Graph Devaluing First-Round NFL QB Draft Picks Doesn’t Tell The Whole Story

How do 1st-rd QB’s affect #NFL winning %? Great work from @TreyScott247 and @TweetThatTed: http://t.co/2MU1WiglAg pic.twitter.com/WI5jC9pR5M

— Allan Bell (@AllanBell247) May 11, 2015

Numbers don’t lie, but they can tell some pretty convoluted fibs.

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I love data and I love infographics, but before I go any further, I want to thank CBS’ 247 Sports for the hard work that went into this fascinating graphic above and reproduced below. Their appended story can be found here.

Now let’s get dirty.

First Round QB vs Win Percentage — Twitter

When analyzing data, it’s prudent to set your findings against a control variable, tease out the noise and achieve normalized results. Apologies for the jargon barf, but following this procedure is what distills data to its most consumable (and least misleading) form.

How do we normalize what we see above? By controlling for Tom Brady. The New England Patriots QB is a massive outlier. Brady, a sixth-round draft pick, has played for one team over 15 seasons and for 209 games, and when Brady isn’t improperly deflating footballs, the Patriots QB is skewing data tremendously.

New England Patriots Confident In Their ‘Plan B’ To Brady

Visible, but not necessarily highlighted on the graph is the impact of what the Indianapolis Colts have done. Two first-round picks, two franchise quarterbacks: Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning, and the fifth-best winning percentage in the NFL since 1995. Although the Colts were incredibly lukcy, incredibly shrewd, or both, this is the case against the case against drafting first-round quarterbacks.

This is an excellent graph, and it beautifully (and accurately) displays the Cleveland Browns‘ incompetence as a franchise, but when you read it, be sure to not betray your skepticism. A home run is a home run, regardless of where it’s hit in the draft.

Jerry Landry is a writer for www.RantSports.com. Follow Jerry on Twitter at @Jerry2Landry, “Like” him on Facebook or add him on Google.