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Just a few short days after the 2013 NFL Draft, fantasy football owners were very excited about the Denver Broncos rookie running back Montee Ball. I understand why too. A talented back who thrived in college joining a high-octane offense with some serious potential. What’s not to like? However, with training camp underway, Ball’s value is slowly continuing to slip, and fantasy owners need to pump the brakes on the love for the rookie.
With veteran Willis McGahee released, everyone assumed that Ball would be the featured back with Ronnie Hillman seeing third down work. However, if training camp is any indication, Hillman may be the guy in Denver. It has been Hillman, not Ball, who has been running with the first team during camp, and reports out of Denver indicate that Hillman has been making some serious strides in pass protection, something that is very important in a Peyton Manning offense. Between the combination of Hillman impressing and Ball struggling in camp, there is no reason for fantasy owners to believe that the rookie will immediately be the featured back. Many people actually foresaw this predicament coming, as head coach John Fox has historically favored implementing multiple-back offensive styles. Look back to his days in Carolina where he had guys like DeShaun Foster and Stephen Davis both post over 150 carries in 2005. More recently, Fox also used both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart quite often, both seeing over 200 carries in 2009. As for rookies, only one rookie back (Stewart) has ever posted over 100 carries in their inaugural campaign, so there is reason to believe Ball may not be the explosive rookie right away. If Fox didn’t release the reigns on guys like Stewart and Williams, who were more coveted rookie backs than Ball, why should we assume he will in Denver?
I’m not sold.
If you are looking for a guy with touchdown potential, I do like Ball. I fully expect him to be this team’s short yardage back in 2013, and playing alongside Manning and that high-powered offense, the opportunity should be they often. Last season. Denver finished inside the top-10 in rushing touchdowns and rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line. I think Ball has the ability to post similar numbers as Michael Turner did in 2012 (800 yards. 10 TDs). As much as Denver has been rushing inside the red zone, this team still wants to throw the football, and with weapons galore at Manning’s arsenal, why shouldn’t they? With that being said, Hillman has been the better back in terms of pass protection, which could make him a better option inside the 20′s.
This is certainly one of the most intriguing training camp storylines in terms of fantasy impact. Sadly, I see this situation unfolding into that dreaded word; Committee. In certain situations, we will see a lot of the rookie, and in others, Hillman will continue to stay on the field. I expect fantasy owners, at times, to resemble Ball’s ADP from over the past month or so. It will be up-and-d0wn.
I fully expect a low yardage total with a strong possibility for double digit touchdowns from Ball in his first season in the big leagues. Certainly not terrible, especially if he is involved in a platoon situation, but he definitely shouldn’t be a top-20 fantasy running back as of right now.
Adam Pfeifer is a featured fantasy sports columnist for Rant Sports.
You can follow him on Twitter @aPfeiferRS.
