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Point Guard
John Wall $20,100
Wall is coming off a thriller against the Suns last night where he almost hit 60 fantasy points on DraftDay. While the back-to-back may scare a lot of people away from Wall, he is no average player. Wall has played huge minutes in B2B’s, averaging 37.5 on the season. He’s also had a better game in the second half of each B2B so far, so it doesn’t look like he’s getting too fatigued. This match-up with the Nuggets is a fantastic one in terms of pace and DFS appeal. Wall should obliterate the likes of Jameer Nelson and Jamal Murray on defense, considering they both have negative defensive ratings. The Nuggets don’t have any shutdown perimeter defender and will be forced to let Nelson and Murray do the best they can. The Nuggets also lack the presence of a rim protector, which is vital in slowing down John Wall. While Wall is expensive on both sites. he’s well worth it in cash games. You know he’ll get you 45 as a floor and has an unquestioned ceiling of 75. He may also go a bit under-owned, as it seems like a lot of people are on Isaiah and Curry, who are both similarly priced. John Wall under-owned against the Nuggets? Yes, please.
Cory Joseph $10,300
It looks like CoJo is finally readjusting to his new role. After a rough week or two in the starting lineup, Joseph has shown some signs of life. With over 20 points in 2 straight games and 30 minutes in 4 of the last 5. He should see at least 30 again against a team that can’t do much against point guards. Jrue Holiday is a decent defender on the perimeter and paint. However, he’s the only one who can stop anything on the perimeter. I could see him switching over DeMar DeRozan, who will surely draw more attention than Joseph. That will leave either E’Twaun Moore or Hollis Thompson for Joseph, which should be a bloodbath. They are both extremely inept defenders and struggle to stop anyone, let alone a fast guard that can shoot 3’s. Joseph is guaranteed to have the ball in his hands a lot, even though DeRozan will draw a lot of shots. Joseph is a guy who would go crazy when given the opportunity in the past, but I’m not really sure if the upside is there or not. He is definitely safe in cash games. If you think he still has what it takes to get hot and play big minutes in tourneys, give it a shot. We have seen it many times before.
Shooting Guard
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $10,400
It may not seem this way, but Caldwell-Pope has been pretty consistent. with 20+ FP in 8 of his last 10 and 30+ in 6 those, he has paid off value far more often than most. He now gets a match-up with the Pacers, who are atrocious against shooting guards. Giving up over 36 FP per game, the Pacers sit just 3 points behind the league-worst Nets at 39.4 points allowed. Monta Ellis has been seeing a lot of minutes at the 2, which is a good reason for the dip in defensive production. Ellis is one of the worst on-ball defenders to ever scratch an NBA floor and can be taken advantage of by every single player. If you have a chance, tune into the Pacers broadcast and just watch Monta Ellis play defense. It’s very entertaining, especially if he’s frustrated due to his shot not falling. Back to KCP, who should get to value in the 3rd quarter at just over 10k. Caldwell-Pope is also one of those weird guys who is relied on heavily by his coach. KCP has seen 47, 42, 41 and 40 minutes in just 4 of the last 10 games. KCP has a floor around 25 here with a ceiling over 40 if it stays close. I don’t see him going wrong at this price when you consider how many minutes he plays every single game.
Evan Fournier $11,700
Fournier is still just too cheap across the entire industry and I’ll keep playing him until his price goes up past 13k on DraftDay. With Serge Ibaka traded to the Raptors, Fournier is arguably the team’s best scorer outside of Vucevic. He is a guy who’s capable of scoring 20 points on a regular basis and we can see him get hot on any night. This game between the Bulls and Magic is one we will be targeting a lot, with value everywhere. It starts with Fournier, who is 1k too cheap and in a great match-up. Fournier figures to be covered by whoever replaces Wade, which will likely be either MCW or Payne. Neither are too good at defense and will struggle against a Fournier type of scorer. MCW is far too big and slow while Payne is too small and not strong enough. This game should also stay very close as Vegas has it listed at just -1.5 in favor of the Bulls. Fournier is a solid option in all formats and will be one of my highest owned SG’s across the board. Fournier is extremely safe for his price and I think we do see a few monster games out of him before the year is said and done.
