San Francisco Giants’ Magic Number, Scenarios For 2014 MLB Playoffs
By John Shea
@real_johnshea
Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY SPORTS
The playoff hopeful-San Francisco Giants (84-71) are essentially guaranteed the chance of advancing to the NLDS courtesy of the highly mediocre National League. After getting swept by the San Diego Padres over the weekend, the Giants look incapable of completing yet another October triumph.
The hapless Giants currently have a 99.0 percent chance of earning a spot in the NL Wild Card Game, according to ESPN. At the moment, the Giants’ magic number resides at three. The inevitable one-game showdown between the Giants and Pittsburgh Pirates (84-71) will determine who earns the right to take on the NL leading-Washington Nationals in the division series.
The Milwaukee Brewers (80-76) remain mathematically alive in the Hunt for October, but they would realistically need to win their six remaining games to have a microscopic chance of overtaking either the Giants or Pirates. Both Wild Card leaders are still in contention for their respective division crowns, although their chances of avoiding the play-in game are slim.
The Giants have made the final week of the season more stressful than it needed to be. Manager Bruce Bochy could face the difficult decision of whether or not to start Madison Bumgarner in the regular season finale if the Giants remain in an identical tie with the Pirates for the top Wild Card spot.
If the Giants and Pirates finish the season with the exact same record, the Pirates would claim home field advantage in the Wild Card game by default. Pittsburgh won the season series against the Giants, taking four of six games. It’s difficult to imagine a situation where the Giants do not have a clear-cut advantage over the Pirates if Bumgarner starts, regardless of where the game is played. That reality could prompt Bochy to take his chances with a spot starter in place of Bumgarner on the season’s final day.
Bumgarner is the Giants’ best chance to advance to the division series. The 25-year-old staff ace has been rock solid down the stretch, posting a perfect 4-0 record with a 1.59 ERA over his last five starts. Over the course of his career, Bumgarner owns a 1-3 mark with a 3.24 ERA in four starts against the Pirates.
One of MadBum’s worst performances of the season happened at home against the Pirates in July. He allowed five runs on six hits while surviving just four innings in an eventual 5-0 loss. Since then, Bumgarner has registered a 6-1 record while posting double-digit strikeout totals three times.
If the Giants beat the Pirates, they will be at a severe disadvantage against the Nationals, who flaunt an impressive core of starting pitchers who will almost assuredly give the Giants fits. The Giants need a strong do-or-die performance from Bumgarner to get to the NLDS, but baseball’s legitimate first round could be the end of the line for San Francisco in 2014.
John Shea is an MLB writer for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @real_johnshea. Like him on Facebook or add him to your network on Google.
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