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It’s great that the Arizona Diamondbacks added Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller this offseason. However, adding Miller came with a cost. While many prognosticators are predicting a dominant season for the Diamondbacks, it bares a closer examination.
Let’s start by taking a closer look at the Diamondbacks’ offseason. Their only two MLB free agent signings were Greinke and setup man Tyler Clippard. Having traded Chase Anderson to get Jean Segura and losing David Hernandez to free agency means these are a pair of upgrades, but not additions. Greinke will win more games than Anderson, but it isn’t clear how many more of Greinke’s starts Arizona will win once the ace is out of the game.
In trades, Arizona sent away Anderson, outfielder Ender Inciarte and second baseman Aaron Hill to get Shelby Miller, Jean Segura and prospect Tyler Wagner. The net effect of all of these moves was to add a starting pitcher and to subtract a productive outfielder. Replacing Hill with Segura means that Chris Owings has to move from short to second, which leads to an offensive hole at the keystone.
Meanwhile, the outfield will have a new feel with Yasmany Tomas playing right field starting at the beginning of the season. David Peralta will be able to remain in left for the entire season and A.J. Pollock will be able to continue to play a plus center field. Moving Inciarte will allow Jake Lamb to stay at third with Tomas’ permanent move to right. All three outfielders and Lamb are expected to be a cause for increased offensive production, but with Owings at second and Welington Castillo behind the plate, will the difference be enough?
The Diamondbacks gave up a lot of talent and money to sell themselves as a team on the move. With the loss of talent for this year and in the future, Arizona won’t be going much of anywhere. Greinke will be worth about four more wins, but the rest of these moves are just window dressing. The Diamondbacks will end up a disappointing 83-79 in 2016.
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