuvenate his career in ’09 as a starter again. That same Alex Smith. Despite his already-colorful and busy career, Smith is still just 26 years old. He’s clearly displayed better decision-making of late (last season and this preseason) and has a full year under his belt with non-holdout Michael Crabtree and the newly-dynamic Vernon Davis at TE. Plus, Josh Morgan is a pretty solid No. 2 option for Smith and Ted Ginn, Jr., while not a highly talented WR, has speed to burn and will stretch the field. I’m buying Smith this year. For sure.

24. Vince Young ends as a Top 10 QB.
Yeah, he’s pretty much had the same career as Smith: former Top 3 pick who garnered a lot of press and attention only to fail and be labeled as a bust and then prove everybody wrong in ’09 with a strong second half. Like Smith, Young is still young (only 27) and he does have the NFL’s best weapon in his backfield (Chris Johnson). He also has the promising Kenny Britt to throw to and the unique fact that he could easily rush for 600 yards and 6 scores, which greatly helps fantasy owners. He looks like a completely different player now and looks like a true, mature leader. I’m in.

25. Clinton Portis comes back to fantasy relevancy.
Let’s end with one of my favorite players of all time: Clinton Portis. He’s only 29 (most running backs hit a wall at age 30), though it seems like he’s been in the league for decades. Portis’ Washington career has been seemingly nothing but injuries, but he’s still had some very productive years and I truly believe he has some left in his tank, despite his incredible mileage thus far (2,418 career touches). Plus, he’s reunited with Mike Shanahan, who coached Portis to over 3,000 rushing yards and 29 rushing scores in two years in Denver. He also doesn’t have to be the man anymore in DC, as it’s now Donovan McNabb’s team, so the pressure is off.