It may seem like common sense, but players in higher scoring offenses tend to score more points in fantasy football leagues. However, year after year fantasy owners continually draft players on underachieving teams like the St. Louis Rams, Oakland Raiders, New York Jets, and Jacksonville Jaguars.
These teams have limited fantasy value due to their inability to score on a reliable basis. I mean, how valuable is a 6-3 game for the fantasy players involved that are not kickers?
To help you see the difference, let’s look at the top five scoring offenses from last season.
1. New England Patriots – 34.8 points/ game
2. Denver Broncos – 30.1 points/ game
3. New Orleans Saints – 28.8 points/ game
4. Washington Redskins – 27.3 points/ game
5. Green Bay Packers – 27.1 points/ game
In some of these offenses the team’s third wideout is a valuable fantasy receiver simply because of the number of touchdowns the team will score. Guys like James Jones, Lance Moore, and Eric Decker continue to shine despite not being the team’s focal receiver. It just shows how valuable these high-powered offenses can be to fantasy owners.
Now let’s look at the bottom five teams in the league.
32. Kansas City Chiefs – 13.2 points/ game
31. Arizona Cardinals – 15.6 points/ game
30. Jacksonville Jaguars – 15.9 points/ game
29. Philadelphia Eagles – 17.5 points/game
28. New York Jets – 17.6 points/game
The difference between the two is almost staggering to look at. The top-five teams scored almost two touchdowns more per game than the teams at the bottom of the league. These low-scoring teams have no players that can make a reliable fantasy impact, outside of the lucky few, because their offense is simply is too inconsistent. Even the number one wideouts on these teams are hardly worthy of fantasy consideration.
We all know the Jets and Jaguars will struggle offensively all year long, so it is better to ignore them all together and let someone else deal with the headache on a weekly basis. All I am saying is that if you have to make a choice between two mid-level wideouts, always take the one that is featured in the better offense. The team is more likely to score more touchdowns each week and thus give your guy a better chance of tasting pay-dirt.