Milwaukee Brewers Should Consider Trading Kyle Lohse
By Brad Berreman
@bradberreman24
Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
After a very good start to the season, the Milwaukee Brewers fell from playoff contention and the only solace they can take from 2014 is a winning record (82-80). General manager Doug Melvin has already made a move to try to improve things for 2015, acquiring first baseman Adam Lind from the Toronto Blue Jays for pitcher Marco Estrada on Saturday, but he should not be done making deals this offseason.
Kyle Lohse had a very good season for the Brewers in 2014, going 13-9 with a 3.54 ERA over 31 starts (198.1 innings). He had a 1.17 ERA over his final three starts of the season (23 innings), highlighted by a two-hit shutout of the St. Louis Cardinals in his final outing. Lohse has been one of the most reliable starters in all of baseball, with at least 30 starts, 188 innings pitched and an ERA below 3.60 in each of the last four seasons, including the last two with Milwaukee.
But peripheral numbers show Lohse to be an fairly ordinary pitcher, with a 6.4 K/9 rate and a 2.0 BB/9 rate this past season, and fortune has been on his side with a BABIP (Batting Average On Balls In Play) allowed of .276 or lower in four straight seasons. Lohse has been very durable throughout his career, with at least 30 starts in a season 10 times since 2002, but at age-36 a downturn could come quickly.
Estrada made 18 starts for the Brewers in 2014, but the team still has plenty of options for the starting rotation. Yovani Gallardo, Wily Peralta and Matt Garza are locked into the top three spots in the rotation next year, while Mike Fiers and Jimmy Nelson could either compete for one spot during spring training or be in line to fill the final two spots.
Lohse is slated to become a free agent after the 2015 season, so if the Brewers are not in contention and he’s pitching well again he’ll become a popular trade target. But I think Melvin needs to get ahead of the curve and consider dealing Lohse this winter, since his performance may decline dramatically at any point and that looming drop-off will take the right-hander’s trade value down with it.
Brad Berreman is a Columnist at Rant Sports.com. Follow him on Twitter.
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