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Small Forward
Jimmy Butler $18,300
With Dwyane Wade ruled as doubtful to play, Butler becomes a clear elite play. This Magic team is a phenomenal match-up for Butler, who provides a severe mismatch for anyone on the team. With Ross and Gordon being too small, I don’t know if anyone will have much success. Butler also came out less than a week ago and said he needs to start shooting more. Since, he faced the Pistons and put up 27 points against one of the slower defenses around. Butler should be able to torch this Magic team for at least 30 real-life points and 50 fantasy points. You can lock in 35 minutes with Wade out, as the Bulls simply don’t have anyone else to trust. You can expect Butler to shoot 20 times and get at least 12 combined peripherals, which gives him a floor of 40. This is also a game I would give serious consideration to games-stacking. With Wade out, these teams are very similar and I could see a very high-scoring, competitive game. This is the type of game you stack in a large-field tourney and hope for an OT or two. As for Butler, he’s an elite play everywhere. The Magic won’t be able to guard him and he’ll be forced to have the ball in his hands a ton with Wade out.
Terrence Ross $10,350
Terrence Ross has been incredible for the Magic since being traded, topping 25 fantasy points on a consistent basis. The Magic have relied on him for his 3 point shot and Ross has no problem being told to shoot. He’s also a pretty good player, so it’ll be interesting to see what he can turn into given the opportunity. With all of that being said, he might see Jimmy Butler on defense. Butler is undoubtedly one of the better defenders around and can shut down Ross if he wants. However, that would entail following Ross around off-ball screens and sweeping 3 screens. With Dwyane Wade unlikely to play, I highly doubt it. Butler will be forced to exert a ton of energy on offense and will have no interest in chasing Terence Ross for 35 minutes. I’m tempted to play Ross in just GPP’s, but the price is just too good.
Power Forward
Draymond Green $17,100
Power forward is a weird position tonight, with a lot of guys in good match-ups that are just a little bit too expensive. There are also a couple of guys who are underpriced, but I expect to bust. Draymond rarely does that, finishing with over 30 points in every game he’s seen more than 23 minutes in. This match-up with the Celtics should be a very interesting one, as I have a feeling Draymond might control the entire paint. With such intimidating forces down low like Amir Johnson and Kelly Olynyk, Green might just be too scared to go down there. Not. He is going to obliterate whatever “big man” is in his way and I see a double-double as a lock with rebounds. Green has also seen a boost with Durant out, in terms of both minutes and usage. Green is the safest option at the position with price considered and makes for a great play in all formats.
Aaron Gordon $11,450
Gordon is the 3rd of 4 Magic players and the one who might be the most popular (if Vuc is out). The Bulls struggle against athletic forwards, as they don’t have any themselves. Bobby Portis will give it a shot, but I don’t see him being athletic or fast enough to stay with Gordon. Jimmy Butler might actually have the best shot, but Gordon will still post him up and be effective simply due to size. As such a match-up problem for the Bulls, Gordon should take advantage. While he is one of the more infuriating players to roster at times, he’s been more consistent lately. With 30 fantasy points in 4 of his last 5, Gordon may have finally found his groove. He also sees a bump with Vucevic out as his minutes get locked in and his usage sees a bump. Gordon is a guy I’m willing to play in all formats, though it will be a tough decision on what Magic guys to play.
Center
DeMarcus Cousins $20,100
Cousins has transitioned well to the Pelicans, putting up 45 points on a consistent basis with 2 upside games. He also scored 27 fantasy points against the Jazz, which speaks more to Rudy Gobert and his ridiculous defense than it does on Cousins. He gets a much better match-up tonight Jonas Valanciunas, who will be a big difference from Gobert. Cousins has dominated Valanciunas while in Sacramento, finishing with 2 games over 30 real-life points. He has seen a slight usage dip since being in New Orleans, but that was obviously expected. It seems to me like both Davis and Cousins are getting along and playing good basketball, which is what we need from a guy who see his 3rd suspension of the season the next time he acts up. Center is also a pretty interesting spot as a whole on this slate, as there could be some very nice value options that open up along the way. With so many ways to spend up, don’t feel forced to use C0usins. If you think someone cheaper will be a better pt. per $ play, which is certainly possible, then don’t hesitate to play them. However, it’s also possible he goes for 70 and blows away the entire position. In that case, make sure you have some exposure.
Bismack Biyombo $8,900
To be clear, this pick is contingent on Nikola Vucevic being ruled out. If Vuc plays, Biyombo is completely off the board and a guy that doesn’t have much appeal. If Vucevic misses, this whole slate changes. Bismack Biymobo will become the most popular play at C, which will drive down the ownership of the more expensive guys at C. In turn, the more expensive guys at other positions will also be higher owned, as the common man has more money to spend elsewhere. That’s not to say I won’t be part of that crowd, though, as Biyombo is just an elite play if he’s gonna see 35 or more minutes. The Bulls are a very weak team down low, especially after losing Taj Gibson, who had a little bit of muscle and power. Robin Lopez will just get bullied by Biyombo on the glass all game long. If Vuc plays, ignore this. If Vuc is out, play Biyombo in cash.
Update – Vucevic has been ruled out. You can roll out Biyombo in all formats.
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