2016 NCAA Tournament Preview: No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 16 Florida Gulf Coast

Coming off of a 96-65 destruction of Fairleigh Dickinson in the First Four, the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles will be looking to use that momentum to slay the dragon that is the North Carolina Tar Heels. If successful, the Eagles would become the first No. 16 seed in NCAA tournament history to beat a No. 1 seed.

In the win over Fairleigh Dickinson, the Eagles jumped out to a 21-point halftime lead and never looked back. Junior forward Marc Eddy Norelia led the team with 20 points, 10 rebounds and five assists while guards Julian DeBose and Christian Terrell chipped in 14 apiece. The Eagles constantly exploited the zone of the Knights by getting the ball to Norelia at the free-throw line and letting him make the right decision from there.

Against the Tar Heels, the Eagles will be facing a lot of man-to-man. That means they will have to work the ball around and use picks and cuts to get open shots. It will also be imperative for Florida Gulf Coast to knock down three-pointers. The Eagles shot 8-0f-23 against the Knights and will likely need double-digit three-point makes to pull the upset.

The Tar Heels, meanwhile, enter their first-round game playing their best basketball of the season. Roy Williams‘ club has won five in a row since a Feb. 27 loss at the hands of the Virginia Cavaliers. Three of those wins came in last week’s ACC tournament as North Carolina beat Virginia 61-57 in the championship game.

North Carolina is led by senior forward Brice Johnson who’s averaging 16.6 points and 10.6 rebounds on the season. The Tar Heels’ biggest issue has been getting consistent play from the rest of the roster. Senior guard Marcus Paige has had a miserable season since returning from an early-season injury, shooting just 39 percent from the field. The Tar Heels will only go as far as the role players will take them.

I love how Florida Gulf Coast plays and I love their tenacity. They’re a really talented team, but I would’ve felt better about their chances of upsetting a No. 1 seed if they were playing Virginia and not North Carolina. The Tar Heels are too talented inside to get picked apart by the Eagles like Fairleigh Dickinson. Look for Johnson to have a monster game as North Carolina advances.

Prediction: North Carolina 80, Florida Gulf Coast 63