Russell Martin Gives Toronto Blue Jays Potential Boost To Get Over AL East Hump

By Brad Faber @Brad_Faber on November 21, 2014

This week, the Toronto Blue Jays made headlines when they inked Ontario native Russell Martin to a five-year, $82 million deal. Although it may indeed seem like a big commitment for a soon-to-be 32-year-old catcher, there is plenty that Martin should be able to bring to the table for the Blue Jays.

Although Martin’s claim to fame is his defense, it is worth taking a look at the value he may be able to provide from an offensive standpoint as well.

Martin is coming off of one of his better seasons at the plate, putting up a line of .290/.402/.430 with 11 home runs, 67 RBIs and 140 wRC+ in a 5.3 fWAR campaign for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2014. Some have argued it may have in fact been his best season with the bat since his early years with the Los Angeles Dodgers, particularly his 2007 campaign when he led all NL catchers with a still career-best 5.5 fWAR at the age of 24.

It was a slightly different type of year for Martin in 2014, however, as he hit for a little bit less power than he did in 2013 and when he was with the New York Yankees from 2011-2012. In addition to putting up a slightly lower home run total, Martin posted a .140 ISO, which happened to be his lowest mark since his final season with the Dodgers back in 2010, when he posted an ISO of 0.85. It may also be relevant to note that Martin only played in 111 games in 2014, his lowest total of the past four seasons.

Martin certainly did hit for a much higher batting average in 2014 than he has in recent years, though. Despite having only 379 at-bats, his 110 base hits marked his highest total since he racked up 126 base knocks with the Dodgers back in 2009 as well.

Martin also had much better luck on balls in play in 2014, posting a career-high .336 BABIP. As seen in the chart below, 2014 marked the first year that Martin posted a BABIP above the league average since 2008. Obviously, he may have been getting a bit fortuitous, which can often be the case with an elevated BABIP, and it will remain to be seen whether or not that level of success is sustainable.

Although Martin’s track record does suggest that his batting average may regress in 2015, his power numbers may get a slight bump as he will now be playing his home games at Rogers Centre, which has a bit of a reputation for being amenable to right-handed punch. Fangraphs’ Steamer projects him to slash .242/.341/.405 with 18 home runs and 63 RBIs in 2015.

It should also be noted that Martin’s most impressive offensive statistic in 2014 may have very well been his .402 on-base percentage, which set a new career-high for him and was ranked first among all catchers in MLB with a minimum of 450 plate appearances. So it will indeed be interesting to see if Martin can continue getting on base at such an impressive clip as well.

Meanwhile, Martin’s .370 wOBA also ranked second among catchers behind only Buster Posey of the San Francisco Giants, who put up a .371 mark.

Martin’s offense aside, however, his most valuable asset is still most likely his ability to provide stellar glove work behind the dish. Even when Martin was scuffling at the plate, particularly from 2009-2012, when his wRC+ reached the league-average mark of 100 only once, he was still posting a positive fWAR in the range of 1.4-2.7 each year as a result of his superb defense.

Since joining the Pirates prior to the 2013 campaign, Martin has led all catchers in baseball with 28 defensive runs saved, according to Fangraphs. The Blue Jays’ starting catcher in 2014, Dioner Navarro, was good for only one DRS last season, and he has accumulated a total of just two over the past two seasons with the Blue Jays and Chicago Cubs.

Martin also leads all catchers in baseball with a 37.5 Def since the beginning of the 2013 season, placing him ahead of Salvador Perez of the Kansas City Royals, who checks in at second with a 33.1 mark.

Part of this is because the Canadian’s arm is a significant weapon behind the plate. In 2014, Martin threw out 39 percent of would-be basestealers. On the other hand, former starter Navarro threw out only 21 percent, which was below the AL average of 27 percent. Josh Thole, who is R.A. Dickey‘s personal catcher, threw out only 15 percent.

Overall, the Blue Jays had a caught stealing percentage of 20.34, which ranked 14th in the AL and 28th in baseball. The addition of Martin should certainly help Toronto inch closer to the top in that regard.

