Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
At first glance, Felix Hernandez‘s stats this year don’t look all that bad: a 3.24 ERA, 92 strikeouts in 97.1 innings pitched so far, a 10-4 record and 1.5 WAR (measured by Fangraphs). However, it’s pretty clear that the Seattle Mariners ace is drastically underperforming himself, as his peripherals demonstrate. That 3.24 ERA would not only be his highest since 2011, but FIP pegs him even higher at 3.54; his home runs allowed per nine innings is a staggering 0.92; his walks per nine are also sky-high at 2.59, his highest total since 2009.
What is Hernandez doing differently to get to these numbers?
Don’t get me wrong, I can think of plenty of pitchers (many in his own division) who would probably kill to have his stats, but this is very out of character for the man dubbed King Felix. He hasn’t been unlucky with balls in play, as his .256 BABIP shows. He’s inducing grounders and stranding opposing runners at rates in line with his career averages. His WHIP remains low, meaning that he isn’t giving up many more hits and walks than usual. So what the heck is going on?
The only thing Hernandez appears to have changed is his reliance on the slider. He normally throws it about 11 percent of the time; this year, the pitch only accounts for 3.9 percent of what he throws — it’s also lost a bit of speed, from 84.5 MPH last year to 84.2 this season. It’s no secret that the slider puts more stress on a pitcher’s arm than any other pitch, but Hernandez seems mightily reluctant to throw it nowadays. He’s throwing his curveball a little more than usual, although it’s lost a tick of velocity as well.
His woes could also be chronological. Coming into June, he had a 1.91 ERA on the year, but after blowout losses to the New York Yankees and Houston Astros (the latter of which saw him give up eight runs in just one-third of an inning) it now sits at the previously mentioned 3.24. After giving up 15 runs total coming into June, he’s given up 20 runs since (including four last night to the Kansas City Royals), his worst month since he allowed 22 runs in August 2013. He hasn’t recorded more than six strikeouts in a game since the month began, but he’s allowed 13 walks compared to the 15 free passes he issued in April and May combined.
It would be unfair to Hernandez to expect this as the new norm. Every pitcher goes through rough patches every season, including those on a Hall of Fame track such as Hernandez. He doesn’t appear to be laboring on the mound, nor does he look especially fatigued. If it’s an injury, it would seem to be something minor. Whatever it may be, it’s obvious that something is wrong with Hernandez. If the Mariners are to rebound this year, he’ll be crucial to that success, so getting him right needs to be the team’s top priority.
Perry Rosenbaum is a featured writer for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Facebook or on Twitter @PerryFRosenbaum
