NBA Top Plays for Monday, January 30th

By Will Colello

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Point Guard

Mike Conley $16,050

The Grizzlies will face off with the Suns tonight, and will see a huge uptick in pace. Conley isn’t the sexiest player to roster, but he is extremely safe and is a lock in cash games. Eric Bledsoe is a fine defender, but the Suns play fast and give up the 7th most fantasy points per game. Conley has been sitting around 34-36 minutes over the last few weeks, and is one of only 2 guys that can create his own shot on the Grizzlies. Conley usually goes overlooked, and I would expect him to stay around 10% owned tonight. I will have Conley in both cash games and tournaments tonight, and suggest you do to. He has a floor around 35, and a ceiling over 50.

Ricky Rubio $13,300

Rubio is another guy who has been getting solid minutes, and we know Tom Thibs loves to push his starters for huge minutes. He will face off with the Magic and Elfrid Payton tonight, who give up plenty to point guards. Over the last month, the Magic have ranked 7th worst vs PG’s giving up over 47 FP per game. Rubio derives his upside from peripherals, which is where he could thrive against the Magic. They play fast, and the more possessions the better. I like both Rubio and Payton in this one, but will lean Rubio due to the safe minutes and higher usage. There are a lot of ways to go at PG tonight, but Rubio is one of my favorites.

Shooting Guard

Dion Waiters $12,300

I could of went with Dragic at PG, but didn’t want to go with too many Heat guys. Waiters and Dragic are both terrific plays here, but I will be leaning Waiters. He is considerably cheaper, and has had a similar usage over the last week. The Nets are the worst defense in the league, and have given up the most fantasy points per minute to shooting guards. Waiters might not be this good of a player, but he is going to shoot, and we don’t really care how many he misses. He is also getting involved on defense, and picking up a few peripherals each game.

Seth Curry $9,450

Curry had a career high 10 rebounds last night, and while I am not at all expecting that again, I am expecting a nice night. The Cavs will throw Kyrie or Liggins at Curry, and he should be able to score on both. Wesley Matthews will likely play here, but Curry benefits more from the absence of Deron Williams. Yogi Ferrell will get the start, but Curry will get the bulk of minutes and shots. I expect him to be low owned, and he has plenty of upside in this match up.

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Small Forward

James Johnson $9,750

James Johnson has been below $10k for the whole season, and I will roster him every single game until he is way over it. This game against the Nets is ideal for Johnson, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see another monster game. Johnson is a do-it-all guy for the Heat, as he has seen minutes from point guard all the way to PF. The rebounds and assists will be basically free against the Nets, and he is a lock for 30 tonight. I don’t think we have seen his ceiling yet, and we will see it sometime soon. Just keep it in mind. Johnson will be my highest owned small forward in all formats.

Jaylen Brown $5,000

Jaylen Brown has seen nice minutes in 2 straight, and has produced. I don’t see a reason for the Celtics to throw him back on the bench, as he was their number 1 draft pick. The Pistons do play slow, which is concerning, but I could see them up the pace a bit tonight with Reggie Jackson and Isaiah Thomas going back and forth. Brown is just a product of the offense at this point, though he does attack and can create a shot on occasion. I would expect him to see another 25-30 minutes tonight, and that should be plenty for him to hit value at minimum price. Brown is safe in cash games, and is obviously fine in tournaments.

Power Forward

Zach Randolph $11,600

Randolph has been playing fantastic as of late, and it looks like we’re seeing a bit of a revival. The Grizzlies are a team I will be targeting a ton tonight, as they will be seeing a huge jump in pace, and have a lot of great individual match ups. Randolph will match up with the likes of Marquese Chriss and Alex Len, who are both way too weak. Z-Bo will bully both of those guys down low, and the double-double shouldn’t bee too much of a challenge, as long as he gets the minutes. He is a solid play in both formats, though he does lack a little bit of a ceiling.

Channing Frye $7,300

This one is pretty simple. Kevin Love is out, and Frye is terrific with LeBron. Frye put up almost 50 last time Love sat, and I was the only one on him. I hope the same happens tonight, as people seem to only play him when multiple stars sit. LBJ loves to target Frye at the 3 point line, and you can combine both of them tonight. This is a slate that doesn’t offer many ways to pay up, and this game has the potential to be a good game stack. It will be one of the lowest owned games, and you never know what can happen when someone is out.

Center

Marc Gasol $16,550

Gasol is just so safe. If you want to plug in 45 fantasy points, here you go. Tyson Chandler is a fine defender, but Gasol has added a 3 point shot to his arsenal and has been unstoppable lately. He is going to have another great game tonight, and will see a few more possessions as well. As mentioned a few times, these Suns play pretty fast and miss a lot of shots, which will give Gasol a chance for a few more rebounds or putbacks. The upside is huge here tonight, and we have seen Gasol go for 60 a couple times just this year. If you can’t stomach Drummond in cash, go ahead and plug in Gasol.

Andre Drummond $15,750

Drummond is personally my favorite C of the night, and am going to go down with the ship. He is one of the hardest people in the NBA to figure out, but this spot is just perfect. With Horford likely out, Drummond will be battling with guys like Jonas Jerebko and Kelly Olynyk. If you have ever watched Drummond play, you know how that will end. The Celtics already give up the 2nd most rebounds to center, and have an extremely low defensive efficiency in the paint. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 20/20 game here, and the likelihood of a flop is much lower than normal. His price is still pretty high, which should lower his ownership on DraftDay. This could be one of those games where you look and see Drummond with 55 fantasy points.

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