In 2014, Martin also posted a mark of six rSB, or Stolen Base Runs Saved, which is another metric that Fangraphs uses, tying him with Welington Castillo for first in baseball. In 2013, Martin posted a mark of nine rSB, and his 15 over the past two seasons ranks first in baseball over Castillo, who has accumulated a mark of 10.

Martin has drawn praise for his pitch-framing ability too. According to StatCorner, Martin had an oStr, which measures the number of pitches that were called strikes outside of the strike zone, of 8.7 percent in 2014, ranking him fifth in baseball among catchers with a minimum sample size of 7,000 pitches caught. Navarro, on the other hand, checked in at a 6.6 mark.

The switch-hitting Navarro did have a nice season with the bat in 2014, putting up a line of .274/.317/.395 with 12 home runs and 69 RBIs, and the Blue Jays may still want to keep him around as a backup or to help DH. After all, Navarro did in fact post fWARs of 1.8 and 2.0 in 2013 and 2014 respectively. The man that Navarro took over for, J.P. Arencibia, never posted an fWAR higher than 1.1, and he received a -0.6 mark during his final season with the Jays in 2013.

Furthermore, Thole has not had a positive fWAR since 2011, when he posted a 0.7 mark for the New York Mets. Toronto also appears likely to lose another player who posted a 2.6 fWAR last season in free agent outfielder Melky Cabrera.

Therefore, perhaps the Blue Jays should consider letting Martin and Navarro figure out how to handle Dickey’s knuckleball as the duo could conceivably combine for 6.0-plus fWAR in 2015. However, Thole and Dickey do have a rather lengthy partnership, and Navarro is reportedly interested in being traded somewhere where he can continue being an everyday catcher, so it remains to be seen how that will play out.

While concerns that the Blue Jays overpaid for Martin will likely remain, it is obvious that he possessed a set of rare, in-demand skills in the current market. He was by far and away the best free agent catcher available, which helps explain why he was able to cash in the way he did. Toronto should clearly benefit from Martin providing top-of-the-line defense behind the plate, which is something the club has not had.

The dynamics of Martin’s contract are also worth taking a look at as well. He will reportedly be making $7 million in 2015, $15 million in 2016 and then $20 million in the final three years of the deal. If Martin does have another 5.0 fWAR campaign in him for 2015, it will mean that the Blue Jays will be paying an average of just $1.4 million per “win above replacement” in year No. 1.

For a quick comparison, many felt that slugger Nelson Cruz was an absolute steal when he gave the Baltimore Orioles a 3.9 fWAR campaign for $8 million last year. Granted, Cruz was only signed to a one-year deal, and Martin will still be owed $75 million after his first year with the Blue Jays, but it is worth noting given the flexibility that Martin’s salary will give Toronto in 2015. Cruz will most likely, however, be receiving a rather sizable payday from someone this offseason as well.

While the type of bat that Toronto will be getting in Martin does appear to be somewhat of a mystery, his offense should be viewed as secondary to his defensive prowess. It is certainly fair to question the type of player Martin will be in 2019, when he will be making $20 million at the age of 36, but he should be able to do some great things for the Blue Jays, especially in the first few years of his contract.

The Blue Jays also showed that they were very close to getting over the hump in 2014, posting an 83-79 record and finishing in third place in the AL East. Toronto’s window to compete may very well be right now.In addition to everything else, Martin provides veteran leadership, and he has now been to the postseason in each of the past four seasons with the Yankees and Pirates.

Seeing as how the Blue Jays have not been to the postseason since winning back-to-back World Series titles in 1992 and 1993, they will probably be more than happy to pay Martin what he is owed if he can help them get there.

All statistics courtesy of Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, ESPN.com and StatCorner  

Brad Faber is a Detroit Tigers writer and Sabermetrics columnist for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @Brad_Faber, “Like” him on Facebook, or add him to your network on LinkedIn or Google.