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Fantasy Football Week 11 Sleeper: Alfred Blue

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By @RoKnowsDFS

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The Cleveland Browns are currently ranked 16th in the NFL when it comes to defending the run. Per game, they give up an average of 108 yards with a 67 percent chance of yielding a rushing TD. Additionally, they give up an average of four catches and 38 receiving yards per game to RBs. Therefore, with a pending Week 11 matchup against the Houston Texans, it seemed like an ideal situation for star RB Arian Foster to add another dominant performance to his excellent 2014 season. Unfortunately, Foster suffered a groin injury in Houston’s Week 9 game against the Philadelphia Eagles and his condition didn’t seem to improve enough during their Week 10 bye. Therefore, the former Tennessee Volunteer has officially been ruled out for this Sunday’s game, and he won’t travel with the team to Cleveland.

What does this mean for fantasy football players? It means that rookie Alfred Blue will get the start and is a must-add, especially for Foster owners.

Asides from Foster being out, there are a couple of reasons why Blue should be deployed this week. The first reason is the debut of QB Ryan Mallett for the Texans. Houston is not going to put Mallett on the field with the intent of throwing the ball 35-plus times ala Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning. The foundation of Houston’s offensive attack is the run game, and they can still be quite successful with Blue handling the bulk of the carries. Therefore, even though chances will be taken through the air to DeAndre Hopkins and Andre Johnson, the offensive coaching staff will ease Mallett into the flow of things by having him hand the ball to Blue early and often. The minimum range of carries that the former LSU Tiger should see is 18-20, but don’t be surprised if it ends up being more.

The second reason that strongly endorses Blue as a Top-15 fantasy RB this week is the defense he gets to face. While it may appear that the Browns have an average run defense due to their yards-per-game statistic, their run defense grade according to Pro Football Focus is a -3.0. For reference, a grade of 0.0 is the equivalent of being at league average, and it’s neither positive or negative. Therefore, Cleveland’s run defense is performing slightly worse than the surface numbers would indicate. On the other side of the ball, the Texans’ run blocking grade is 0.0, which gives them the advantage over the Browns’ run stopping efforts. The only advantage that Cleveland has in this situation is the venue since it’s a home game for them. Otherwise, all signs point towards Houston having the ground game advantage.

As stated earlier, if you’re a Foster owner, then it’s borderline mandatory that you add and play Blue this weekend. When compared to other potential Week 11 sleepers, such as Rashad Jennings and Ryan Matthews, Blue is an RB that I would personally start over them. He is currently owned in 39 percent of Yahoo leagues, and 33.4 percent of ESPN leagues. It would be wise to scoop him up now before your opponent does. He is the ultimate definition of a fantasy football sleeper this week.

Roje Smith is a Fantasy Sports writer for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @RoKnowsDFS, “Like” him on Facebook or add him to your network on Google.

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