Triple Crown Race: Chris Davis' HR Pace Dropping, Miguel Cabrera Lurks

By David Fouty
Chris Davis Baltimore Orioles
David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

For a while, it seemed like Chris Davis was going to approach rarefied air in the home run category; but his pace is slowing, and Miguel Cabrera remains just four home runs behind him despite having to miss a couple games with a hip injury.

Davis has hit just three home runs since August 14. Cabrera has hit six home runs in the same span despite having to miss four games due to his hip/groin injury.

Davis has really only had one other home run “drought”, if you can call it that.  He went 10 games without a home run after the home run derby. He hit 37 home runs before the All-Star break, but has hit just 10 since. Cabrera is tied for the league lead in home runs after the break with 13.

The Baltimore Orioles have played two games less than the Detroit Tigers, but that may not be enough. Cabrera has hit a home run in every 9.6 at-bats since the All-Star break. Davis’ home run pace has dropped from one home run for every 9.2 at-bats prior to the All-Star break to one every 15.4 at-bats after.  Since August 14, Davis has hit just one home run for every 22 at-bats.

Cabrera also got off to a slow pace in April, tallying just four home runs to Davis’ nine, but that isn’t out of the norm for Cabrera. In 2012, Cabrera tallied just nine home runs over the first two months of the season, but gradually worked up to his highest monthly total of 10 in September.

In other words, Cabrera is generally a more nimble player in the beginning of the season than he is by the end of it.

If healthy, there’s a good chance Cabrera could still catch Davis in home runs. It seems unlikely that Cabrera would suddenly experience a drought of his own, seeing as he’s been hitting them throughout his injury anyway. If he was going to lose any power, it seems likely that it would have already happened.

Related Links:

Miguel Cabrera in Good Shape to Chase Triple Crown After Days Off
Is Miguel Cabrera the Most Undervalued Triple Crown Winner Ever?
Chris Davis Powering Toward 61 Despite Strikeout Total

David Fouty is a columnist for Follow him on Twitter @davefouty, “Like” him on Facebook and add him to your network on Google.

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