MLB San Francisco Giants

Tim Lincecum Will Become A Dominant Reliever For San Francisco Giants

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By @real_johnshea

Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

Barring an unforeseen acquisition, the San Francisco Giants will enter the 2015 season with four question marks clouding their starting rotation, including two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum. Although “The Freak” has been dominant in stretches (see his 30.1 shutout innings streak from last season), the Giants’ former ace is shades of his former self, in large part due to a severe decrease in velocity.

The Giants need Lincecum to become a permanent factor if they’re going to contend for the NL West crown in 2015. Even though Lincecum no longer pounds the zone with two-seam fastballs exceeding 95 mph, he’s capable of being an effective pitcher when able to locate that pitch. Most of Lincecum’s struggles have been chalked up to a sharp decline in pitch speed, but command has dogged the 30-year-old veteran for big chunks of the past three seasons.

It’s possible — and widely talked about on the social media-sphere — that Lincecum is best suited for a bullpen role in the late innings. The Giants are hesitant to prematurely make that switch, and rightfully so. Even though Lincecum has been willingly adaptable over recent postseason runs, it’s unknown if he has serious interest in becoming a permanent relief pitcher. The $18 million price tag attached to his name also understandably makes the Giants more apt to trying anything they can to remake “The Freak” into a productive starter.

Steamer projections indicate that Lincecum will — at some point — adopt a relief role in 2015. Lincecum posted his first winning record since 2010 last season (12-9), but he also recorded an inefficient 4.74 ERA. According to Steamer projections, Lincecum will start 25 games in the upcoming season before giving way to a bullpen role. He’s projected to register a 9-10 record with a 4.01 ERA and 147 strikeouts over 169.0 innings in 50 appearances.

If those metrics prove accurate, Lincecum would be significantly more effective out of the bullpen than as a starter. Throughout his career, Lincecum has become less dependent on the fastball. He threw the two-seamer on just 31.2 percent of his pitches last year while averaging a modest 89.6 mph, according to FanGraphs. His complementary pitches have become more effective as he’s grown as a pitcher, as indicated by his reliance on the slider, which he threw on 26.1 percent of his pitches in 2014.

The consistent year-to-year dip in Lincecum’s velocity could be mitigated by a relief role. Giants setup man Sergio Romo has excelled throughout his career without ever consistently exceeding 90 mph on the radar gun. His no-dot slider enables him to use the fastball as a complement when effective. For Lincecum, the inverse is reality. His secondary pitches are typically only effective when he’s able to spot the fastball on the corners.

The Giants ultimately have a difficult decision to make regarding the future of Lincecum, who could be entering his final season in San Francisco. His epic performance out of the bullpen in the 2012 postseason showed that he’s capable of being a dominant reliever. It may be time to make that switch permanent.

John Shea is an MLB writer for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @real_johnshea. Like him on Facebook or add him to your network on Google.

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