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2014 Fantasy Football: One Major Aspect Needs to Be to Considered When Drafting WRs

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By @SicEm18

Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

Lately, my posts have been about rookie WRs and how many are primed for success this year. There were five wide receivers taken in the first round; the last four of which I believe could all be viable fantasy options. But the thing is … most rookie wide receivers struggle in their transition from playing on Saturday to Sunday in the NFL.

Since 2007, only A.J. Green and Keenan Allen have reeled in over 1,000 yards as rookie WRs. So that in itself limits wide receivers in their fantasy production. In fact, you’ll typically find a lone rookie in the top ranks among WRs. But before you start looking at averages, red-zone targets, catch percentage and any number of metrics, go back to the basis of receiving statistics.

I’ll tell it on the mound … receptions, receptions, receptions.

I know — in standard leagues, receptions don’t count for points. But yards do. To get those yards, you need to catch the ball first. You really can’t go wrong picking a wideout who gets targeted often, and catches a mass quantity of balls.

In the last five seasons, a wide receiver who places in the top 10 in receptions has only fell outside of the top 30 once – Danny Amendola in 2010. Furthermore, only five players who landed in the top 20 in receptions fell out of the top 30 in fantasy production among wide receivers. That means, if you can take in around 70 receptions in a season, you’re almost guaranteed a slot as a top fantasy producer.

Now, that’s easier said than done.  Just look at Calvin Johnson in his rookie campaign in which he saw only 48 receptions — ranking 34th in the league. Now, that’s not “bad” — that’s WR3 production. So to guarantee that a player like Kelvin Benjamin will be a top WR is far from the truth. Because when a dominant player who was picked third overall in the draft fails to the top 50 receptions, there’s some warning flags against starting rookie wide receivers.

Benjamin has the opportunity to be a great fantasy option, as does Brandin Cooks. But whether that is squandered is the question, and we really won’t know anything more until more reports come out of team camps on each player’s progress.

Just keep in mind: more opportunity usually equates to more statistical success. That’s not just for rookie players, that’s for everyone. Think about it this way…

Even if a player averages just 10 yards per reception, and can tack on four touchdowns, you’re still getting over 100 fantasy points from them. But how often do you see a player have that output and only have 10 yards per catch? Not very often.

So at your draft this year, remember my motto: “Receptions matter.”

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