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The Buffalo Bills drafted Sammy Watkins out of Clemson University with the fourth overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft. Watkins is touted as one of the most pro-ready players of the draft and a superb talent. But even so, how big of an impact will he have for fantasy football owners in his rookie season?
In 2013, only one rookie WR managed to finish the season as a top-30 WR in standard scoring leagues. Despite starting the year off slowly and playing in only 15 games, Keenan Allen managed to end the year with over 1,000 yards and eight TDs. In fact, most successful fantasy WRs, including the likes of Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas, don’t break out until their second or third seasons in the league.
But then again, few rookies enter the league as the No. 1 WR on the team. Oftentimes, rookie WRs begin their careers as the No. 2 or No. 3 receiver. Guys like DeAndre Hopkins and Terrance Williams had to contend with veteran WRs like Andre Johnson and Dez Bryant. Both Hopkins and Williams could have produced far better fantasy results had they been the No. 1 WRs on the depth chart for their respective teams last season.
Watkins has amazing speed and agility, burning defenders after the catch. He also has great hands and body control to catch balls that aren’t perfectly thrown. The only two reservations I have about Watkins’ 2014 fantasy production aren’t even related to him. I’m more concerned about E.J. Manuel’s abilities as a QB and Buffalo’s reliance on the running game.
In the 10 games he played last season, Manuel only managed to throw for over 200 yards in four of them. He has a lot of room for improvement, especially with his deeper throws. Part of the issue may be that he missed so much time and never got into a rhythm.
But that’s the other issue. Manuel suffered three separate knee injuries last season, missing two preseason and six regular season games, and he hasn’t yet shown that he can stay healthy. If Manuel goes down, I have very little faith in Thad Lewis or Jeff Tuel sustaining any Bills WRs’ fantasy value.
Furthermore, Buffalo passed on only 51.08 percent of plays last season, good for third-fewest in the league, ahead of only the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers. Head coach Doug Marrone is committed to the run, especially with three talented RBs at his disposal in C.J. Spiller, Fred Jackson and Bryce Brown. Even as the No. 1 WR, it’s unclear how many opportunities Watkins will see during the season.
While talented, I don’t think the deep passes and TDs will be there for Watkins his rookie year. He will still get plenty of targets and make some spectacular plays after the catch, but I think that he finishes the season with about 900 yards and five TDs. His current ADP is in the eighth or ninth round, which should give you some value. However, I wouldn’t bank on Watkins as anything more than a WR3 with upside in 2014.
Meng Song is a writer for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @ms0ng, “like” him on Facebook or add him to your Google+ network.
