Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
The Seattle Mariners are faced with a problem that most teams would love to have this offseason. The top and middle of the starting rotation is pretty much set with Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Wade Miley and Taijuan Walker. The last spot in the rotation is seen as pretty much up for grabs though, as the Mariners have a surplus of No. 5 starters in Nathan Karns, James Paxton, Vidal Nuno and Mike Montgomery. Each has their own upside, a place for them to fit if they don’t make the rotation, and downsides to each placement.
Karns would seem to be the favorite of the group, considering he was a reliable starter for the Tampa Bay Rays last season and he is the only one on the list that was not inherited by the new regime. It is still possible that Karns is sent down to Triple-A to start the season, but considering his progress in MLB, it would probably be seen as a setback. A 3.67 ERA in 26 starts last season doesn’t hurt his case either. Having Karns in the last spot could easily work and is most likely the case considering Jerry Dipoto’s remarks about him.
Montgomery is the only one who is out of options and can’t be sent down without the risk of him being picked up by another team, which would more than likely occur. The bullpen could be an option for him, but he has shown a lot of upside to being in the rotation. His 4.60 ERA in 16 starts isn’t pretty, but he has shown flashes of brilliance. In June, he pitched a complete game shutout with no walks against the eventual World Series winning Kansas City Royals. It is more than likely he will start in the bullpen and become a sixth starter of sorts, filling in when needed.
Nuno has been a bit of anomaly since arriving in Seattle via trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks. He had stellar numbers in Arizona (1.88 ERA, 1.04 WHIP), but after arriving to Seattle midway through the season, his stats weren’t as impressive (4.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP). Add to that the fact that he wasn’t acquired by Dipoto and his chances of making the rotation are the worst. He could end up a nice piece in the bullpen or start the season in Triple-A, which is where he probably belongs.
Paxton is the guy I would slot in the last spot. Paxton’s problem has never really been his ability, although last season he did post his worst stats (3.90 ERA, 1.43 WHIP). His problem has been that he is one the Mariners’ most injury-prone players, with last year’s finger injury costing him considerable time in the rotation. If he can stay healthy, he has the potential to be a No. 3 pitcher in any rotation. Although it would be nice to see someone drafted by the Mariners actually stick around for their best years, a good year from Paxton makes him either a huge bargaining chip next offseason or a mainstay in the rotation for years to come.
Luckily for the Mariners, they do not have to make a decision now and there is still the entire spring training to make final decisions. But it’s nice to know that the Mariners’ biggest problem at this point is having too much of something rather than the spot most teams find themselves in where they need some help.
